Wet Weather On The Increase.

Well after a few dry comfortable days that will all change by the end of the week. As I type this a very light rain continues to fall across portions of North Alabama, but this is just a precursor to whats to come. The next two days will be warm and humid, and the sky will be cloudy at times, so we will have the chance of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Highs will be in the 80s, and most communities around here should see 1 to 2 inches of rain by Thursday night (The HPC model below is thru Saturday). We are not expecting any organized severe weather although thunder and lightning is not out of the question at times.

Then cooler and drier air will blow into Alabama Friday with returning sunshine and highs in the 70s across the central counties of the state. But, do not be surprised at all in portions of North Alabama if we get some low clouds our temps does not get out of the 60s with a deep upper low north of Alabama,

The weekend looks to be dry and pleasant, with partly to mostly sunny days and fair, cool nights. Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s, and close to 80 Sunday. Most likely the coolest morning will come early Saturday when some upper 40s are possible across the colder valleys of North Alabama.

Threes A Crowd...

Well I guess you can say the tropics are as active as they can be with 3 named storms ongoing at one time. Katia, Maria, and Nate all churning at the same time, and while Katia and Maria pose no threat to the US Coast we will need to watch Nate closely. Again no models are agreeing on the track of Nate as you can see. The NHC official track takes him into Mexico as a hurricane, but to far south to help the major drought stricken areas of Texas and they need the help badly. Some other models have Nate almost stationary then moves either into the Northern Gulf or into Mexico. Over the last few days the ECMWF had Nate coming into the Biloxi Ms/ Mobile Bay area, but now it is also on board with the GFS and goes into Mexico. We do note the latest 12z Canadian moves Nate rapidly to the Gulf Coast near Mobile Bay late in the weekend with more wind and rain for Alabama Sunday night and Monday. This model is rarely persistent or correct and is the usual outlier and hardly trusted. So stay tuned for the latest on this and all other breaking weather information.

Nate Intensity Map

Spaghetti plots

NHC Official Track

Spaghetti Plots

Broad Atlantic Look

Lee Update!!!

Latest spaghetti plots for LEE

Current radar

Precipitation estimates for LEE valid through Tuesday

Current Tornado watch box


We can expect rainfall amounts of 10-15 inches with some local 20+ inch amounts will fall across SE Louisiana, southern Mississippi and Alabama. 4-8 inches can be expected across the Florida Panhandle. Flash flood watches and warnings are in effect.

Although just a tropical storm look for a storm surge of 3-5 feet along the Louisiana coast and 2-4 feet along the Alabama/Mississippi coast.

A tropical storm warning is in effect from the Alabama/Florida border westward to Sabine Pass TX. A tropical storm watch is in effect eastward to Destin.

A tornado watch is in effect for southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi/Alabama and the far western Florida Panhandle.

Late Sunday night into Monday appears likely to be our wettest days, and it would not surprise me any if we saw temperatures staying in the 70s to low 80s.

Remember to that with any land falling system even weak ones such as LEE we could see a low tornado threat. These types of systems can spin up a weak tornado with little to no warning at all. THIS WILL NOT BE A TORNADO OUTBREAK, but a spin up or two will be possible.

Lee or Maria?????????????

GFS Midday Tuesday

Euro midday Tuesday

Canadian midday Monday

HPC for next 5 days

RPM valid for 3pm Sunday

Spaghetti plot

Intensity forecast for invest 93


We are looking like we could see a beneficial and significant rain event come Sunday into Monday as tropical moisture from the system (LEE or MARIA) in the Gulf. After days of model madness the GFS, Euro, and the Canadian models are starting to get into agreement (12z run) for rain and a few thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday,and Tuesday with potential for heavy rain at times.

We could still see some rain linger into Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday, as the Remnants of the tropical circulation creeps through Alabama very slowly. It is very possible that parts of North/Central Alabama could see two to five inches of rain Sunday through Wednesday with flooding not out of the question. I know no one wants to hear the thought of flooding but we have not seen any measurable rainfall in over 2 weeks so we will have to take the good and bad together. Also another thing to mention is the chance of spin up tornadoes with land falling tropical systems. I AM NOT SAYING WE WILL HAVE A TORNADO OUTBREAK, but you can get spin ups during land falling systems.

Our biggest threat will will come from heavy rain and the flooding potential here in North and Central Alabama as well as flooding and Rip Currents along the coastal areas Panama City Beach has already closed all public beaches. Stay tuned to this developing weather situation as I will be updating on our facebook page all weekend.