IRENE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well as has been the case each run over the past few days the 12Z models have once again shifted east. So it now looks like a less chance of impact over Florida and increases the risk to the coasts of North and South Carolina. Although with each model run she keeps moving east and might not be a land falling system at all, and could be a coast hugging nuisance causing a major headache for everyone up the east coast. Notice the spaghetti plot/strength models below you see her as a possible Cat4 near South Carolina. So areas from Savannah, Ga to Beaufort North Carolina need to pay close attention to any and all information with this system. If I had to make a guess to where I believe it will make landfall based on today's models I would pick Bald Head Island NC. So stay tuned for updates to see if my landfall point proves correct.


Storm surge forecast for the Bahamas

1 track model

Spaghetti plot

Wind speed probabilities

Strength possibilities

Strength possibilities Carolina Coast