Tennessee Valley Storm Trackers: Wednesday Severe Potential Update!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Monday, April 25, 2011

Wednesday Severe Potential Update!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The SPC has issued their day three convective outlook(Wednesday),and they already have much of North Alabama under a moderate risk. It looks like all of the ingredients will be there for this to be a potential tornado outbreak much like the one on April 15th across South Alabama.A surface low will form north of Memphis, which will give very favorable low level shear, and it looks like the capping inversion should break by mid-afternoon sometime around 2-4pm (earlier than that across North Mississippi) with scattered supercells forming over North and Central Alabama, which will have potential for large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes. Based on the forecast parameters, a few strong, long track tornadoes will be possible Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. But we must look at Tuesday first as you can see from the SPC outlook has us under a 30% probability which is still in the slight criteria. While we will most likely see a squall line push in during the pre dawn hours on Tuesday do not expect it to stabilize us to much as the risk is for tomorrow afternoon. Our BIG weather day still will be on Wednesday, as the Supercell parameter, STP, and Severe Hail parameters are near Maxed out. Make sure your NOAA weather radio handy over the next 2 days. Now lets take this with a grain of salt as well because on the 15th the SPC started with a MDT risk over much of North Alabama as well and the warm front did not progress to the north and all of the severe weather was to our South, so we will make our changes accordingly. Stay tuned for our chase and stream details over the next 24 hours.

Tuesday severe probability