Nicole

Well She is still there and does not look real impressive. Her track will take her close to Miami and up just off the East coast. So in my mind there is just not that much in the way of weather to write about today. All of that will change in a few weeks as our 2nd tornado season will get started near the end of October into November and December.

Latest on Ivest 96!!!!

Looks as if this system will skirt up the eastern seaboard over the weekend. Below is the latest from the NHC along with some possible tracks and strength possibilities.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ALTHOUGH THE LOWEST SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA AND GRAND
CAYMAN...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS LOCATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE
TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA TODAY.
THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

It Is Still There!!

Well we are 6 days from leaving for Disney and the system that we have been watching is still there. Although it is not as near as impressive as the past few runs, and looks to be a big rain maker for Florida next weekend. This system could still develop into Nicole by the weekend, but its to early to tell. Well on a brighter note we got some much needed rainfall here in the Southeast over the past couple days and much cooler temps to go with it. With the secondary tornado season about to get started in a few weeks we will be getting the blog started on a daily basis by then with any info on severe weather and chase probabilities that go with it so stay tuned.

It Is Going To Happen!!!!

Well it looks as if my fears are going to come true. As you will see below it seems as if what is now Tropical Storm Matthew will impact Florida by next weekend. Matthew is going to hit near Belize by early Sunday morning and weaken into a depression as it lingers around over land for a day or two. Some models have it turning to the right just before it hits the coast, and clip the western tip of Cuba and take aim on the Florida Keys on or around Saturday the 2nd of October. I will be in Orlando with my family on that day so it could be a rough day or two at the Happiest Place On Earth (Disney). The one good thing is it looks as if as soon as it comes ashore it will move up the East Coast very quickly. So Stay tuned for more info on this as well as when I arrive in Disney next Saturday for some video or photos if it does indeed turn sour down there.

Saturday Oct 2nd

Sunday Oct 3rd

Monday Oct 4th

TD 15 Has Formed

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
200 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 76.2W
ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF
HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH
FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON...INCLUDING
THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS.

Early October Tropical Trouble.

Well with the model consistency, it is looking more and more likely that there will be a beast of a tropical system we will have to deal with during the first week of October. Last week most of the runs had a system in the Gulf but the last 4 days the runs have been in real agreement that the system will cross Cuba and clip Miami and be on heck of and East Coast storm. Now take into mind this is still considered Voodoo since it is out further than 7 days, but it is showing up on every run and the only changes has been it getting stronger. Below are a few model comparisons beginning Thursday Sept 30th and going thru Sunday Oct 3rd, notice how beastly it looks up towards New England. All is a wait and see mode with this thing right so stand by. Also remember that our secondary severe weather season is about to be upon us as well.
Thursday Sept 30

Friday Oct 1

Sat Oct 2

Sunday Oct 3

Follow up to the Way Out There Post.

Well as it always happens with LONG RANGE GFS models they change and will continue to do so. On last nights runs and post I made it showed a Hurricane in the Gulf and slamming into the west coast of Florida near the Saint Petersburg/Clearwater area during the last week of Sept on or about the 28th. Well the latest runs have slowed the system down and has it slamming into the above mentioned areas on or about Saturday October 2nd. If it holds together this could be devastating for areas along the West coast of the Florida peninsula including Tampa. I will keep watching this one close as like I said earlier I am taking the family to Disney for Fall Break that week.
Tuesday Sept 28th

Saturday Oct 2nd

Saturday Oct 2nd @ 850MB

Saturday Oct 2nd @ 500MB

Way Out There

Well as some say way out there in Voodoo land, when I saw this it made me sick. Notice the Low just below Cuba on the 25th. Now look at it on Tuesday the 28th. The Long range GFS (and I mean LONG range) is putting a Hurricane in the gulf and the re-curving into the west coast of Florida and then up the East Coast. If this happens it will make me so MAD. I have waited on Gulf systems all this time and it better not happen on the days mentioned. I am planning a trip to Orlando to Disney with the family that week so I hope it does not happen. Here are a few reasons why.
1. I am not going to chase it will be family time.
2. If it is a hurricane my trip will be canceled and we will be out all the money for reservations.
3. That would be a long drive to have to turn around and come back with upset kids.
Well at least it is all VOODOO for now and will probably be gone on the next set of model runs. We are do a Gulf storm I just hope it holds of until I get home and can chase it. Oh well only time will tell , but I guess you have to love how some of these long range models look.


Saturday Sept 25th

Satuerday Sept 25th

Tuesday Sept 28th

Tropics Getting Interesting!!

Well as the weather here in North Alabama is fairly boring right now I will turn to the tropics which for all intense purposes has been boring for me as well. Although there has been some beasts of hurricanes out there over the last couple weeks each one re-curves out into the Atlantic, which is a good thing for the U.S. coastlines but boring for those of us that report on weather. Below are a few graphics on Hurricane Igor which is a CAT 4 right now with winds at 150 mph (CLICK THE TITLE FOR ANIMATED LOOP OF IGOR) and Tropical storm Julia with winds at 40 mph. Each one of these storms look as if they to will re-curve back out into the Atlantic. There is another system in the Caribbean that could develop into Karl in the next 48 hours and could reach somewhere along the gulf coast or it could go into Mexico as other storms this season. As I wait on our secondary severe weather season (which over the last few years has been worse than spring) I will occasionally post on the tropics. Stay tuned for the up-coming Fall tornado season here in the Southeast.

The Tropical Train Has Left The Depot

Well as I am sure most of you know the tropics in the Atlantic basin are getting fired up as it looks as if we are going to have one storm after another firing as the systems come of the African coast. It looks as if Earl which is a Cat 4 right now will clip the outer banks of North Carolina late tonight and then up to Cape Cod tomorrow before heading into Nova Scotia. Fiona also looks to re curve out into the Atlantic much like Danielle did coming close to Bermuda. Now onto Gaston the long range GFS shows him re curving as well just before reaching the East Coast, but it is at a lower latitude than the Danielle or Earl so we will watch it close. The next wave coming off the African coast (which is a lower latitude that Gaston) will bare watching as well and could be Hermine sooner than later. So stay tuned to all sources of weather if you live or have friends and family along the East Coast.


Gaston

Fiona

Earl