Irene update!!!!!

Well Hurricane Irene now has sustained winds of 100 mph, and will be tearing through the Bahamas as a CAT 3 hurricane or stronger over the next 48 hours.

Most model guidance continues to shift a little to the east, and the highest landfall probabilities look to remain over the North Carolina coast Saturday afternoon or Saturday night so I am sticking with my initial landfall target of Bald Head Island NC. It looks as if Hurricane Irene will be a major hurricane at the time of landfall,if you notice one of the plots below even have it as CAT 5.

There is a chance that Irene will remain just offshore, and with the continuing model trends to the east it could happen, but that is up for debate based on who you talk to at this point.Being 5 days out trying to forecast a land falling system is tough and that is why the NHC has such a large cone in their tracking maps.
The GFS shows Irene (bottom image) heading right up the East coast towards some major cities on Sunday night into Monday… Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston could be impacted in a major way by then. So if you know someone along the east coast please keep an eye on the local weather info and stay tuned here for updates at least 1 per day until landfall is imminent

IRENE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well as has been the case each run over the past few days the 12Z models have once again shifted east. So it now looks like a less chance of impact over Florida and increases the risk to the coasts of North and South Carolina. Although with each model run she keeps moving east and might not be a land falling system at all, and could be a coast hugging nuisance causing a major headache for everyone up the east coast. Notice the spaghetti plot/strength models below you see her as a possible Cat4 near South Carolina. So areas from Savannah, Ga to Beaufort North Carolina need to pay close attention to any and all information with this system. If I had to make a guess to where I believe it will make landfall based on today's models I would pick Bald Head Island NC. So stay tuned for updates to see if my landfall point proves correct.


Storm surge forecast for the Bahamas

1 track model

Spaghetti plot

Wind speed probabilities

Strength possibilities

Strength possibilities Carolina Coast

Clear Skies Equal Crisp Morning!!!!!!

As most weather geeks have been talking about the past few days we woke up this morning to drier air and to some of the coolest temperatures in some time. I had a reading of 60F at my home in Madison and got a 59F reading in Huntsville. Most areas across North Alabama saw low 60s with some sheltered valleys in the upper 50s. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the 80s, but will be short lived as summer and slim rain chances return by the end of the week. Most areas will remain dry but we will mention an outside chance of a shower as moisture levels begin to rise, all in all a very slow and benign pattern. A quick look at the tropics.



Gert is a strong tropical storm with winds at 60mph and is passing just east of the island of Bermuda and will continue to turn out into the Atlantic. While we have seen many tropical waves in the last few weeks and 6 named storms it looks as if the tropical train will keep its right hand blinker on and keep turning them out into the Atlantic, with no models showing a tropical system threatening the U.S. coast anytime soon.

Indiana State Fair Stage Collapse

A massive gust of wind brought down a stage at the Indiana State Fair on Saturday night, killing at least 5 and injuring 24, officials said.

UPDATE!!!!!!

A fifth person died overnight at a Indianapolis hospital after a stage collapsed Saturday night at the Indiana State Fair just before the band Sugarland was to have performed.

Winds estimated at 60 to 70 miles per hour caused the stage to collapse as a crowd waited for the performance.

About four-dozen people were injured.

Authorities Sunday identified the victims as old Alina Bigjohny, 23, of Fort Wayne; Christina Santiago, 29, of Chicago; Tammy Vandam, 42, of Wanatah, Ind.; and two Indianapolis residents: Glenn Goodrich, 49, and Nathan Byrd, 51.

Byrd died overnight.

All events at the fair Sunday were canceled.

Sugarland canceled a show Sunday at the Iowa State Fair.

The lead singer issued a statement saying the band is "stunned and heartbroken for the fans and their families in Indiana."

Rain chances on the way up, Emily out to sea??

Well after the last few days with the heaters left running we could get a small reprieve from it all. The massive heat bubble retreats somewhat opening the door for a few shortwave to push close enough to us for a chance of showers and storms. It also is looking like no model wants to agree on the track of Emily while most have her turning out into the Atlantic some of the latest computer model guidance has once again shown a shift more to the west. Emily seems to have stayed on a more westward track than forecasts have shown, So it is really hard to tell. Below is a few model charts and images and as you can see Emily is so disorganized it is hard to even want to call it a tropical system. Take a look at Eugene the CAT 3 monster in the Eastern Pacific man what a storm. We will watch Emily close to see how she acts over the next couple days and hopefully we will get a little rain in the next few days as the HPC shows us getting a little so cross your fingers.

Thursday Forecast Chart

18z Sunday

HPC 5 day rainfall forecast

Current Spaghetti Plots for Emily

Emily Track Possibilities

Emily Sat Image

Emily Infrared

Eugene Infrared

Eugene Sat Image