Stormy Day!!!!

Well just as I was about to call it quits today as it seemed the CAP was to strong, BAM it broke with a vengeance. I came across this damage in Limestone County as a Severe Thunderstorm was rolling through. The storm had history of 65mph winds in the Shoals so it was no surprise to find more damage along they way. The CAP held strong up until just after the noon hour and then storms began to fire all across North Central Alabama. As of right now no confirmed tornadoes in Alabama but that may change after the NWS survey teams go out on Tuesday to look at damage. Stay tuned as more info from the NWS comes in.

Severe Monday On The Way!!!!

Ok here we go. As most of you may know the SPC has a moderate Risk for severe weather for portions of Arkansas, West Tenn, West Kentucky,Southern Illinois, and the Boot Heel of Missouri for the 2nd time is less than a week. This is going to be a dangerous situation as this system is not expected to unfold until after dark. Then as the system progresses eastward the SPC has a large area defined in a slight risk for Monday. Yes there is a chance it may be upgraded to a Moderate Risk by tomorrow morning as well, but we will have to wait and see. A squall line into the northwest corner of Alabama around sunrise Monday and push eastward throughout the day. Severe weather parameters will be in place, The Helicity values look to be around 150 to 300, CAPE values are around 1000 and surface dews approaching between 65-70 degrees. Although these values are not overly impressive they are more impressive than the January 21 2010 event that dropped the tornado in Huntsville.
Helicity values are respectable, so an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. We could see tornado watches come out for parts of Alabama beginning in the early morning hours and lasting much of the day. We are not expecting a whole lot of rain with this system at all maybe 1" total in some areas. Stay tuned for further updates and my chase plans tomorrow.


(Below is a look back at the CAPE values during that event)
Jan 21 2010


1km Helicity 12z Monday

SB Cape 18z Monday

12z Monday SigSvr

12z Monday STP Effective

STP Fixed 12z Monday

Supercell Composite 12z Monday

Round 2 on Sunday Round 3 on Monday!!!!!!!!

Well Round 2 and then I guess you could call it Round 3 is on the way to parts of the deep south. There is a cold front that is draped across the gulf coast today and that will start to lift to the north as a warm front bringing temps back into the low to mid 70s on Sunday. Not really expecting much in the way of rain during the day on Sunday an outside sprinkle is possible but not likely. We are watching a trough as it begins to progress eastward and triggers a decent severe weather event across portions of the Ozarks. As the system moves eastward it should weaken a little but with that said it will be responsible for generating conditions favorable for severe weather, and the SPC has seen that and issued their standard risk (SLIGHT)for Monday across a good portion of Central and North Alabama. While this looks to be a QLCS event there is also some evidence that we might see embedded supercells with the potential for isolated tornadoes. The morning run of the GFS slows our system down a little bit more, pushing the bulk of the activity into the afternoon hours. This timing could spell more trouble, but still instability values are not very high less than 500j/kj (but we have had large tornadoes with less.) The Helicity values are near perfect for sustaining rotating updrafts if they form. The STP, SigSvr, SigHail, and supercell composites are all very impressive as well. This is a system that needs to be watched closely as it draws closer. So stay tuned for updates.



Sunday MDT Risk

Monday SLIGHT risk

12z Monday Significant Hail Parameter

12z Monday Significant Severe Parameter

12z Monday Significant Tornado Parameter

12z Monday Supercell Composite

12z Monday SB Cape

12z Monday ML Cape

3km Helicity 12z Monday

1km Helicity 12z Monday

Tornadoes Confirmed From Thursday Nigths Storms In Louisiana, Mississippi And Alabama

Hackleburg Alabama

ON THE EVENING OF THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 24TH, A SQUALL LINE PASSED
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA CAUSING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF STRAIGHT LINE
WIND DAMAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. AS PART OF THIS SQUALL LINE, THERE
WAS ONE AREA THAT RECEIVED DAMAGE THAT WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF A
BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN.

IN RESPONSE TO THIS DAMAGE, A SURVEY TEAM OF NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS COMPLETED AN ASSESSMENT OF THE AREA JUST
OUTSIDE OF HACKLEBURG IN MARION COUNTY. THESE ARE THEIR FINDINGS:

...MARION COUNTY TORNADO...

EVENT DATE: FEBRUARY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: EF-0 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 75-80
INJURIES/FATALITIES: NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 34.2858/-87.8578 AT 1018 PM
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 34.2878/-87.8482 AT 1018 PM
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 0.5
DAMAGE WIDTH (IN YARDS): 100

AS PART OF A SQUALL LINE, THE TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE TOWN OF HACKLEBURG. TRAVELING ON THE GROUND
FOR ONLY 1/2 MILE, THE TORNADO DID CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO A NUMBER
OF CHICKEN BARNS AND OUTBUILDINGS IN THE AREA, EXTENSIVELY LIFTING
TIN ROOFS AND OVERHANGS.

WARNINGS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING #009 WAS IN EFFECT FROM 935 PM
UNTIL 1015 PM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING #011 WAS IN EFFECT FROM
1010 PM UNTIL 1100 PM. TORNADO WARNING #004 WAS IN EFFECT FROM
957 PM UNTIL 1030 PM.

Mississippi Delta Region

EF1 and EF2
Tornado #1 West Carroll Parish La
The tornado first touched down near the intersection of highways 585 and 835 in the northwest part of West Carroll Parish. A grain truck was overturned first. Significant damage occurred to the roof of a church and minor damage occurred to the nearby parsonage. Then, the tornado knocked down a very large tree, which fell on a shed and the corner of a house. Two people narrowly escaped harm from this falling tree. As the tornado continued to move east-northeast, it destroyed a small shed, damaged a larger shed, and blew out some windows of a house. A large antenna was also significantly bent over. A travel trailer was turned about 45 degrees into a garage. The next structure the tornado encountered was a double-wide trailer, which had a large part of the roof blown off. Finally, another trailer was turned over in Kilbourne. Numerous trees were snapped and uprooted along the path.
Rating:EF-1
Estimated Maximum Wind:95 mph
Casualties:none
Damage Path Length:6 miles
Maximum Path Width:75 yards

Tornado #2 Grace Mississippi

The tornado started at Grace, where it downed a few large trees and caused minor roof damage to several homes. The tornado continued into Sharkey County, and just after crossing Dry Bend Road it destroyed a metal outbuilding, scattering tin and other debris a mile downstream. Part of the roof of another larger metal building was taken off at the same location, along with a couple of trees snapped. From here the tornado mainly passed through open fields for a couple of miles, although trees could be seen down along some tree lines. As the tornado approached US Highway 61, it turned more east-northeastward and downed more trees and rolled some equipment at a farm shop. As it crossed Highway 61, it snapped or downed at least 6 wooden power poles. It also caused significant shingle damage to a frame home and downed several trees and large limbs. The tornado then moved back into inaccessible farm fields, and is assumed to have dissipated shortly thereafter.
Rating:EF-2
Estimated Maximum Wind:115 mph
Casualties:none
Damage Path Length:6.5 miles
Maximum Path Width:400 yards

Round 2!!!

Well we got round 1 out of the way with just a few scratches. There were 253 total storm reports as the system fired up and progressed eastward. Of the 253 there were just 12 tornado reports nation wide, with none in Alabama. Now we turn our attention to round 2 which now looks to be a daytime event. With this afternoons model runs the whole system looks to have slowed down and now the main window for storm activity will be 5-6am thru 4-5pm Monday. A daytime event (do not get me wrong) is a better event to have because people are awake and can take cover more quickly and spotters can actually see anything that happens and can report it better to the NWS and EMA. It looks as if the primary surface low will be well to the north, all modes of severe weather will be very possible for us across the South. This setup will be robust compared to the one we just had. Below are a few model outputs valid at noon on Monday,although the SB Cape is not overly impressive that does not matter to much. Notice the STP is over 2 units and the supercell composite are both very impressive and the Helicity is high enough to support rotating updrafts that may develop. The one bad thing about daytime events is the kids will be in school, so Monday will be a day for you to be able to hear watches and warnings that may fire. Stay tunes as we will fine tune this over the weekend.

Day 3 outlook

NAM Supercell Composite Noon Monday

500mb Vortmax Noon Monday

NAM STP Noon Monday

NAM Significant Severe Index Noon Monday

NAM SB Cape Noon Monday

GFS Noon Monday

1km Helicity noon Monday

Round 1 Tomorrow Night; Round 2 Sunday

ROUND 1
Well the SPC has a moderate risk of severe weather in place tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night from near Shreveport to Memphis, with a slight risk across much of North Central Alabama. I have been talking to a few local meteorologists in Mississippi and we all agree that a few strong tornadoes are possible around the Mississippi Delta region (this could include long track tornadoes). Across Alabama the squall line should enter NW Alabama sometime around 10pm and exit the state sometime during the mid morning hours on Friday. Our primary threat will be strong straight line winds (but we cannot rule out a tornado warning or two)so stay tuned to local weather sources and make sure your NOAA radio has fresh batteries. Below is the RPM model valid at midnight Thursday night. It clearly shows the squall line crossing the Alabama/Mississippi line.


Round 2
This system will be coming in on Sunday, but there is a little model madness on the timing. So lets get Round 1 out of here first then we can get a grasp on Round 2 so stay tuned.

Severe Wx On The Way Thursday

Well with the the SPC has a large area outline for severe weather on Thursday and Thursday Night Notice the red areas at 30% for severe weather (not 30% for tornadoes). Environmental shear will be sufficient enough for tornado development,as well a damaging straight line winds. An enhanced tornado threat could exist just South of the Surface Low track eastward along the warm front, where the low level shear will be maximized. Stay weather aware throughout the day on Thursday. we will be going live later in the day Thursday as we drive through Mississippi headed towards Arkansas. This route may change depending on later forecasts so stay tuned.

This system will enter the state of Alabama late Thursday Night. It now looks as if this system will have enough CAPE and better dynamic support as well. So people in Alabama will need to make sure they have means to hear of any warnings that may be issued.

Severe Potential About To Start Gearing Up.

Thursday nigth Midnight

SPC outlook for Thursday/Thursday Night

Well here we go after a long, hard, and cold winter we could be looking at some severe weather This is the day 4 outlook valid for Thursday and Thursday Night. As you can see the SPC has a very large area defined with this outlook and it does include the NW corner of Alabama from Huntsville to the West including the cities of Athens, Muscle Shoals, and Florence. While right now it looks as if the cold front will lose its upper support as it moves into Alabama after midnight Thursday night, we are not expecting anything major with this one south of the Tennessee River, but a strong storm or two here in North Alabama is possible. Points West such as Arkansas and West Tennessee could be under the gun for the bulk of any severe weather including tornadoes on Thursday. We are also watching another system that looks to bring us a decent rain chance and if the GFS models continue to verify we could see our first significant severe weather event of 2011.
00z Tuesday March 1st VortMax

00z Tuesday March 1st

Stay tuned as this begins to unfold and remember you can see my stream live by clicking the link on the right side of the page or at severestudios.com also listen for my field reports on WAFF 48 news in North Alabama

More Cold On The Way

Anyone remember this Aerosmith song?
I'm back
I'm back in the saddle again
I'm back
I'm back in the saddle again

Well after a couple day Hiatus with the passing of my mother I am back in the saddle again. So lets get started with what might go on this weekend. As you can see from the three NAM model outputs and the GFS snowfall accumulation models below there is a slim possibility of some frozen precipitation Thursday into Friday and then again as the system moves out on Saturday morning. With that said take a look at the RPM models it shows all cold rain for us and a decent ICE event over in Mississippi. So with the models not in total agreement we will have to wait and see the later models as they come in. Now on to next week more Arctic air looks to be headed our way as a whopper of HIGH Pressure looks to be over Montana next week. We will see another small chance of wintry precipitation early next week then brutal cold. While you see some local forecasts with highs in the 40s, it is real hard for models to get a handle on temps cue to the large snow pack to our North So we could find it hard to get above freezing on Tuesday and Wednesday. Then as you can see by the NAO and the AO we look to go very positive towards the middle of the month. So can we guess that this might be our last big Arctic Blast next week, I know a lot of people would hope so. Stay tuned for more as models come in later.




Midnight Thursday Night

6am Friday Morning

21z Friday



6am Saturday

15z Saturday

Precip Type

RPM valid 6am Friday

RPM Valid Noon Friday

NAO

AO