Saturday, October 23, 2010

Severe Chances going Up!!!

Well as the small tornado outbreak has unfolded in North Texas we are watching the possible development of strong to severe storms here across Alabama. all models are looking more and more like we will see significant storms late Sunday night into Monday morning. Will this be a tornado outbreak like we have seen today? It is uncertain right now just what to expect. Please make sure you have your weather radio where you can hear it in case of inclement weather as it will be after everyone has gone to bed. As you can see from the models below if they hold true it will be a long late night watching and waiting. Here is the latest from the NWS.
A SECOND PEAK IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT...AND POTENTIALLY GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...IS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE MID SOUTH. WARMING DEW POINTS AMIDST INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRH CONTINUES TO BOOST CONCERNS FOR TORNADOES AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.SUFFICIENT CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR ABOVE THE INVERSION TO SUPPORT
ROTATING CELLS. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
MARGINAL...AND STILL BETTER TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AS WELL. THIS WILL BE MONITORED AS FUTURE FCST TRENDS CLOSELY TO TRY TO
PIN DOWN SEVERE WEATHER SPECIFICS AND CONVECTIVE MODE


Day 2 convective outlook

Significant Severe for 3am Monday

SRH 6am Monday

Significant Tornado Parameter 3am Monday

NOGAPS 6am Monday

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