Models Starting To be More Consistant.

Well here we go. Let me say this first and foremost THIS IS NOT A FORECAST YET just a discussion and model outputs. Now the GFS and NAM are starting to get on board with the thought of snow on Christmas Day. While they are not as robust with the moisture the NAM is more impressive than the GFS. Both models have the 540 line just about the state line with Tennessee. We still note the GEM and the ECMWF are still very potent with the location of the 540 line dissecting the state and moisture and if they pan out a white Christmas is possible. We do also notice that both the GEM and the ECMWF are slower and a little drier than past runs so we are watching this fine line very closely. (Click the title to see the Tennessee Valley White Christmas records.) Now we are not expecting this type of snowfall this year, but 1-4" is very possible on average. Once again THIS IS NOT A FORECAST please wait until Thursday or Friday for a more accurate forecast on this event as well as any accumulation maps if I feel like it will be worth it. Now on to January 2nd, notice the forecast output at the bottom of the page. That system has the look of a major tornado and severe weather outbreak, but it is way out there and may change so stay tuned and let us get through Christmas first.







GFS PRECIPITATION TYPE

ECMWF (EUROPEAN)

GFS 12z VORTMAX

NAM 500mb VORTMAX

12z GEM (CANADIAN)

12z GFS SATURDAY

12z NAM SATURDAY

12z NoGaps

SUNDAY JANUARY 2nd