Hurricane Alex

Alex is now a Hurricane. Since 1950 there have only been 10 June Hurricanes on record with the largest being on June 25th 1957 when Audrey hit the Texas and Louisiana areas as a CAT 4 killing 419 people. Alex is not expected to get that strong(forecast to make landfall as a CAT 2) but the storm surge could be a problem. This system is extremely large, and is being compared to Dolly as far as flooding and surge concerns. Persons along South Padre Island need to make the proper precautions. Click the title for a South Padre Island web cam. Here is the latest from the NHC on Alex.
LOCATION...23.4N 95.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

4PM CDT update on ALEX

4:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 29
Location: 23.2°N 94.0°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 981

Landfall as a Hurricane is inevitable for ALEX while it looks to be a CAT 1 when it makes landfall in Northern Mexico this could be a real flood threat for Southern Texas. South Padre Island could take a beating as well. Stay tuned for updates.

7pm Update on ALEX

Model consistency is looking more and more the a South Texas Northern Mexico landfall is likely as at least a CAT 2 Hurricane. Some models bring it in as a major CAT 3 storm. Almost all the spaghetti plots are getting in order. Alex should become a Hurricane by tomorrow morning. everyone along the Texas coast should pay attention. Stay tuned for more updates.

Update On ALEX

4:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 27
Location: 19.2°N 90.9°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
As you can see the plots are all over the place on where Alex will go. Most are now hinting that it will be picked up by the trough and turned more to the North bringing the Texas coast back into play. Some are even showing Alex making it all the way to Louisiana before making landfall. Also heard that it might be a pretty strong hurricane at one point, but let us not count our chickens before they hatch. Stay tuned for more updates.

Awesome pictures

These pictures are from Angela Rudolph from Pisgah as a thunderstorm was developing. The Rainbow look was from Ice pellets with in the cloud formation giving it a beautiful rainbow look. Thanks Angela for the photos

More on ALEX.

Current Location: 18.4°N 89.9°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Alex is expected to be downgraded to a depression later this morning as it is over land on the Yucatan Peninsula, but should strengthen very rapidly as it moves over the warm waters of the western gulf. It looks as if will become a CAT 1 sometime on Tuesday just before expected landfall in Mexico.
Well it seems as if Alex is destined to hit the northern shores of Mexico, but wait the GFS has other ideas. The NHC has its track of Alex hitting Mexico but the GFS shows Alex being picked up by a strong trough and being pulled back northward. Click the title and you will see the track of Hurricane Elena in 1985 that was picked up by a trough and took back due east before righting its course and making landfall in Mississippi. It is possible to happen but not realistic. It does bare watching very closely.

Alex joins the Party

Well Alex has arrived with max winds at 40 mph and a central pressure of 1004 Mb. All latest models has it going into Texas or Mexico and does not look to effect the oil cleanup, but all that can change. Most models show ALEX staying a Tropical Storm, but there are a few odd balls showing it getting all the way up to CAT 2 strength. Stay tuned to all media outlets for updated info as to the exact track of Alex.

Tropical risk now HIGH

The NHC has upgraded to a high risk of Tropical Cyclone Development in the next 48 hours. We could be talking about ALEX by Saturday. The latest forecast tracks and strength probabilities listed below show that it very well could impact the Gulf Coast. We here at TVST are watching it closely for possible deployment later next week.

All Eyes on the Tropics

Here are the latest forecast plots and track potential for the current
system. We will watch it very closely on the effects of weather along
the coast as well as any weather issues we may see in the Valley so stay tuned.

Alex could be on the Horizon.

As the disturbance in the Caribbean gets its act together there are alot
of concerned eyes watching it. The NHC is predicting the system will
grow in strength to a Tropical Storm or a Minimal Cat 1 hurricane, No
more than that. While the actual track is still up in the air the latest
run shows it coming right up the Mississippi River. The spaghetti Model
is all over the board on this ( the closer together the lines are the
better track can be forecast), but it bares watching. With the oil
disaster clean up in the region of the possible track, it could get real
interesting. Below are the latest forecast models and images on the
system.

ALEX STILL TRYING TO GET IN THE GAME

The Tropical system we have been watching since early last week is finally starting to get better organized. Right now it



is still a tropical wave but it is forecast to be a depression soon. It also is forecast to be in the Gulf Of Mexico by Saturday this could spell trouble for the oil clean up operations. We will watch it very closely.

Time lapse of the shelf cloud as it came into Madison this Morning.

Shelf Cloud 6-19-2010 #3.wmv

Just on a serious note.

Even though Lightning safety week officially starts on June 20th I feel it important to post the NWS lightning safety  information now. With these pop up storms we have been getting here the last couple weeks, there has been a ton of Lightning associated with them. Please read the provided information and stay safe. "WHEN THUNDER ROARS GO INDOORS" Click the title for the NWS page.

Here Comes ALEX??????

The tropics are getting active somewhat as the system east of the Windward Islands is getting more and more organized. There is now a 60% probability on tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours. here is the latest infrared Satellite image and the latest from the NHC in Miami.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Around the Southeast the weather will remain the same HOT HOT HOT. With heat index readings over 100 degrees caution needs to be taken.
The rain chances do go up slightly with the heat but it will be very scattered.

At Clements High School in Limestone County Alabama 6/9/10

Not much change

Well we are very much in the Summer pattern here in the Southeast Hot and Humid. This morning we are seeing a few low level clouds but no rain is falling except for portions of extreme NE Alabama. This all could change tomorrow as a system could bring a little more moisture and the SPC has a slight risk for portions of Southern Tennessee down to the State line. While we are not expecting a major severe weather outbreak on Wednesday there could be a fews strong to severe storms with gusty winds , hail, and lightning.