More on Mississippi Severe Threat

The threat of severe weather for portions of Mississippi is still there, but the overall tornado threat is not as impressive with latest runs.The runs below are at 21z Friday and then it really weakens on the next model runs. The tornado threat is still there(worse to the South), but the main threat looks to be strong gust winds, large hail, and torrential rainfall as the Cold front pushes thru the warm, moist, and unstable airmass that will across the state. There will be tornado warnings issued I am sure as well as FF warnings. Looks as if areas near Yazoo City, Vicksburg, and Jackson will be under the gun again this time. These areas have had there fair share of severe weather this year already. As for Alabama weather at this time it looks as if we are looking at a major flooding threat across the Tennessee Valley with 1-3" of rain possible before its over (some areas may see more.) With the snow melt from our Christmas snowstorm the ground is pretty saturated already. So if you live in or near a flood prone area please be aware of your surroundings. Stay tuned for more.

NWS JACKSON HWO issued 5:30am today

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA NEW YEARS EVE.
THIS WILL OCCUR AS A LARGE...POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
ARKLAMISS REGION...AND AN UNSEASONABLY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TORNADOES...
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON NEW YEARS EVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SLOW...PROLONGING THE THREAT
INTO NEW YEARS DAY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. PLEASE
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN JACKSON ON THIS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.



21z Friday Effective STP

21z Friday Fixed STP

21z Friday SB Cape

21z Friday SigSvr

21z Friday SCP

0z Saturday 3km Helicity

06z Sat

12z Sat

12z Saturday UKMET

Potential For Severe Wx Across Miss Including Tornadoes On New Years Eve.

Looking more an d more likely for some type of severe weather across portions of Mississippi
on Friday evening into the overnight hours to Saturday morning. Latest models show the bulk
storm activity will be after everyone has gone to bed although a few supercells could very
well develop anytime Friday Afternoon across the area. Below is the latest from NWS in Jackson.
As for Alabama it is to early to tell if we will see any severe wx. I am not to concerned with
That right now as models do not support it right now. We will see some thunder and a warning
or 2 is not out of the question, but gusty winds and heavy rain are the main threat.
The main tornado, high wind, and hail threat seem to be in Central to Southern Mississippi
Extending down into SW Alabama on Saturday. Stay tuned as we fine tune the forecast later.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE
LONG TERM REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE ALSO REMAINS TIMING AND EVOLUTIONS DIFFERENCES WITH THE
FRIDAY SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE THOUGH THAT BY FRIDAY MORNING A DEEP
CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SUB 1000MB LOW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR CWA
FRIDAY AND ENTER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT A VERY STRONG AND SHEARED WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO
HELP INCREASE DEEP MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. PWS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW TO MID
60 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINTS BACK ACROSS THE CWA. COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT'S RUN MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE LESS INSTABILITY WITH THE
SYSTEM FRIDAY THAT BECOMES EVEN MORE LIMITED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING. STILL...CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO NEW YEARS DAY WILL
EXIST OVER OUR CWA. DISCRETE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ESPECIALLY OVER OUR WEST THEN ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS STILL APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
SECONDARY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED OUR CWA WITH A
SLIGHT RISK FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS STILL ENDS THE RAIN
MUCH EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
TO OUR WEST PROVIDING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT A LARGE 1030MB HIGH
WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
OF OUR CWA. THE SREF LOOKED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE AND THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD END OVER OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER OUR CWA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY BUT THE GFS INSISTS ON BRINGING PCPN BACK INTO OUR CWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS US DRY UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY.
BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN AND ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM
WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS MOVES THE SURFACE HIGH A LITTLE TOO FAST EAST OF
OUR REGION MONDAY ALLOWING FOR OVERRUNNING MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE
OLD COLD FRONT TO RETURN INTO OUR CWA. WL CUT POPS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LIMIT BEST CHANCES TO OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES.
/22/


NAM STP valid 00z Sat

NAM STP valid 18z Sat

Supercell Composite 00z Sat

Supercell Composite 12z Sat

GFS Models

1am Saturday 3km SRH

1am Saturday 1km SRH

SB Cape 18z Friday

Midnight Sat

Potential For Severe Wx Across Miss Including Tornadoes On New Years Eve.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
304 PM CST TUE DEC 28 2010

...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE NEW YEARS EVE...

.DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION WILL COVER THE SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT POTENTIAL FOR LATE WEEK...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DISCUSSION
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

NEW YEARS EVE...

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: LATER THIS WEEK...A LARGE...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE
WILL BE BARRELING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE EAST COAST AND WRN ATLC. THE TROUGH WILL HAVE GAINED
CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION ON THURSDAY FROM STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SW-NE-ORIENTED JET
MAX / 115 KT AT H2 / WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE
CUTS OFF IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND RACES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DEEPENING TO A NEAR-518-DECAMETER H5 LOW BY 00Z
ON JANUARY 1 2011. THE MOST INTENSE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND DEEP-
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NW OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD. HOWEVER...
TRAILING MID/UPPER-ASCENT EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONG FETCH OF
DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY AFTER NOON...COMPLEMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INVOF A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION
NEW YEARS EVE.

MOISTURE OVERVIEW: AN ELONGATED SYNOPTIC FRONT OVER THE WRN AND
CNTRL ATLC CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR NOVA SCOTIA TO NEAR 30N53W TO
JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE FRONT EXTENDS FURTHER SWWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS A STATIONARY FRONT.
A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN STEADILY BUILDING DURING
THE LAST FEW DAYS INVOF THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AS A SERIES OF WEAK TROPICAL IMPULSES HAVE DRIFTED WWD AND
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE FRONT. AMSU/SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT DEPICTS A NEARLY 180-MILE WIDE ZONE OF 2.0-2.2-INCH PWAT
VALUES POOLING INVOF THE FRONT OVER THE CARIBBEAN...MARKING THE DEEP
MOISTURE BREWING WELL TO THE SOUTH...DESPITE THE COLD/DRY AIRMASS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS.

THIS MOISTURE WILL BE A KEY PLAYER IN THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
SEVERE CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TRANSLATES FROM THE SERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. SRLY RETURN FLOW WEST OF RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO PUMP COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...WITH TROPICAL
ORIGINS...INTO THE CWA FOLLOWING THE INITIAL MID-WEEK MOISTURE
SURGE. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 64-66F RANGE NOSING UP TO THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. PREFRONTAL PWAT VALUES OF 1.30-1.35 INCHES
ARE PROGGED TO BE RUNNING UP TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH H85
THETA-E VALUES REACHING THE 325-327K RANGE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG AND
PROLONGED LLVL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 30-40 KT DURING THE
PRECEDING COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THIS DEEP INTO THE COLD SEASON.

MESOSCALE PARAMETERS: NWP CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PARAMETERS AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6.3-6.5 C/KM WILL SUPPORT A RELATIVELY WIDE ZONE OF UPWARDLY BUOYANT
PARCELS...WITH AN AXIS OF SBCAPE/MLCAPE VALUES OF 600-1100 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH SREF MEDIAN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES
OF 40-50 KT...THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY
AND MODERATE/STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
MORPHOLOGIES COULD BE SUPPORTED. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DISPLACEMENT
OF THE STRONGEST DEEP ASCENT NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
STRONG LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO
EVOLVE TOWARD A MORE QUASILINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MODE LATER IN THE
EVENT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. ULTIMATELY...IT IS TOO EARLY
TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT DETAILS ON CONVECTIVE MORPHOLOGY...THOUGH
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

CONVECTIVE HAZARDS: VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW / SOUTHWESTERLY H85
WINDS OF 40-45 KT / WILL CERTAINLY RESULT IN STRONG LLVL SHEAR.
WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE RELATIVELY BACKED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGLY CURVED LLVL
HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES OF
150-300 M2/S2...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THE
QUANTITY OF LLVL MOISTURE AND LLVL BUOYANCY WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. MODELS PROJECT THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
PARAMETER TO REACH 2-5 UNITS RANGE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
CWA...WHICH STUDIES SUGGEST COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES. AN ANALOG TO THIS EVENT...THE 26 NOVEMBER 1988
EVENT...WITH SIMILAR SYNOPTIC AND MOISTURE GEOMETRIES...SUPPORTED
MULTIPLE TORNADOES INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THE UPCOMING NEW YEARS EVENT IS FORECAST TO FEATURE A MORE
INTENSE CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURES
DOWN TO NEAR 990 MB...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE CWA. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH
THE CONVECTION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD... SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WIND EVENT IF A QLCS EVOLVES. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WITH H5 TEMPS FALLING TO THE -13
TO -15C RANGE...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD ALSO BECOME A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AS
EARLIER RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE SHOWN.

FORECAST CHANGES: GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER-END SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS GIVEN ITS
OCCURRENCE ON NEW YEARS EVE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE
RAMPING UP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN OFFICIAL PRODUCTS. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT IS BEING ISSUED HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ON NEW YEARS EVE...AND ESPECIALLY THE CONCERN
FOR TORNADOES. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE ARKLAMISS REGION...AND EVERYONE SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION. /COHEN/

Statewide Snowfall Totals From Christmas Weekend

Just A few More Images From Our White Christmas

A Look Back To December 20th 2010

Here is what I posted on Dec 20th in regards to our Snow on Christmas Day (minus all the model outputs of course)

Some Models Show Snow In Alabama On Christmas Day

Well here we go Will it Snow or will it not snow? That is the million dollar question. Some models say yes right now the European says about 1-2" across the Tennessee Valley with the 540 line right about the Tennessee River, the Canadian is looking like 5"+ in North Alabama and 2-3" along the I-20 corridor with the 540 line near Birmingham, and the GFS is saying just a few flurries in the Tennessee Valley (notice the wrap around moisture in North Alabama)with the 540 line just across the state line. The ECMWF (European) has been pretty aggressive the last couple days, and the Canadian is now the most aggressive. The NAM and GFS have been a little hesitant and with the the 4 split since the Euro and Canadian have not fared well this Cold Season so far most local Mets are working around it but they do mention it from time to time and are really waiting until most likely Thursday to really talk it up or knock it down. Always remember THIS IS NO FORECAST just a outlook. Look at the to model outlooks for first of January looks to be a couple of potent Snowy events on the table but it will change as well. I know most people will be hoping the the Canadian holds true as it is the most robust of the 4.It may fall completely off of the table, but it is sure nice to see it possible. Only time will tell, I will have more tomorrow evening.

Looks like the Canadian won out with this one and as mentioned in this post that the local METS did finally forecast snow for Christmas day but was very shy in the amount with all 3 local station guys giving less than an inch across the Valley except for NE Ala where they gave 2". This was an Historic Event and a learning experience for everyone. Please do not think I am knocking the locals because I AM NOT. I am not a forecaster but I do my own forecasts during events (at the time of the post on the 20th i was not forecasting.) You cannot really forecast Winter Wx that far out, but I just have opinions about weather and love sharing them with everyone so thanks to all who read this blog.

Big Snow From Iowa.

Most people across the Deep South cringe at the thought of 4" of snow, in laymen terms our State shuts down. Below are some pictures from Christmas Eve in NE Iowa from a friend and fellow weather enthusiast Danny Murphy of 2dstorms. 19" and they are still going strong, if they get just four inches up there it is business as usual. Thanks for the photos Danny and hope you had a Merry Christmas. Click the title above for the link to the 2dstorms site.

Just Having Fun

My daughters enjoying their first real snow ever. Yes they saw the little dusting we got back in February and March but this was the topper and it was a White Christmas to boot.

Historic White Christmas Across Alabama

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 3 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT HUNTSVILLE TODAY. THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.3 SET IN 1989. Not real sure yet as I am still trying to find out but as of 5:30pm Birmingham still had no measurable snow at the official recording station at the international airport, so not sure if they have or will finally have a White Christmas. As soon as I find out I will pass it on to everyone.

Well what a beautiful day as we have seen a Historic White Christmas across Alabama. Looking back on last nights chats most were still saying that we would not get very much across North Alabama. There were 2 people that had different opinions my friend and fellow weather geek Keith Lyle and myself. We both have really been talking up the potential for a White Christmas for about the last week, we would look at models and temperatures everyday. we would adjust and then readjust how much we thought we might get, and I even posted my thoughts on here with a map. I missed by just a little as I forecast 1-2" across Madison county and I had 4.35" at my home in the city of Madison. Late last night as model runs came in and it was looking more and more like a decent snowfall was going to unfold. Most others where still saying dusting to 1/2" across North Alabama and 2-3" in the NE corner of the state. Keith stuck to his original forecast as did I, and we were spot on. Way to go Keith I will forecast with you any day. Well below, are a few pictures from today the top few are from when the snow was just getting going with the roads still clear. The ones that are the same shots were exactly 45 minutes later and as you can see the roads were white. Also below are a few snowmen from along the way.

Snowfall Possible Across The South On Christmas

WELL SOME MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA ON SATURDAY. THE NAM IS OUR FRIEND RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS THE MOST MOISTURE FOR US AT THIS TIME. THE EUROPEAN WHICH HAS BEEN THE BRUTE WITH THE MOST MOISTURE WITH IT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IS NOW THE DRIEST OF THE ONES LISTED BELOW. THE CANADIAN ALSO IS DRIER THAN RECENT RUNS. WE ARE CONFIDENT IN SAYING THAT SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. NOW IT WILL NOT BE A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN THE STORYBOOK SENSE AS WE WILL NOT WAKE UP TO A BLANKET OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX AROUND THE NOON HOUR IN THE HUNTSVILLE METRO AND BE ALL SNOW BY 4-5PM. AT THE BOTTOM IS MY ACCUMULATION FORECAST BASED ON MODEL DATA AND OTHER FORECASTS. I WILL TWEEK IT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS I AM SURE THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL CHANGE A LITTLE. ALL IT WILL TAKE IS A LITTLE JOG TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH AND OUR CHANCE WILL CHANGE CONSIDERABLY. AT THIS MOMENT THE NWS IN HUNTSVILLE DOES NOT HAVE ANY WINTER WX ADVISORIES OUT FOR THE COUNTIES IN THEIR SERVICE AREA. OHX (NASHVILLE NWS) DOES HAVE WINTER STORM WATCHES OUT FOR MOST OF THEIR COVERAGE AREA. WE VERY WELL COULD SEE AT THE LEAST A WINTER WX ADVISORY ISSUED LATER ON CHRISTMAS EVE OR DURING THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS. AS THE ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR LATE SATURDAY AND THE TEMPERATURES FALL THIS WILL CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON
AREA ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES DUE TO TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING.

BEGIN TAKING THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS NOW AND STAY TUNED TO FUTURE
WEATHER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
HUNTSVILLE, LOCAL NEWS, AND HERE. NEXT POST WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.






RPM VALID 7PM SATURDAY

18Z GFS VALID 1PM SATURDAY

18Z NAM VALID 1PM SATURDAY

ECMWF VALID 1PM SATURDAY

MY PERSONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION PREDICTIONS

Well The Inconsistancy Is Back

Well the models have started the tango again and are dancing all over the floor. As you can see from the models outputs below none are on the same page. We do note the NAM is now the has most of the moisture in North Alabama and Southern Tennessee. The GFS has most of the state in the moisture, but in both cases the 540 line is in the Tennessee Valley. The UKMET also has the moisture across North Alabama with the 540 line just north of the state line. The GFS snowfall predictor has very little if any snow accumulation across North Alabama, while the GFS is the more aggressive with 2" for areas from I-65 to the East and North of the Tennessee River. Now with more on the model outputs from the European and Canadian, both are a little drier across North Alabama as the Canadian has almost he whole state dry, if you remember they were both showing decent moisture for North Alabama in earlier runs, although they both have the 540 lines a lot further South. So please remember THIS IS STILL NOT A FORECAST. I will not try to forecast anything until later tonight or tomorrow morning and then I will post my accumulation forecast as well. All the models we see now will more than likely change with the track of the low in the Gulf and the system coming in from the West so stay tuned.



RPM Accumulated snow output

18z NAM Saturday Snow Accumulation

18z NAM Precipitation

12z UKMET Saturday

06z run of GFS precip location valid 1pm Saturday

EMCWF Saturday

GEM Saturday 1pm

12z GEM Another Look

06z NAM

06Z GFS