Major Severe Weather On the Way For Alabama Early Next Week!!!!!!!!

Well after a couple of low end moderate risks for severe weather it looks as if Mother Nature is fixing to really unleash her fury on us all across the deep south. Below are some model outputs for over night Monday into Tuesday morning. At this time it looks as if this will be an over night event which could be disastrous as this is looking more and more like a classic April severe weather/TORNADO outbreak. The last couple events we have had were not classic just that the ingredients were there for some type of severe weather to occur. Timing right now is still up in the air but for now we will leave it as is. The Helicity values are off the charts with this one ( so rotating updrafts will be well supported) and looks like or SB Cape will be pushing 1750-2000 J/kg. The NAM (North American Mesoscale)and the GFS (Global Forecast System) is painting high temps on Monday between 83F-87F. If this happens we will be a ticking time bomb for lat in the day Monday. With temps that high it will remain very unstable during the overnight hours (sorta like the Super Tuesday Outbreak 2008). Stay tuned as I will post more in depth detail as the system gets closer as it is still 5 days away and has time for change.





SPC Outlooks for early next week

500mb Vortmax Midnight Monday

GFS Midnight Monday

EHI 1am Tuesday

SRH 1am Tuesday

Cold Finish To March Then We Are Watching Next Week!!!!!

Looking at Thursday the 540 line creeps all the way down to near Cullman, and with that we may not get out of the upper 40s for highs on Thursday.

I will say we should reach a high of 49F Thursday, then back up into the mid 50s on Friday. The weekend looks wonderful right now with highs back into the 70s and lows in the 40s. Now we turn to our next system early next week.
We are starting to watch a system heading our way that should arrive on either Monday night or Tuesday depending on which model you trust. As you can see below the GFS has the system coming in on Monday night and the European has it coming in on Tuesday afternoon and evening. So non the less we will more than likely see some type of severe weather on Monday night or Tuesday. I will post more on the parameters of this system as the weekend comes and we get a better handle on it so stay tuned.
GFS valid Monday Night

Euro valid Tuesday 7pm

JUST MY OPINION ON THIS WHOLE THING!!!!!!!

OK THIS IS GOING TO BE ALL IN CAPS BECAUSE IT MAKES ME WANT TO SCREAM. ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE NWS OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM RECEIVED A REPORT OF A LARGE WEDGE TORNADO ON THE GROUND. HERE IS THE WORDING ON IT FROM THE NWS:Dangerous Tornado Approaching Birmingham AT 848 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CARDIFF…OR 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GARDENDALE…MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
THIS WAS A FALSE REPORT (1 FOR THE DAY) AND WHOM EVER CALLED THIS REPORT IN USED THE NAME OF A GOOD FRIEND OF MINE AS WELL AS AN OUTSTANDING STORM CHASER AND SPOTTER BRETT ADAIR. BRETT HAS BEEN CHASING LONG ENOUGH THAT HE KNOWS WHEN TO CALL IN AND WHAT TO CALL IN. I AM APPALLED AT THE PERSON THAT CALLED THIS IN FOR MULTIPLE REASONS.
1) YOU CALLED IN A LARGE TORNADO ON THE GROUND AND THE NWS OFFICES TAKE A REPORT LIKE THIS SERIOUSLY ESPECIALLY SINCE THE STORM WAS BEARING DOWN ON A MAJOR METRO CITY LIKE BIRMINGHAM.
YOU HAVE MADE A MOCKERY OUT OF SPOTTERS REPORTING STORMS AND DAMAGE. WITHOUT SPOTTERS ON THE GROUND REPORTING THE TRUTH THE NWS OFFICES THEN KNOW HOW TO PROPERLY WARN THE CITIZENS OF ANY CITY. IF MORE PEOPLE LIKE YOU (THE PERSON THAT CALLED IN THE FALSE REPORT) THE NWS AND THE PEOPLE OF ANY CITY THAT YOU ARE TRYING TO REPORT FOR WILL NOT TAKE YOU SERIOUS. YOU MAY ACTUALLY HAVE A TORNADO ONE DAY AND TRY TO REPORT IT AND NO ONE WILL BELIEVE YOU.
2) YOU HAVE DESTROYED THE REPUTATION OF BRETT ADAIR RIGHT NOW. HIS NAME HAS BEEN DRUG THRU THE MUD WITH THIS AND IT IS NOT HIS FAULT. YOU WILL BE FOUND OUT AND ONCE YOU ARE YOU WILL BE DEALT WITH IN AN ACCORDINGLY MANNER.
3)NOW TO ALL THE MEDIA THAT HAS TRASHED HIM AS WELL YOU NEED TO GROW UP AND STOP ACTING LIKE YOU ARE BACK IN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AND BLAMING SOMEONE FOR STEALING YOUR MILK BECAUSE JOBOB SAID THAT OLE WHATS HIS NAME TOOK IT WITH OUT GOING TO THE SOURSE OR THE ACCUSED. ONCE THIS IS ALL RESOLVED I HOPE THAT EACH ONE OF YOU (YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE AND WHAT STATION YOU ARE AFFILIATED WITH) HAVE THE TESTICULAR FORTITUDE TO MAN UP AND HAVE BRET ON TV AND SHAKE HIS HAND AND SAY I AM SORRY. HECK EVEN THAT WILL NOT HEAL THE EMOTIONAL SCARS HE HAS NOW ENDURED. BRETT LIKE MYSELF SELL VIDEO OF MOTHER NATURES WORST STORMS AND WITH YOU (MEDIA GUYS) DRAGGING HIS NAME THRU THE MUD HE CANNOT SELL A GLASS OF COLD WATER TO SOMEONE THAT JUST ATE A JAR OF JALAPENOS. THE TRUTH WILL COME OUT AND WHEN IT DOES MAN UP. BRETT BUDDY I HAVE YOUR BACK ON THIS ONE.

Saturday Severe Weather Is Looking More And More Likely!!!

Well here we go our FIRST REAL outbreak is building in for Saturday Afternoon across North Alabama.The SPC has most all of North and Central Alabama in a standard SLIGHT risk on Saturday, and if you will notice they also have it at 30% hatched so what does that mean. That means you can expect an upgrade to at least a MODERATE risk sometime during the early morning hours tomorrow for tomorrow afternoon. As you can see from the 10am RPM model it looks like the warm front should be near U.S. 278 in Cullman County, and most of the rain looks to be along and north of that front. The greater tornado threat in Alabama looks like it would be over the Tennessee Valley close to that surface front where the surface winds will be more backed around to the southeast, but as you can see from the model outputs below some of the parameters are very significant all the way down to Birmingham even though most of the forecast soundings really show a unidirectional type flow for the I-20 corridor. These parameters look to really max out around midnight, so it looks like it is going to be a long night so stay tuned and keep your NOAA weather radio close by.





Outlook for Saturday afternoon and evening

Probabilities for severe wx on Saturday afternoon and evening

RPM valid 10 am Saturday

RM valid 3pm Saturday

STP Saturday over night Saturday

1km SRH valid over night Saturday

RPM Cape Values 7pm Saturday


Harris SB Cape Values 7pm Saturday

Saturday Severe Weather Update!!!!!!

Well it is looking more and more likely that a potential severe weather outbreak could unfold late Saturday afternoon and evening. Below are a few model outputs for Saturday night. The SB Cape RPM model is pushing 2000 j/kg, and the 1k SRH is very impressive as well. STP values(significant tornado parameter)from the NAM are over 7 units, which is extremely significant. Most times in Alabama we see STP values near 1-3 units which is also significant in its own right. So the slight risk the SPC has us under could very well be upgraded later to at least a moderate risk (which is my thinking not official yet). If we see some sunshine early Saturday, we might reach close to 80F in spots Saturday afternoon, adding to the instability and to what could be a problem.And all models have now trended to a dry Monday, yesterday it looked wet and stormy now dry. Stay tuned for updates and chase information. Remember you can see my stream live by clicking the link on the right of the page or by going to severestudios.com and clicking the live storm chasing tab at the top of the page.





Supercell composite valid 10pm Saturday

STP 10pm Saturday Night

RPM SB Cape valid 7pm Saturday

Severe Chances going Up!!!

Outlook for Saturday

1km SRH Saturday

Few tornado warnings last night but nothing reported across north Alabama. Now we turn to the weekend, A warm front will move northward through Alabama late Friday night into Saturday. We may see the sun for a bit on Saturday, this will warm us well into the mid 70s and the instability will continue to increase. SB CAPE values rise to near 1,500-1,700 j/kg, and Helicity values high enough to support rotating updrafts it looks like thunderstorms will begin to develop in scattered variety, and they will have a chance of being strong to severe. With that said the SPC has now put much of North Alabama in a standard “slight risk” for severe weather Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Big Time Warmth!!!

Well I sure hope everyone has enjoyed the BEAUTIFUL weather we have had over spring break this year. Well all good things must come to an end (I am talking about spring break)while we will mention a small chance of a shower today and tomorrow (less than 20% both days) the temps will stay rather warm in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid to upper 50s through next Wednesday.We will need to watch out for a CAD (cold air damming) effect Sunday for our far eastern counties. This does not mean we will see brutally cold temps just while we may have 81F in the Shoals areas like Mentone and Fort Payne could just see upper 60s. I do not really see it happening but it is possible. Our next real chance of rain comes next Thursday as a strong system comes through Wednesday night and highs towards the end of next week will be in the low to mid 60s.

Tonight: As most of you know we have an astronomical phenomenon known as a supermoon that will show itself right after sunset as the moon begins to rise. At this time it looks as we here across North Alabama may be left out of the viewing because clouds will be on the increase all day. Right now we are at about 70% of NONE VISIBILITY for this tonight.

Long Range: It looks like no major severe weather threats for North Alabama or Southern Tennessee until the around the last day of March. So could we go out like a lamb or lion, only time will tell. The NAO takes a big dip into the negative right behind the powerful system that is on the boards for the 30th and 31st days of March. So does this mean we will see another big time freeze? It is very possible just how severe is still on the table for debate.

Until then enjoy the weather and your weekend, as we will start putting these updates out every morning and even more frequently as severe weather approaches.

Wet and Wild Wednesday

Radar capture at the time the tornado was reported on the ground (pretty cool)

Damage in Food World in Theodore Al

More from Food World in Theodore


Well as we had to deal with flooding rains across North Alabama 2.70" at my home in Madison, our neighbors along the coast had the Severe weather I mentioned on facebook yesterday when I was afraid Gulf Coast Convection would limit our storm development. The NWS in Mobile is out surveying damage from tornadoes that raked across South Alabama early this morning. The pictures below are from Theodore Alabama at a Food World Taken by Jim Loznicka AKA @jimwxgator on twitter and the Radar Image is from GR2 Analyst at the time the tornado was reported on the ground in Theodore. More to come once all surveys are complete.

More Severe Wx On The Way!!!

Well here we go again more severe weather on the way to the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday. The RPM model is slower, suggesting the storms will impact the state mainly in the 6:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.( in an earlier facebook post it was around the 10am time frame for the squall line to be impacting areas of North Alabama). While it still looks as if this is going to be another QLCS event we can still get a spin up tornado or two along the line somewhere. The SRH is high enough to support a rotating updraft if they form and the NAM and GFS is showing a little SB Cape between 650-800j/kg Wednesday afternoon. With the system slowing down the atmosphere will have a little more time to become unstable so we will watch it closely. Right now the STP is between 1-3 units for our area on Wednesday so we are not expecting a tornado outbreak.We may see some more big time rains with this system as you can see from the QPF and the RPM charts below. We just had some areas recieve 2-3" with the last system and we could see that again with this one as well. Some creeks and river are at or just below flood stage right now so another 2-3"rain event could have some major flooding issues in parts of the Valley. Make sure to have a good source of weather information over the next couple days.




QPF valid thru Thursday

RPM rainfall estimates thru Thursday

RPM valid 2pm Wednesday

1km SRH 12z Wednesday

ML CAPE Noon Wednesday

SB CAPE Noon Wednesday