HMMMMMMMM

As some meteorologists have been discussing(not forecasting) there is a major player on the table and has been for the last few days. It looks as if a Major Winter Storm could be in the works (this is not in stone, just a discussion) in about 9 days from now. By looking at the long range GFS it shows the Rain snow line just South of Birmingham with the Low coming a shore near Apalachicola Florida. As Dan Satterfield from Whnt TV mentioned it has the look of the great Blizzard of March 1993. Will we see it here? It is way and I mean way to early to tell. SO we will leave it up for discussion. Do you remember the 1993 Blizzard? If so I would love to talk to you. Stay tuned and remember to start following my posts on alabamastormtrackers.com

Just to let all know.

As the newest member of Severe Studios and the Alabama Storm Trackers most all my posts will start going there. I will keep my blog open especially during severe weather. Stay tuned and look for my post on alabamastormtrackers.com

Tornado Season Reminder

While we can have tornadoes at any time of the year in Alabama, our official tornado season begins March 1st. Many people do not see it that way due to the fact as it can still be very cold. Below Is a reminder of this fact on March 1 2007 a tornado hit Enterprise Alabama killing 8 students in the local High School. Most of the state was under a High risk for severe weather this day. Please Be aware of changing weather conditions at all times.

Don't Look Now

Cullman Sky Cam at 3:40 pm

A new snowstorm in the air after what is going to be a beautiful weekend and temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Well here we go again. This is not a forecast just a simple look at our weather 7 days from now. If you will notice the chance for another southern snowstorm is on the table.It has been on here for the last few days just in different locations. As it stands right now we may be in for a major snow here in North Alabama but it is all speculation at this time. We will be adjusting this over the next few days.

BEAUTIFUL SUNSET

What a beautiful sunset today in Gulf Shores. After the last few weeks of cold, cloudy, and miserable conditions this was a welcome sight.

Just To Let You Know.

Most all of you know I have been storm chasing since right after the April 8 1998 F5 tornado that hit the Birmingham Metro area. I have always been interested in weather and after seeing the type of destruction a storm like that could cause I knew then I wanted to be a storm chaser. So I have been chasing since that time I have seen a few tornadoes here in Alabama and in Mississippi. Last season it happened a tornado hit the town in which I live Madison Alabama and I was chasing the cell at the time and the tornado (rated EF-2) hit less than 1/2 mile from my home. I have never streamed video of storms until here recently, and since that day I have become a Skywarn Spotter for the NWS for the purpose of helping them with storm reports and confirmation of storms and damage of any kind with the hopes of saving lives. Now another great day in my chasing life and career. I have been voted in as an Associate Chaser with a company based in Madison South Dakota called Severe Studios and also I am the newest member of the Alabama Storm Trackers that is headed up by Brett Adair (also an associate chaser with Severe Studios). I look forward to working closely with Brett and the rest of the SS team. With the Winter being as harsh as it has been we could be in for a very active and early Tornado season. There were 71 tornadoes state wide in 2009, and 2010 could be worse. Thank you Severestudios.com for this opportunity.

Slight Warming Trend Ahead

Cheaha

Huntsville

With the last few days with highs in the low 40s and into the upper 30s we should start a slow warm up by the weekend. Now by saying WARM UP that does not mean shorts and t shirts, but we should reach mid 50s which will seem like a major warm up compared to what we are used to the last few weeks. above are a couple skycam shots of both Huntsville and Mount Cheaha taken this morning at 8:30. Like I said in an earlier post I am ready for the big thaw and some storms.

Accumulation Totals From the 2-15-2010 Snow

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
556 AM CST MON FEB 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 AM SNOW IDER 34.70N 85.67W
02/15/2010 M2.0 INCH DEKALB AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

2 INCHES OF SNOW IN IDER.

0238 AM SNOW TUSCUMBIA 34.73N 87.71W
02/15/2010 M1.5 INCH COLBERT AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

1.5 INCHES OF SNOW IN TUSCUMBIA.

0255 AM SNOW RUSSELLVILLE 34.51N 87.73W
02/15/2010 M1.5 INCH FRANKLIN AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

1.5 INCHES OF SNOW IN RUSSELLVILLE.

0257 AM SNOW 10 NW CULLMAN 34.28N 86.96W
02/15/2010 M0.8 INCH CULLMAN AL EMERGENCY MNGR

0.8 INCHES OF SNOW IN JONES CHAPEL.

0300 AM SNOW HARTSELLE 34.44N 86.94W
02/15/2010 E0.8 INCH MORGAN AL PUBLIC

0.8 INCHES OF SNOW IN HARTSELLE.

0300 AM SNOW 5 E ARDMORE 34.98N 86.75W
02/15/2010 M1.5 INCH MADISON AL PUBLIC

1.5 INCHES OF SNOW NEAR AL AND TN STATE LINE.

0300 AM SNOW ATHENS 34.79N 86.96W
02/15/2010 M1.0 INCH LIMESTONE AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

1 INCH OF SNOW IN ATHENS.

0315 AM SNOW FAYETTEVILLE 35.15N 86.56W
02/15/2010 E1.0 INCH LINCOLN TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

1 INCH OF SNOW IN FAYETTEVILLE.

0315 AM SNOW ARDMORE 34.98N 86.84W
02/15/2010 E1.5 INCH LIMESTONE AL PUBLIC

1.5 INCHES OF SNOW NEAR ARDMORE.

0315 AM SNOW HARVEST 34.86N 86.75W
02/15/2010 M1.0 INCH MADISON AL NWS EMPLOYEE

1.0 INCH OF SNOW IN HARVEST.

0325 AM SNOW ATHENS 34.79N 86.96W
02/15/2010 M2.0 INCH LIMESTONE AL PUBLIC

2 INCHES OF SNOW IN ATHENS.

0330 AM SNOW WINCHESTER 35.19N 86.11W
02/15/2010 M1.0 INCH FRANKLIN TN CO-OP OBSERVER

1.0 INCHES OF SNOW IN WINCHESTER.

0330 AM SNOW SEWANEE 35.20N 85.92W
02/15/2010 M4.0 INCH FRANKLIN TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

4 INCHES OF SNOW IN SEWANEE.

0330 AM SNOW LYNCHBURG 35.28N 86.36W
02/15/2010 E1.0 INCH MOORE TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

1 INCH OF SNOW IN LYNCHBURG.

0332 AM SNOW 3 NE MADISON 34.73N 86.71W
02/15/2010 M0.5 INCH MADISON AL TRAINED SPOTTER

0.5 INCHES OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES IN MADISON.

0341 AM SNOW 8 ENE FALKVILLE 34.42N 86.78W
02/15/2010 E1.0 INCH MORGAN AL BROADCAST MEDIA

1 INCH OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES NEAR LACEY SPRINGS.

0345 AM SNOW MADISON 34.70N 86.75W
02/15/2010 M1.0 INCH MADISON AL TRAINED SPOTTER

1.0 INCH OF SNOW IN MADISON.

0351 AM SNOW HUNTSVILLE 34.71N 86.63W
02/15/2010 M0.5 INCH MADISON AL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0.5 INCHES OF SNOW AT HUNTSVILLE WFO.

0500 AM SNOW SCOTTSBORO 34.65N 86.05W
02/15/2010 M1.0 INCH JACKSON AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

1.0 INCH OF SNOW IN SCOTTSBORO.

0515 AM SNOW SEWANEE 35.20N 85.92W
02/15/2010 E5.0 INCH FRANKLIN TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

5 INCHES OF SNOW IN SEWANNE.


&&

Learning Curve.

I will chalk this bust in my forecast up as a learning curve. They always say do not expect much snow here out of a Clipper system. It looked so good on radar just a few hours before the initial snowfall but it was for naught here. I received 1" of snow at my home in Madison and we had a variety of amounts across the North Alabama area from 4" in Swanee in Franklin Tennessee to 0.05" in the Shoals area. We are still under a winter weather advisory until 8pm tonight. for an upper air disturbance that could bring more snow later this afternoon and evening. It is near the Memphis area at this time (11:41am). I am so ready for tornado season. Here is the latest HWO from NWS Huntsville

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1143 AM CST MON FEB 15 2010

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-161100-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1143 AM CST MON FEB 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE SNOW MAY BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON THE PLATEAU.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ICY PATCHES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON AREA ROADWAYS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING DUE TO RECENT SNOWFALL AND SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. SOME
MELTING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON PRIMARY ROADS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SECONDARY ROADS AND SOME BRIDGES MAY
REMAIN ICY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

Here It Comes.

The leading edge of all the moisture that will be our WINTER STORM is pushing through Memphis at this time. There will be a 3-4 hour window of all snow and it will be very heavy at times (around 2" per hour). While the main line will exit the area by 9:00am on Monday there will still be the chance for snow showers all day into the evening. I will be streaming over night starting around midnight or when I see the first flakes fall. You can access the stream from the Chase Cam link on the right side of the home page. The roads will be dangerous as this system starts its onslaught with temps dropping into the 20s tonight and not getting above the freezing mark on Monday.We could also hear THUNDER snow with this system. There has already been reports of thunder and lightning in Mississippi tonight.

Winter Storm Warning North Alabama

The NWS in Huntsville has now placed all of its Counties under a Winter Storm Warning from 9:00pm Sunday until 12:00pm on Monday. The Counties in light blue are under a winter weather advisory for the same time frame.

There could be some locally heavier amounts reported with the heavier bands as it moves through. More to come later today and tonight.

A quick burst of snow this morning ahead of a warm front. We can expect much more overnight tonight with 2-4 inches possible by the time it is over tomorrow. Snowfall rates of 2inches per hour are possible in the heavier bands after midnight.

Ok Here We Go

Awaken this morning with heavy snowfall and temps right at freezing. While this should all turn to rain later this morning and into the afternoon it will turn back to all snow overnight and into Monday morning. The NWS office in Huntsville has issued a Winter Storm Warning for its counties in North Alabama for late tonight and Monday morning.The map below is painting 1-2 inches in parts of the Valley and 2-4 in NE Alabama. Stay tuned.

Clipper Coming.

NAM notice it is much drier than the GFS

GFS looks wet.

The GFS is calling for close to 1/2 inch of precip for the day but some of that will be rain during the day.


Well as I mentioned earlier we have a Alberta Clipper about to make an impact in the Tennessee Valley. Right now a few things have changed but not to mush. The NAM is much drier than the earlier runs but the GFS is a little wetter. We can still expect 1-3 inches of snow and some areas could see 4+ inches with heavier bands. We should start out with a mixture of sleet, snow, and rain on Sunday morning with the change to all rain during the day. The change over from rain to all snow should happen between 10pm and 2am Monday. This change should happen very abruptly and we could see some icing problems as well, the chance of snow after midnight on Sunday is 100%. More after the morning model runs.

Fine Line Indeed.

An Alberta Clipper system will move in on Sunday and may bring a chance of snow to North Alabama.
GFS

NAM

NAM

GFS

Below is a composite map of reported snow accumulations as of 1pm. Some areas may have more than is shown but these are the reported numbers to NWS.

Snow broke out this morning and is still falling in most areas.Out of Alabama's 67 counties snow has been reported in 62 of them the only exceptions were the Shoals area. Notice the line on the map yes a few counties only have snow falling in a very small area like Madison County for example areas in SW Huntsville or near the Tennessee river around Dittos landing are the only areas to see snow fall in the County.

Updated Snowfall Accumulation Predictions

Well like I have said in previous posts the track of the low keeps changing. It is far enough to the North and it has enough moisture with it that it is already snowing in Arkansas. So what does this mean? It means that the NWS offices in Huntsville as well as local Meteorologists are saying we could get some accumulating snow here in North Alabama and I agree. Not only will we see snow on Friday and Alberta Clipper System will bring another chance of snow to North Alabama on Sunday into Monday. I feel confident in my latest Accumulation chart and here it is. We can expect the snow to start sometime around daybreak in parts of the Valley. Although we should see snow here in North Alabama but the heavier snow will be South of the I-20 corridor.

Here It Comes.

18z NAM for Friday

18z GFS for Friday

Well with each run it changes a little bit each time. Still it looks as if the most significant snow will fall across South Alabama, but areas like the Birmingham metro could see 2"-4". Notice the GFS is showing a little more moisture up into North Central Alabama about 1/2" of moisture as far north as Cullman. Here in the Tennessee Valley we are right on the edge, could the low move a little North of the predicted track and bring us accumulating snows we will just have to wait and see. Remember with all Alabama snow events expect anything (like the mini snowstorm we had on Monday). Anything is possible sta tuned.

Little Northward Progression

As I mentioned there was chance of the Low to track a little further northward. here is the HPC prediction of a 10% chance of at least 4" of snow. It looks to be from near Decatur to Montgomery. Will this continue to trend more to the north or will it settle in and this be what we can expect? As with all Winter events in the South things can change up to 24 hours out so we will pin point it further after the later runs today.

First Stab At Accumulation Guess.

Best guess with current observations

The ECMWF model for Friday

GFS model for Friday

Canadian model for Friday

Looking at all models this morning they are still not in total agreement on anything. The Candanian GEM is the most aggressive so snow lovers are pulling for this outcome. It shows 3" for the Birmingham area and up to 5" to the south near Montgomery.The GFS still keeps most of the moisture down near the coast and the ECMWF is right in the middle. so with that said I am going to make my best guess for snow accumulations here they are. Please remember this is a couple days out and this whole system may be moved northward as typical with the climatology and the current El nino pattern.

More Questions Than Answers.

ECMWF model

European

GFS

Well from all models I have seen it is still a crap shoot fro who gets snow and who gets nothing on Friday. The GFS shows little to no precipitation at all for anywhere in the state. The NAM looks a little better for the folks in South Alabama, the European looks good for Central to South Alabama. If we went by theses models today it would be likely the best chance for accumulating snowfall would be US 80 to the south. The Birmingham area might see 1.5" based on the Euro model and 0" based on the GFS but this is still all out there and up for debate right now. For us up here in Huntsville it looks like it might be a big ol goose egg if these models stay true. but we will see.

Whoops. Hello Snow.

These images come from Cherokee Alabama(via NWS Huntsville)


Well if wonders never cease. As I am sure all of you know the snowfall this morning was not forecast.The actual forecast for today was for rainfall coming in later this evening and yes it is still in the forecast. That is just the way it goes in Alabama in the Winter time.
Here are some snow totals so far:
3.0 INCHES WAS REPORTED IN WATERLOO
2.0 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 2.0
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 4.0 INCHES IN FLORENCE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 4.5 INCHES IN GREEN HILL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3.5 INCHES IN ELKMONT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3.0 INCHES IN HARVEST
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3.5 INCHES IN ANDERSON
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 4.0 INCHES IN CHEROKEE (SEE PHOTOS)
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3.0 INCHES IN ROGERSVILLE.
and many many more these are just a few of the heavier amounts

The Wait And Watch Game Continues.

This is the ECMWF Valid 0Z Friday

This will be short because I am not going to make much out of it yet. As I mentioned in earlier posts the models change with every run. This is the 0z gfs run today valid for noon Friday. It shows the Low further South and most of the moisture is South as well. Do not pay much attention to these model runs as of yet, this is not a forecast yet just an observation.

Cloudy Gloomy Day.

Not a whole lot going on in Alabama today with the weather although it will be mostly cloudy all day with a little bit of sun peek through later today.Other than that it looks like a boring weather day time to get ready to watch the Super Bowl. Geaux Saints.

Next Week???

Looks good for now.

Well for all Winter weather lovers out there we very well could get the day you have been waiting on this season. even though it is 6 days away it all looks good btween all models. wait and see time.

Next Week???

I will not bore you with forecast models or ensembles at this time. I will tell you that the AO is looking a bit on the negative side once again although it does not look as cold as the first week of January. While we will be in for a RAW day here in Sweet Home Alabama with highs only in the 30s and wind chills in the 20s and no sunshine today we might actually see some on Sunday. As for next week we will see a couple of disturbances come through one around Tuesday or Wednesday and the other over the weekend. The system over the weekend looks interesting for us here in North Alabama, but with the Model madness we are seeing it is hard to pinpoint any details right now so I will not elaborate on anything as of yet. Stay tuned for more info as it gets closer. For everyone in Walker County Alabama if you are interested in severe weather the ABC3340 storm team will be in Sumiton on Feb 11 2010 here are the details from the ABC3340 weather blog. STORM ALERT 2010 IS COMING TO WALKER COUNTY: Our annual severe weather rolls along; our next stop will be on Thursday February 11 at Bevill State Community College in Sumiton. You can meet the ABC 33/40 Weather team, see some amazing Alabama weather stories, learn how to keep your family safe this tornado season, and win some cool stuff. The show begins at 7:00; be sure and get there early to get a good seat. Have a great day.

Getting Bored

A beautiful Madison sunset.

This little guy was not bothered at all by the sleet and ice.

Small layer of ice on the rear of my chase vehicle.

These clouds look like a piece of cotton being pulled apart.

These are the clouds as the sleet started to fall.

As I sit here looking at forecast models for the next week or so it really bores me to the point that I am looking through some photos over the past few weeks. Now do not get me wrong the models look interesting like a potential for snow or ice over the Valentines Day weekend somewhere in the Deep South, but it will change with every run. And there are even a few models showing something IFFY Monday into Tuesday although it looks like enough warm air advection will be around for it to be all rain. And the system that is going to bring our rain tomorrow and tomorrow night looks to be heavy with about 1 1/2" to 2" are possible by the time it is all over with. But anyway more to come when it is really narrowed down. Here are some photos.