2010 coming in very cold.

As we close out 2009 we must think back at some of the most memorable weather moments of the year. The one that comes to my mind is the Major winter storm that hit the east coast the week of December 19th. This storm was historic in some instances setting many storm totals as well as records for a 24 hour period. Tell me what is the most memorable weather moments you remember from 09. Well it looks as if north and central Alabama might see a few snow flurries around day break as a weak system is moving East out of Mississippi at around 40 mph but should not be a problem.Once again Alabama will be in a cold Grasp over the next 7-10 days with highs in the low 30s and lows in the teens and even a few single digits are expected in some places. While there is no official snow forecast right now anything can happen with the cold spell we are about to experience.

Cold Start to the New Year

Well as 2009 comes to a close we began 2010 on a cold note. It looks as if the Highs over the weekend will be the coldest in awhile. Saturday may struggle to get above freezing and Sunday will stay in the 30s as well. There is still a slim chance for a few snow flurries on Friday, but it should not be a problem.

More Wintry Weather Chances

Midnight Thursday

6am Friday

Well As we bring 2009 to an end we will see a few more chances for Winter weather. Clouds will start to get thicker as another low forms near the Texas coast and a trough moves in from the SW. We may see some sleet early Wednesday if enough moisture can reach us in the morning hours, does not look problematic but is worth watching non the less.As the low moves in our direction on Wednesday we could see a decent rain event, some models show a brief change to freezing rain sometime Wednesday but they are inconsistent with that and it looks like mostly rain. The main trough moves in on Thursday and it still shows the hint for some snowfall Thursday night into Friday morning with a dusting to a few inches possible. Note the GFS outlook for Thursday and Friday it seems to have significant snows near and south of interstate 20-59. The HPC has painted the bulk of the rain near the Gulf coast as has been the trend with theses systems. This is not a cry for all to rush to the grocery store by any means just a little heads up that Winter is far from over. I hope everyone has a wonderful New Year and I will post more as needed.

Latest GFS Models

Noon Wednesday

Midnight Wednesday

Looks Like a Stormy Christmas Eve.

Well mother nature has thrown a curve ball. It now looks more and more likely that we may have a Pre-Christmas severe weather event for portions of the Southeast. As of right now the SPC has out-looked almost all the lower Mississippi River Valley for severe weather on Wednesday. The guys at the SPC have not placed any parts of Alabama un an outlook area YET, but that may change in a day or two. The HPC has a 4" bullseye Just south of Tupelo Mississippi, looks as if we may get 1"-2" over the next 5 days. If the weather looks to be worse on Wednesday than Thursday I will more than likely by chasing in Mississippi on Wednesday. Stay tuned for more info on this situation. For all the snow lovers here are some of the higher totals from the east coast storm.

New york:
PATCHOGUE - 11.6
UPTON - 11.3
SOUTHAMPTON - 10.7
EAST NORTHPORT - 10.5
LIDO BEACH - 10
BELLMORE - 9.8

Virginia:
WINTERGREEN - 30
STUARTS DRAFT - 28.8
WAYNESBORO - 28
LINDEN - 26.8
FISHERSVILLE - 26
INDIAN VALLEY - 26
RAINELLE - 25
JUMPING - 24
ROCK - 24
CENTREVILLE - 23
CROZET - 23
COVINGTON - 22.6
COVESVILLE - 22.3
BERRYVILLE - 22
GREENVILLE - 22
MILLBORO - 22
STAUNTON - 22
GREAT FALLS - 21.7
MUSTOE - 21.5
OPAL - 21.5
AFTON - 21
BLUEMONT - 21
CHARLOTTESVILLE - 21
FRONT ROYAL - 21
LURAY - 21
ROCKY BAR - 21
ARLINGTON - 20.5
MASSANUTTEN - 20.5
SINGERS GLEN - 20.5
VIENNA - 20.5
CAVE SPRING - 20
CHANTILLY - 20
CLIFTON FORGE - 20
GROTTOES - 20
RESTON - 20
SHADWELL - 20

West Virginia:
MARLINTON - 28
MILL POINT - 28
FRIARS HILL - 25
HORSE SHOE RUN - 25
RAINELLE - 25
SLATY FORK - 25
HENDRICKS - 24
JUMPING - 24
OAK HILL - 24
ROCK - 24
CANAAN VALLEY STATE - 22
SPRINGFIELD - 22
WILLIAMSBURG - 22
CRAIGSVILLE - 21
GRANDVIEW - 21
KEYSER - 21
VANVILLE - 21
BECKLEY - 20
LEHEW - 20
MARTINSBURG - 20
MOUNT LOOKOUT - 20
SHENANDOAH JUNCTION - 20

New Jersey:
TABERNACLE - 21
CHERRY HILL - 20
NEWPORT - 20
SEWELL - 19.5
SOUTHAMPTON - 19.5
CROSS KEYS - 19
TURNERSVILLE - 19

DC. (the mall)
THE MALL 16.0

Maryland:
ANNAPOLIS 20.8
OWINGS 1 NNE 20.0
CATONSVILLE 20.5
GUNPOWDER 1 WSW 20.5

These are just a few of the higher totals reported. As with all systems some places may have more but just not reported as of yet.

Still Watching Next Week

Well with the crippling snow storm hitting the upper east coast, I turn my attention to next week. Yes there will be another major storm hitting the US but there is so much model madness right now between the 12Z runs of the GFS and the ECMWF. The American Model shows the low up north somewhere near the Chicago area, while the European Models shows it further south in Mississippi. Someone is going to get slammed with a pre-Christmas snow storm, and others are going to get rain and storms. As others have mentioned the pattern seems to favor the Southern track as well as the forecasters from the HPC. The last run last night of the 00Z GFS looks favorable for snow in North Alabama on Christmas Eve, but that is another way to prove the models change with every run. By late Sunday into early Monday we should almost be able to stamp it down with more precision. If this does turn out to be a snow event for Alabama or even a severe threat, I will be streaming live at www.dixiealleyadventures.com just click my live stream link.

Next Week Severe Threat???

The SPC has outlined day 6 ( Which is Christmas Eve Eve) for possible severe storms. Remember last Christmas Eve a EF-1 tornado touched down in Limestone County in the Belle Mina community at 3:33pm. We will continue to monitor for the chances of severe weather next week.

Next Week???

As I have been mentioning over the last couple days it is hard to predict winter weather. Now the latest few model runs show the Low well north and they are trending a little warmer with a possibility of strong to severe storms in here by Christmas Eve. They have been changing each run and they WILL change again just not sure in which direction. If they stay like they are now areas north of Tennessee and the NE states are in for a pounding.So basically the real cold air is slowing down and that is what we need for snow of course. But do not think that come Sunday the snow will not be back on the table. This is an El-Nino year and anything is possible.

More Rain for South Alabama

Well as feared more intense rain is coming for parts of South Alabama, areas hit hard with flooding during the last couple weeks. The 12Z run of the NAM is a little more aggressive with the rain coming in on over night Thursday and into Friday with 1.5" to 2" amounts possible with the 3"+ bulls eye near Atlanta on Saturday. The GFS holds it off until later on Friday with the amounts near 1" to 1.5". Looking at the long range models as well still shows the potential for a pre-Christmas storm. It is very hard to predict or for forecasters to even put it in their forecast runs this far out. Yes when you get within a 6-7 day window the confidence is a little better, but with Alabama weather expect the unexpected. You will have ample time to get the needed items if this does in fact become a problematic situation. As always check here or anywhere you can get up to the minute weather information for your area. The GFSLR shows the Low well up the East Coast on Christmas day.

Tuscaloosa EF-4 tornado 9 years ago today

Today marks the 9th anniversary of the EF-4 tornado that touched down at 12:54pm and left a path of destruction for 18 miles and 750 yards wide. 11 people died that day and 75 others were injured ages of the ones that were killed ranged from 18 months to 83 years old. This is a grim reminder that in Alabama our Tornado season is never really gone, we can see tornadoes here year round. Our thoughts and prayers are with the families of the ones who died that day, as they remember year after year. God watch over everyone today and everyday. Click the title for ABC3340 live coverage of that day.

Winter Storm a Coming???????

I titled it this way because I do not want to jinx any chance of the white stuff next week. All the major players are going to be in place for a major snow event for the Southeast next week just before Christmas. Depending on the track of the Low in the Gulf we could end up with nothing but rain, but it is looking more likely that the Low will track just far enough northward to give off a little snow around the 23rd or 24th with very cold air in place if any falls it may be on the ground for Christmas ( that would be so cool.) Looking back in time this looks to be the best chance of a good Christmas snow in 25-30 years or better( still looking for exact dates). This is not a forecast so do not go out and horde bread and water yet. Stay tuned should have a better handle on this over the weekend.

Ready and Now booking For 2010

Dixie Alley Adventures is the newest extreme tour group out there to provide people the opportunity to see mother nature first hand. With 11 years of chasing experience, I am ready to show others the adrenaline rush of storm chasing first hand both in Dixie Alley as well as Tornado Alley. Copy and paste the url or just click the above title for dates and details.

http://dixiealleyadventures.com/

Hail Criteria Changes For Severe Thunderstorms

We have known this Since earlier this year. Now on January 5, 2010 the NWS will make implement the change from 3/4" (penny size) to 1" (quarter size)For issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. While this may lessen the number of Thunderstorm warnings for hail size, the wind criteria stays the same. Although this should cut our Tstorm warnings in half 3/4" hail is still considered dangerous to property and should not be taken lightly. We are now on board with other NWS offices across the country. Here is the statement issued by the NWS.


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
900 AM CST THU DEC 10 2009

TO: SUBSCRIBERS: NWS PARTNERS...USERS AND EMPLOYEES

SUBJECT: NATIONAL CHANGE IN MINIMUM HAIL SIZE CRITERION
FOR ISSUING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM /SVR/ AND
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT /SVS/ PRODUCTS EFFECTIVE
JANUARY 5 2010

EFFECTIVE TUESDAY JANUARY 5 2010 AT 0001 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME
/UTC/...ALL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES
/WFO/ WILL OPERATIONALLY CHANGE THE MINIMUM HAIL SIZE CRITERION USED
TO ISSUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING /SVR/ AND SEVERE WEATHER
STATEMENT /SVS/ PRODUCTS FROM 3/4 INCH /PENNY/ DIAMETER OR LARGER TO
1 INCH /QUARTER/ DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

NO CHANGE IS BEING MADE TO THE SVR AND SVS PRODUCT WIND CRITERION OF
WIND GUSTS EQUAL TO OR IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS /58 MPH/.

A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT /PNS/ SOLICITING COMMENTS REGARDING
THIS CHANGE WAS ISSUED SEPTEMBER 23 2009 /PLEASE USE LOWERCASE/:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OS/NOTIFICATION/PNS09_1_INCH_HAIL.TXT

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ RECEIVED 63 COMMENTS IN RESPONSE
TO THE PNS...54 /86 PERCENT/ OF WHICH SUPPORTED THIS CHANGE. A WEB
PAGE WILL BE CREATED TO ADDRESS ALL COMMENTS SINCE SOME COMMENTS
INDICATED A NEED FOR ADDITIONAL OUTREACH. THIS WEB PAGE WILL BE
AVAILABLE BY DECEMBER 15 2009 AND WILL BE PUBLICIZED VIA ANOTHER
PNS.

THE NWS RECEIVED ALL COMMENTS BEFORE DECIDING TO CHANGE MINIMUM HAIL
SIZE CRITERION FOR SVR AND SVS PRODUCTS.

CENTRAL AND WESTERN REGION WFO/S CURRENTLY ISSUE SVR AND SVS
PRODUCTS EXPERIMENTALLY USING THE 1 INCH /QUARTER/ DIAMETER OR
LARGER HAIL SIZE CRITERION /PLEASE USE LOWERCASE/:

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/SCN09-19HAIL_CHANGE.TXT

AND

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/SCN09-36WR_HAIL_EXP.TXT

THESE WFO/S WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE 1 INCH /QUARTER/ HAIL SIZE
CRITERION PRODUCTS EXPERIMENTALLY THROUGH JANUARY 4 2010. ALL NWS
WFO/S WILL ADOPT THE NEW CRITERION OPERATIONALLY ON JANUARY 5 2010.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING THIS CHANGE PLEASE CONTACT:

JOHN T FERREE
FIRE AND PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES BRANCH
120 DAVID L. BOREN BLVD SUITE 2312
NORMAN OK 73072
405-325-2209
JOHN.T.FERREE@NOAA.GOV

OR

DAVID NADLER
WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
320 SPARKMAN DRIVE
HUNTSVILLE AL 35805
256-890-8503
DAVID.NADLER@NOAA.GOV

NATIONAL SERVICE CHANGE NOTICES ARE ONLINE AT /PLEASE USE LOWERCASE/:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OS/NOTIF.HTM

Enjoy the Break

Well after a night of severe storms to the south and major flooding in North Alabama we will get a much needed break but it will be short lived. The HPC has outlined most of North Alabama for another 2.4" by Monday with the system that is to be here this weekend. Huntsville has an average rainfall total of 5.59" for the month of December and received 3.82" in the Tuesday storm and a yearly average of 57.51" and already have received 64.25" and we are not done yet. We are calling for a cold rain on Friday night right now but we could see 32F sometime Friday Night. It will be to cold to snow but freezing rain and ice is a possibility But we will not forecast that right now we can fine tune that by Thursday Night. Stay tuned.

Tuesday Night Flooding Rains In The Valley

Here are a few preliminary reports from the flooding and severe weather last night. I recorded just over 4" of rain here in Madison.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
158 AM CST WED DEC 09 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 PM FLASH FLOOD 9 ESE LITTLEVILLE 34.56N 87.53W
12/08/2009 FRANKLIN AL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER WAS REPORTED OVER COUNTY LINE ROAD.

0830 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 E HARTSELLE 34.45N 86.87W
12/08/2009 MORGAN AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

MT TABOR ROAD WAS FLOODED NEAR THE AL HWY 36
INTERSECTION.

0929 PM FLASH FLOOD MADISON 34.70N 86.75W
12/08/2009 MADISON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

GREENWAY AND PARKING LOT FLOODED ALONG INDIAN CREEK AT
OLD MADISON PIKE. WATER IS 3 FEET BELOW BRIDGE AT THIS
TIME.

0935 PM FLOOD 6 WNW HUNTSVILLE 34.77N 86.68W
12/08/2009 MADISON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER WAS REPORTED OVER PLUMMER RD JUST WEST OF JOHNS RD.


0935 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 S NEW MARKET 34.84N 86.41W
12/08/2009 MADISON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER WAS REPORTED OVER THE ROAD AT THE INTERSECTION OF
COUNTY LAKE RD AND HURRICANE CREEK RD.

0935 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 N OWENS CROSSROADS 34.64N 86.45W
12/08/2009 MADISON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER WAS REPORTED OVER OLD HWY 431 NEAR THE BERKLEY
COMMUNITY

0939 PM FLASH FLOOD HARTSELLE 34.44N 86.94W
12/08/2009 MORGAN AL TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL ROADS ARE FLOODED IN THE HARTSELLE AREA...AND
SOME ARE BEING CLOSED.

0940 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SSW ELKMONT 34.90N 87.00W
12/08/2009 LIMESTONE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING WAS REPORTED ON WITTY MILL RD NEAR ELKMONT.

0940 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 ENE MT ROZELL 34.94N 87.11W
12/08/2009 LIMESTONE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER WAS REPORTED OVER EASTER FERRY RD NEAR AL HWY 99
NEAR THE SALEM COMMUNITY.

0943 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 N SPEAKE 34.47N 87.16W
12/08/2009 LAWRENCE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER WAS REPORTED OVER THE ROAD AT CR 87 AND CR 72 IN
FIVE POINTS

0943 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 E CHALYBEATE SPRINGS 34.56N 87.19W
12/08/2009 LAWRENCE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER WAS REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF CR 214 AND CR 301 IN
THE EAST LAWRENCE/CHALYBEATE SPRINGS AREA

0947 PM FLASH FLOOD NE HARTSELLE 34.44N 86.93W
12/08/2009 MORGAN AL TRAINED SPOTTER

UP TO TWO FEET OF WATER WAS REPORTED OVER CHESTNUT ST IN
HARTSELLE.

0950 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 SSE DECATUR 34.56N 86.96W
12/08/2009 MORGAN AL EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS ROADS ARE FLOODED IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CITY OF DECATUR. COUNTRY CLUB RD IS CURRENTLY BEING
CLOSED.

1020 PM FLASH FLOOD ARDMORE 34.99N 86.85W
12/08/2009 LIMESTONE AL BROADCAST MEDIA

WATER WAS REPORTED OVER MAIN STREET IN DOWNTOWN ARDMORE.

1027 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 WNW HUNTSVILLE 34.74N 86.61W
12/08/2009 MADISON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

TWO TO THREE FEET OF WATER WERE REPORTED IN A HOUSING
AREA ALONG BROGLAN BRANCH. HIGH WATER WAS REPORTED OVER
TIMBERLANE AVE AND POPLAR AVE

1030 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSE GURLEY 34.67N 86.37W
12/08/2009 MADISON AL BROADCAST MEDIA

A TREE WAS DOWNED ALONG KEEL MOUNTAIN RD. TIME ESTIMATED.


1040 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SSW HADEN 34.66N 86.52W
12/08/2009 MADISON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING IS CAUSING ROCK AND MUD SLIDES ON CECIL
ASHBURN DR IN SOUTHEAST HUNTSVILLE

1055 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 WSW SECTION 34.56N 86.05W
12/08/2009 JACKSON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL TREES WERE DOWNED ALONG CR 67 NEAR LANGSTON

1057 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 W FARLEY 34.60N 86.57W
12/08/2009 MADISON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER WAS ENTERING A RESIDENCE ALONG HURSTLAND DR NEAR
GREEN COVE RD AND MEMORIAL PKWY

1057 PM FLASH FLOOD HARTSELLE 34.44N 86.94W
12/08/2009 MORGAN AL EMERGENCY MNGR

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS REPORTED AROUND THE CITY OF
HARTSELLE. MOST DOWNTOWN ROADS ARE CLOSED OR UNDER
SEVERAL FEET OF WATER. WATER IS CLOSE TO ENTERING SOME
HOMES AND BUSINESSES. PORTIONS OF US 31 ARE CLOSED OR
UNDER WATER.

1100 PM TSTM WND DMG SCOTTSBORO 34.67N 86.03W
12/08/2009 JACKSON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN AROUND THE CITY OF
SCOTTSBORO

1105 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 WNW OWENS CROSSROADS 34.60N 86.54W
12/08/2009 MADISON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOOD WATERS SURROUNDED AN OCCUPIED VEHICLE ON BAILEY
COVE RD IN SOUTHEAST HUNTSVILLE.

1105 PM FLOOD 3 ENE MADISON 34.71N 86.71W
12/08/2009 MADISON AL TRAINED SPOTTER

FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG INDIAN CREEK. FIELDS ALONG
FARROW RD ARE UNDER WATER...AS IS THE PARKING LOT AT
CREEKWOOD PARK. ALSO...FLOOD WATERS SURROUNDED A HOUSE
NEAR SLAUGHTER RD

1105 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 NE HUNTSVILLE 34.77N 86.54W
12/08/2009 MADISON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

A RESIDENCE IS SURROUNDED BY FLOOD WATERS NEAR US HWY 72
JUST EAST OF CHAPMAN MOUNTAIN

1110 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 WSW GURLEY 34.68N 86.45W
12/08/2009 MADISON AL PUBLIC

A PERSON WAS TRAPPED IN A VEHICLE BY FLOOD WATERS ON
QUARTER LN IN THE HAMPTON COVE AREA

1115 PM TSTM WND DMG SKYLINE 34.81N 86.12W
12/08/2009 JACKSON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE REPORTED DOWN ON ALABAMA HIGHWAY 79 IN THE SKYLINE
AREA.

1125 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 SW HADEN 34.65N 86.54W
12/08/2009 MADISON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING WAS REPORTED ALONG ALDRIDGE CREEK ON LILY FLAGG
RD AND MOUNTAIN GAP RD IN SOUTHEAST HUNTSVILLE

1125 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 SSE HUNTSVILLE 34.66N 86.56W
12/08/2009 MADISON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOOD WATERS WERE ENTERING THE BASEMENT OF A RESIDENCE
ALONG HICKORY HILL LN IN SOUTHEAST HUNTSVILLE

1130 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 SSE MOORES MILL 34.79N 86.49W
12/08/2009 MADISON AL PUBLIC

WATER WAS REPORTED OVER HOMER NANCE RD NEAR JORDAN RD IN
NORTHEAST HUNTSVILLE

1135 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 ESE HARTSELLE 34.43N 86.90W
12/08/2009 MORGAN AL EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL HOUSES ALONG E PARKER RD WERE BEING EVACUATED DUE
TO FLOODING

1139 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NW HARTSELLE 34.46N 86.95W
12/08/2009 MORGAN AL BROADCAST MEDIA

1 TO 1.5 FEET OF WATER WAS REPORTEDLY COVERING THE FRONT
LOBBY AND CHECKOUT AREA OF THE HARTSELLE WALMART.

1140 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 NW GURLEY 34.75N 86.43W
12/08/2009 MADISON AL PUBLIC

BROCK RD WAS FLOODED NEAR BROWNSBORO RD AND WALL RD IN
THE BROWNSBORO AREA

1145 PM TSTM WND DMG CROSSVILLE 34.29N 85.99W
12/08/2009 DEKALB AL PUBLIC

POWER LINES WERE DOWNED IN THE CROSSVILLE...KILPATRICK
AREA.

1155 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 ESE GURLEY 34.69N 86.35W
12/08/2009 JACKSON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER WAS REPORTED OVER BOTH LANES OF US HWY 72 NEAR THE
JACKSON/MADISON COUNTY BORDER.

1155 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NE WOODVILLE 34.64N 86.26W
12/08/2009 JACKSON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER WAS REPORTED OVER CR 183

1155 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 N WOODVILLE 34.68N 86.26W
12/08/2009 JACKSON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER WAS REPORTED OVER THE ROAD AT THE INTERSECTION OF
CR 8 AND CR 215

1204 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 ESE HUNTSVILLE 34.71N 86.51W
12/09/2009 MADISON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

DOUG HILL RD WAS REPORTED TO BE UNDER WATER

1208 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 SW HADEN 34.65N 86.54W
12/09/2009 MADISON AL PUBLIC

ALDRIDGE CREEK WAS AT BANKFULL AND ABOUT ONE FOOT BELOW
THE WEATHERLY RD BRIDGE IN SOUTHEAST HUNTSVILLE

1215 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 S FYFFE 34.40N 85.89W
12/09/2009 DEKALB AL EMERGENCY MNGR

A ROOF WAS BLOWN ONTO CR 52 IN THE GILBERT CROSSROADS
COMMUNITY

1220 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 W FORT PAYNE 34.45N 85.77W
12/09/2009 DEKALB AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF A CARPORT ALONG CR 97

1220 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 WNW FORT PAYNE 34.46N 85.79W
12/09/2009 DEKALB AL BROADCAST MEDIA

STOP SIGNS WERE BLOWN OVER AT OLD HWY 35 AND CR 44

1220 AM FLASH FLOOD PAINT ROCK 34.66N 86.33W
12/09/2009 JACKSON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

BOTH EAST AND WEST BOUND LANES OF US HWY 72 ARE UNDER
AROUND 8 INCHES OF WATER NEAR MILE MARKER 115

1225 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 SW FORT PAYNE 34.43N 85.73W
12/09/2009 DEKALB AL EMERGENCY MNGR

A ROOF WAS PARTIALLY BLOWN OFF A BUSINESS AT THE
INTERSECTION OF US HWY 11 AND AL HWY 35

1230 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 NNE HUNTSVILLE 34.79N 86.54W
12/09/2009 MADISON AL TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER WAS REPORTED OVER MOORES MILL RD SOUTH OF
WINCHESTER RD

1235 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 WNW OWENS CROSSROADS 34.61N 86.54W
12/09/2009 MADISON AL PUBLIC

UP TO 4 FEET OF WATER WAS REPORTED OVER HOBBS RD IN SOUTH
HUNTSVILLE. ALDRIDGE CREEK WAS TWO FEET BELOW THE HOBBS
RD BRIDGE.

1250 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 WNW FORT PAYNE 34.46N 85.79W
12/09/2009 DEKALB AL BROADCAST MEDIA

WATER WAS REPORTED OVER OLD AL HWY 35

0100 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 SSW SOMERVILLE 34.43N 86.82W
12/09/2009 MORGAN AL EMERGENCY MNGR

A MAN WAS SWEPT FROM HIS VEHICLE BY FLOOD WATERS ON GUM
SPRINGS RD AND HAD TO BE RESCUED.

0100 AM TSTM WND DMG GUNTERSVILLE 34.36N 86.29W
12/09/2009 MARSHALL AL EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS
MARSHALL COUNTY

0100 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 S SOMERVILLE 34.46N 86.80W
12/09/2009 MORGAN AL EMERGENCY MNGR

A CAR WAS SWEPT OFF THE ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF CUT
OFF RD AND OLD SIX MILE RD. SUBSEQUENTLY...A RESCUE SQUAD
BOAT WRECKED AND THE WOULD BE RESCUERS WERE TRAPPED IN A
TREE.

0110 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 S WEST POINT 34.23N 86.96W
12/09/2009 CULLMAN AL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER WAS REPORTED OVER A BRIDGE ON CR 1140

0110 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 SSW GOOD HOPE 34.05N 86.91W
12/09/2009 CULLMAN AL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER WAS REPORTED OVER A BRIDGE ON CR 223

0110 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 WSW HANCEVILLE 34.06N 86.81W
12/09/2009 CULLMAN AL EMERGENCY MNGR

A BRIDGE WAS UNDER WATER ALONG CR 565

New Tornado Watch for Portions Of Mississippi

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 796
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA TO 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF GREENWOOD
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION…APPROACH OF POWERFUL UPPER JET AND S/WV TROUGH
RESULTING IN RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS LOWER MS
VALLEY AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE TO THE NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY EWD ACROSS WATCH AREA.
WITH STRONG…VEERING DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND MLCAPES IN WARM
SECTOR TO 1000 J/KG…SUPERCELLS INCLUDING TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
RAMP UP REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING.

AVIATION…TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.

This whole area will affect Alabama later tonight.

Severe Potential Tonight

The severe weather threat will start in Mississippi sometime this afternoon, and it looks as if our greatest severe weather risk will begin between 6:00 p.m. until 2:00 a.m. The surface based CAPE values look to be near 500 j/kg around west Alabama, and the shear parameters are really high which is typical with these cold weather events. If sustained updrafts can get going, then there is no doubt a few tornadoes will be possible. Now just because it looks as if the stronger storms could be over west Alabama, no one needs to let their guard down. This is shaping up to be a nocturnal event so everyone needs to be ready all over the state.

Interesting Weather Ahead

Here is the latest Hazardous Weather Outlook from the NWS:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
450 AM CST MON DEC 7 2009

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-071900-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
450 AM CST MON DEC 7 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
IN ADDITION...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
DELIVER SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...LOOK FOR WINDS
GUSTING TO 35 MPH ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW MIX TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

With that said everyone needs to be aware on Tuesday and into Tuesday night. This set up is shaping up to be almost like the night when the 2 EF-4 tornadoes hit here in the Tennessee Valley back in February 08. Now I am not saying we are going to have MONSTER TORNADOES all I am saying is it is going to be possible for tornadoes. Will there be any we just do not know. Right now the instability is the key, as of now there is no evidence of extreme CAPE, but there will be high HELICITY values so we will have to wait and see. Now I am not going to elaborate on the end of the week set up just yet I will say that it is looking complicated, right now we will just say moisture will return by Friday. I will post more on this developing severe weather chances this afternoon.

Nighttime Public Weather Outlooks to be Issued by The Storm Prediction Center

I thought I would post this info from the NWS office since we are looking at possible severe storms including tornadoes on Tuesday night.

Cool-season nighttime tornadoes pose a particular challenge to forecasters, and are also a substantial threat to the public. In the wake of the Super Tuesday Outbreak of February 2008, it was found that many people did not expect tornadoes, especially in February, and especially at night. Late night tornado events also pose a significant challenge to public safety officials when alerting the public to the impending threat can be extremely difficult after people have gone to bed. While it is recognized that the bulk of these events will remain difficult to forecast and highly uncertain, the SPC is in the best position to offer guidance and meteorological support ahead of these "high impact, low probability" events. To that end, this is a initial attempt to improve our commitment to saving lives and protecting property.

Beginning December 1, 2009 and lasting through March 31, 2010, the Storm Prediction Center will issue Public Severe Weather Outlooks (PWO) following the issuance of a 2000 UTC and/or 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook (SWODY1) when a 10 percent probability of significant tornadoes (hatched area) is forecast after dark anywhere in the CONUS. These PWOs will be specifically worded to address the threat of nighttime tornadoes and issued even if an earlier PWO was issued for significant severe weather during daylight hours.

Here is an example of what this product would look like:

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0600 PM CST WED JAN 06 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF XXXX OVERNIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF XXXX OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG AND
POSSIBLY LONG-LIVED TORNADOES.

WHILE OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO AFTER DARK
WARRANTS HEIGHTENED SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.

TORNADOES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN BE
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS BECAUSE THEY ARE USUALLY FAST-MOVING
AND OBSCURED BY RAIN AND DARKNESS.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

XXXX AND XXXX

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS
TONIGHT.

Severe Potential on Tuesday

Well here we go. The SPC has painted almost all of Alabama in a slight risk area for Tuesday. This is a developing system while right now it looks as is the main threat will be strong winds and possibly some hail as well as heavy rain the HPC has a 2.06" bulls-eye right over the Tennessee valley but, we cannot rule out a tornado. After all this is our secondary tornado season. Make sure you tune in to local news for the latest on this threat tomorrow so you can plan your Tuesday.I will be in the field on Tuesday and will be streaming live as I chase across the state.

BEAUTIFUL

Well as everyone wakes this morning and opens the blinds to let the morning sun shine in the room they will be greeted with a beautiful scene. Old man Winter lay a blanket over much of the state last night and early this morning. I measured 0.03" of powder in my yard. Although this is not a major snow by any means, but to all the little children that has never seen snow it is a wonderland to them. Not really wet enough to have a snowball fight it is still makes for beautiful scene.Temperatures right now as I type are 29.1° with a wind chill of 23.2° here in Madison. Remember this is an El' Nino year and we are getting one gulf low after another to blow in here. You can look for many more chances of snow and possibly ice before the end of February, this very well could be the year for a real good snowstorm. With this out of the way we turn our focus onto next week as another storm system heads our way, but this one looks to be a rain maker.

Snow Update

Well as you can see the bands of light to moderate snow has started across the state. The top image is from about an hour ago as a heavy band was stretched from Cullman to Jackson county, the other image was from 11:00 and the darker blue is the snow that should be hitting the ground. More moisture is developing west of I-65 and pushing ENE. Light accumulations are possible but no major problems are forecast. Enjoy what you see because it will be gone by noon on Saturday.

Winter Storm for Alabama on Saturday??? part2

With the latest Models in the NAM is showing light snow just about anywhere but some others are not in agreement. This is Alabama and Winter weather here is so very unpredictable.Will we see anything in the state? I have to say yes but where and how much is really not known yet.Best case scenario I can see is from Birmingham to Montgomery could see snow accumulation with areas to the north just seeing flurries if that. Areas to the south perhaps just a cold rain with maybe some sleet. The models tomorrow should be more in tune with what is going to happen. Like I said in an earlier post the gulf is wide open and we will see more chances this winter(2 or more per month)so if we do not get any or much this time, it will happen before the season is up.(Maybe more than one event with measurable precip this season). Stay tuned.

Winter Storm for Alabama on Saturday???

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
450 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-032200-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…HAMILTON…SULLIGENT…VERNON…
FAYETTE…DOUBLE SPRINGS…JASPER…ONEONTA…GADSDEN…
ANNISTON…CENTRE…HEFLIN…CARROLLTON…TUSCALOOSA…
BIRMINGHAM…HOOVER…COLUMBIANA…PELHAM…ALABASTER…
PELL CITY…MOODY…TALLADEGA…SYLACAUGA…ASHLAND…ROANOKE…
LIVINGSTON…EUTAW…GREENSBORO…MOUNDVILLE…MARION…
CENTREVILLE…CLANTON…ROCKFORD…ALEXANDER CITY…DADEVILLE…
VALLEY…LANETT…LAFAYETTE…DEMOPOLIS…LINDEN…SELMA…
PRATTVILLE…FORT DEPOSIT…HAYNEVILLE…WETUMPKA…TALLASSEE…
MONTGOMERY…TUSKEGEE…UNION SPRINGS…AUBURN…OPELIKA…
PHENIX CITY…TROY…EUFAULA
450 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

…WINTER STORM EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY…

A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATE FRIDAY THAT WILL LIKELY BRING MEASURABLE SNOW TO PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME…AMOUNTS
OF UP TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20…59 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85…WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER TOTALS
IN ELEVATED AREAS IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20…59 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE HALF INCH.
ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED…WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY WITH THIS EVENT DUE TO THE WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER FORECAST UPDATES. It is something we continue to watch as it develops. Notice the model runs as the NAM does show some potential for an inch or more across Central Alabama and not much for North Alabama,but that could change with any given run. Also notice the HPC is showing 4" for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas on Friday and then on Saturday all the precip moves up into the Mountains of west Tennessee. No big deal for us here but long range data hints this by far will not be our only threat for snow or even ice this winter. Looks like at least 2 or more chance each month as Low after Low develops in the Gulf. Just Don't get your hope up yet.

Storms Firing in Southeast

Well the SPC has outlined parts of south Alabama,Georgia, and the Florida panhandle in a tornado watch until later this afternoon. Already there has been one tornado reported near Elgin, Florida.( As you can see the higher CAPE is still off shore) As I type this there is a tornado warning for Holmes, Bay, and Franklin Counties in Florida and for Geneva County in Alabama. As soon as all this weather is out of the area we can focus on the possibility of wintry precip in the SE this weekend. Latest models show a snow/rain line near Montgomery by 6pm on Saturday. If this is right Anywhere in north and central Alabama could ) notice I said could) see about 1", but it is still 3 days away. It is hard to really predict how much if any winter precip is possible more than 48 hours out. Stay tuned.

Watching the Models Closely

Please do not rush out and horde bread and milk just yet. The 06Z GFS hints at accumulating snow for North-Central Alabama( but it is not set in stone yet all models are different) the moisture will be limited, but it bares watching.The GFS is showing a strong Vort Max rotating through the base of a trough in the Central US which spins up a low in the Gulf. It will just have to be watched closely, we should know a little more after all the rain moves out tomorrow evening as the low pulls away