Irene update!!!!!

Well Hurricane Irene now has sustained winds of 100 mph, and will be tearing through the Bahamas as a CAT 3 hurricane or stronger over the next 48 hours.

Most model guidance continues to shift a little to the east, and the highest landfall probabilities look to remain over the North Carolina coast Saturday afternoon or Saturday night so I am sticking with my initial landfall target of Bald Head Island NC. It looks as if Hurricane Irene will be a major hurricane at the time of landfall,if you notice one of the plots below even have it as CAT 5.

There is a chance that Irene will remain just offshore, and with the continuing model trends to the east it could happen, but that is up for debate based on who you talk to at this point.Being 5 days out trying to forecast a land falling system is tough and that is why the NHC has such a large cone in their tracking maps.
The GFS shows Irene (bottom image) heading right up the East coast towards some major cities on Sunday night into Monday… Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston could be impacted in a major way by then. So if you know someone along the east coast please keep an eye on the local weather info and stay tuned here for updates at least 1 per day until landfall is imminent