Thursday, July 22, 2010
TD 3 Should Become Bonnie Soon, And Invest 98 Headed Towards Mexico
Well TD3 has formed and is expected to become a Tropical Storm soon. While mos models keep it just under Hurricane strength, we all know models change very quickly. The latest runs have shifted further to the west land fall could be along the Louisiana Coast and could very well impact the Oil clean up. Effects here in North Alabama really depends on the over all size of the storm and the point of landfall. As we will be on the Eastern side of the circulation, we could see very heavy rain and possibly some Thunderstorms and or spin up tornadoes. Remember this all depends on the exact landfall and the size of the storm, if it tracks further west we may not see anything at all so stay tuned.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Tropical Risk Now HIGH 60%
Invest 97 is looking real good now. If you are in Miami,the Keys, or anywhere along the Southeast coast of Florida you need to monitor this very closely. Most models right now keep this system as a strong TS or a weak Cat1 (RIGHT NOW) so stay tuned for further updates.
Tropical Update!! Could We Have Bonnie?
Invest 97 is really trying to get its act together. Most models take it across the Bahamas and into the East Coast of Florida, but a couple have it coming up into the southern tip of Florida and into the Gulf. It will be monitored regularly so stay tuned for more updates.
Urgent!!! Hottest Temps Of The Year.
The NWS in Huntsville has issued a HEAT ADVISORY effective from noon today until 7pm on Thursday. Temps in the mid to upper 90s and Heat index readings from 100 to 108 degrees, This will likely be upgraded an Excessive Heat Watch or Warning by the weekend with Temps already forecast to be higher. Friday's forecast high in Huntsville is 98, Saturday is 100, and Sunday is 99 respectively. Take all the necessary precautions for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Here is the latest from NWS Huntsville.
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.
BOTH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 90S AND HUMIDITY OF 50 PERCENT OR GREATER WILL COMBINE
TO CREATE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO DROP BELOW 75 DEGREES EACH NIGHT.
EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
HOTTER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A MOIST AIR MASS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO RISE TO NEAR 110 DEGREES. IF THE FORECASTED
CONDITIONS ARE CORRECT...AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. HEAT EXHAUSTION...HEAT CRAMPS...OR IN EXTREME
CASES...HEAT STROKE MAY RESULT FROM PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THESE
CONDITIONS. CHECK FREQUENTLY ON THOSE WHO MAY BE AT RISK...SUCH AS
CHILDREN...THE ELDERLY...AND PEOPLE WITH CHRONIC AILMENTS.
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN
WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY
IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP
ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.
BOTH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 90S AND HUMIDITY OF 50 PERCENT OR GREATER WILL COMBINE
TO CREATE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO DROP BELOW 75 DEGREES EACH NIGHT.
EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
HOTTER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A MOIST AIR MASS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO RISE TO NEAR 110 DEGREES. IF THE FORECASTED
CONDITIONS ARE CORRECT...AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. HEAT EXHAUSTION...HEAT CRAMPS...OR IN EXTREME
CASES...HEAT STROKE MAY RESULT FROM PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THESE
CONDITIONS. CHECK FREQUENTLY ON THOSE WHO MAY BE AT RISK...SUCH AS
CHILDREN...THE ELDERLY...AND PEOPLE WITH CHRONIC AILMENTS.
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN
WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY
IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP
ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.
Friday, July 16, 2010
Urgent!!! Heat Advisory in Effect Today AGAIN
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
319 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010
ALZ001>008-016-TNZ076-096-151600-
/O.NEW.KHUN.HT.Y.0002.100715T1700Z-100716T0000Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...FAYETTEVILLE
319 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS LEVELS. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND 105
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HEAT EXHAUSTION...HEAT CRAMPS...OR IN EXTREME CASES...HEAT STROKE
MAY RESULT FROM PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THESE CONDITIONS. CHECK
FREQUENTLY ON THOSE WHO MAY BE AT RISK...SUCH AS CHILDREN...THE
ELDERLY...AND PEOPLE WITH CHRONIC AILMENTS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
319 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010
ALZ001>008-016-TNZ076-096-151600-
/O.NEW.KHUN.HT.Y.0002.100715T1700Z-100716T0000Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...FAYETTEVILLE
319 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS LEVELS. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND 105
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HEAT EXHAUSTION...HEAT CRAMPS...OR IN EXTREME CASES...HEAT STROKE
MAY RESULT FROM PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THESE CONDITIONS. CHECK
FREQUENTLY ON THOSE WHO MAY BE AT RISK...SUCH AS CHILDREN...THE
ELDERLY...AND PEOPLE WITH CHRONIC AILMENTS.
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Urgent!!! Heat Advisory in Effect Today
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
319 AM CDT THUR JULY 15 2010
ALZ001>008-016-TNZ076-096-151600-
/O.NEW.KHUN.HT.Y.0002.100715T1700Z-100716T0000Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...FAYETTEVILLE
319 AM CDT THUR JUL 15 2010
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM THIS EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM THIS EVENING...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS LEVELS. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND 105
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HEAT EXHAUSTION...HEAT CRAMPS...OR IN EXTREME CASES...HEAT STROKE
MAY RESULT FROM PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THESE CONDITIONS. CHECK
FREQUENTLY ON THOSE WHO MAY BE AT RISK...SUCH AS CHILDREN...THE
ELDERLY...AND PEOPLE WITH CHRONIC AILMENTS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
319 AM CDT THUR JULY 15 2010
ALZ001>008-016-TNZ076-096-151600-
/O.NEW.KHUN.HT.Y.0002.100715T1700Z-100716T0000Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...FAYETTEVILLE
319 AM CDT THUR JUL 15 2010
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM THIS EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM THIS EVENING...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS LEVELS. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND 105
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HEAT EXHAUSTION...HEAT CRAMPS...OR IN EXTREME CASES...HEAT STROKE
MAY RESULT FROM PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THESE CONDITIONS. CHECK
FREQUENTLY ON THOSE WHO MAY BE AT RISK...SUCH AS CHILDREN...THE
ELDERLY...AND PEOPLE WITH CHRONIC AILMENTS.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Significant Severe Weather Today
The SPC has a large area of the Mississippi River valley in a slight risk today. The main risk for tornadoes will be in and around the Kansas City Metro area. Also damaging winds and hail are also part of the threat along with flooding. The risk area just clips the NW corner of Alabama. Stay tuned for possible deployment from the TVST and stream info.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Invest 96L 50% chance of development
The area of interest that could or could not become Bonnie in the next 48 hours is starting to look a little better organized. The system is not expected to become a Hurricane as all models are in agreement with it staying a Tropical Storm. With that said the models also have it tracking just as Alex last week. This could be a major flooding threat in South Texas so stay tuned for more.
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
7PM CDT Tropical Update
Invest 96 is over the Yucatan at this time dumping tons of rain over the area. The system is expected to strengthen slightly over the next 48 hours and move in a WNW direction. Although it is not forecast to become a hurricane, areas that were affected by Hurricane Alex can expect more flooding and possible beach erosion. The forecast rack has now shifted a little further to the South along the Texas Coast, quite possible the same direction as Alex into Mexico. We will keep an eye on the situation, and here is the latest from the NHC.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO NEAR MERIDA. THE LOW IS BEING INVESTIGATED THIS EVENING BY
TWO NOAA AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DATA FROM THIS MISSION INDICATES ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO NEAR MERIDA. THE LOW IS BEING INVESTIGATED THIS EVENING BY
TWO NOAA AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DATA FROM THIS MISSION INDICATES ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
Monday, July 5, 2010
Invest 95
Invest 95 has strengthened dramatically in the last few hours and tropical storm force winds could reach the Louisiana Coast very soon.
Click the title for radar animation of Invest 95 off the coast of Louisiana.
Click the title for radar animation of Invest 95 off the coast of Louisiana.
Tropical update 8am EDT Monday July 5th 2010
Well the Atlantic Basin is getting fired up. There are 3 areas of concern out there at the present time. 1 in the Northern Gulf, 1 in the Western Caribbean, and 1 out near the Lesser Antilles. Area #2 (invest 96, that could become BONNIE soon) is now leaning on a more northern track than first discussed and that will bring areas from Galveston Island to the Louisiana Coast into play. Area #1 (invest 95) looks like it will finally come ashore near the Texas/Louisiana border no additional strengthening is forecast with this system, so it looks like just a rain maker for them. Area #3 way is way out there and might fizzle out soon do to unfavorable upper level winds, But regardless it will dump a lot of rain in the area of Puerto Rico and the Antilles. Stay tuned for more info on the main areas of interest for possible development. If Invest 96 keeps turning to the NNE it could very well impact the oil clean up efforts.
Sunday, July 4, 2010
4 areas of possible development in the tropics
Latest from the NHC on invest 95L in the Gulf and invest 96L in the Caribbean.
A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 125
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY MONDAY EVENING.
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD AND
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 125
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY MONDAY EVENING.
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD AND
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Tropical Update
There are 2 areas that are churning in the tropics at this time. Both areas right now are at 10% in the northern gulf(invest 95L) and 20% in the Caribbean (invest 96L). As you can see some models bring invest 95 into Louisiana or into Texas with no further development. And the invest 96 looks to take the same path as Alex and could become a Hurricane as well more on that to come so saty tuned.
Saturday, July 3, 2010
Invest 95L 10% chance of development
Well the non tropical Low in the gulf (aka invest 95L) still does not look as if it will develop into anything other than a rain maker. It is heading towards the oil spill area and expected to turn to the NNW later and head up the Mississippi River. The plots and forecast maps below are the latest from the NHC and as you can see only 3 models expect it to strengthen into anything. We will monitor it close and if it does develop the TVST storm team will deploy on it. Stay tuned for later updates.
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