Severe Chances going Up!!!

Well after a little warm up over the last couple days we are going to see some cold temps once again as a strong cold front will move through the State on Tuesday. Ahead of the front we will see the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms beginning after midnight on Monday and continuing into the day on Tuesday. While as of right now it looks as if the better Parameters for severe storms are to the south of the Tennessee River we could still see a warning or two across North Alabama as well. The development of the warm sector and the deep layer moisture will need to be watched to see how this system plays out and just how far north the warmth can expand. The upper trough is certainly strong, so the development of severe weather will depend on how other parameters come together. The SPC right now has a slight risk area to our Southwest that covers all of Louisiana and much of Central and Southern Mississippi as well as a small portion of Southwest Alabama. This is our secondary tornado season so stay weather aware over the next couple days.
From NWS in Huntsville
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
NORTHEAST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
Spotter activation is not expected at this time for the NWS Huntsville forecast area

From NWS in Birmingham
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES...ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BECAUSE OF THE SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY...AND UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...THERE IS STILL A LOW DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.
Spotter activation may be needed for the BMX NWS forecast area on Tuesday


1pm Tuesday 3km Helicity

ML CAPE 7am Tuesday

10 Am Tuesday STP

10 am Tuesday Supercell Composite

10am Tuesday Significant Severe Index

1pm Tuesday Front Forecast Location