SNOW?????????????????

Still to early to be sure but if these model runs are correct we could be in for a decent surprise from tomorrow night into Tuesday Morning across North Ala, Southern Tenn, and North Miss. There have been some ULLs that have dropped big snow amounts in the past. It looks as if we have any snow issues it will all be north of I-20 and mostly on grassy areas. We are not expecting any types of travel conditions as the ground temps are way to warm, but these ULLs can drop snowfall at a very fast rate (2-4" per hour) so for you to see 2" on grass it would almost be like 4-6" if the ground was cold enough to support it all. These ULLs always bring surprises so expect the unexpected with this one as well

09Z RPM


00z NAM

00Z GFS

06Z NAM

Wet End To Our Weekend

Well it is shaping up to be a beautiful Friday as we all either shop for those deals or get ready for some college football. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 60s so enjoy it because it is about to fall apart. Our next weather maker is out to our west affecting portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, and New Mexico today. This area of disturbed weather will impact us as early as 3-4pm Saturday afternoon in North Alabama, and will bring 1-2" of rain with it. This system has decent dynamics but with no surface based instability any thunderstorm that develops will be elevated so severe weather is not anticipated, but some lightning and a few rumbles of thunder is possible. The Low Track model below shows a Low Developing right over Alabama Monday and moving NE. This is based on the ECMWF as the GFS keeps it sunny around here with a slight warm up. The ECMWF has it cool with highs in the 40s and rain and the HPC also is in agreement with the ECMWF with a 3 inch bulls eye just north of the Tenn/Ala line near Fayettville valid Tomorrow through 12z Monday. This time of year the ECMWF is the one model that stays consistent I use it mainly during our winter seasons (remember all the winter events last winter).


Next System


HPC totals valid through 12z Monday

Low Tracks Through Monday

Tuesday Trouble then Saturday????

EHI Midnight Tuesday

NAM SB Cape Midnight Tuesday

500mb Vortmax Saturday 7am

Warm is the word. It is very very warm for the end of November as most areas will be between 73-78 degrees across the state and some areas might even see 80F if the sun comes out. The SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for areas to our west including Texas, South Oklahoma, and SW Arkansas.

A strong upper trough and surface front approaches and showers and storms will increase tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, and much of Alabama is in a slight risk for that reason. The main window for severe weather in Alabama now looks as if it will come from about 3:00 p.m. tomorrow until 3:00 a.m. Wednesday. A tornado threat does not seem overly high with somewhat marginal SRH values ,but a few isolated tornadoes are certainly possible as SRH values will certainly be high enough to support rotating updrafts during the late afternoon and evening hours with any discreet cells that form ahead of the squall line over North and Central Alabama. The main severe weather threat looks to come from damaging winds with bowing segments along the line tomorrow night as it moves through. This looks like the setup last Wednesday when the few tornadoes did hit a few areas of the state, but unlike then when it was just Central and Southern Alabama being effected this one will affect the whole area. The system moves out and Thanksgiving looks great as well as Black Friday, but then comes Saturday. The system on Saturday looks stronger and more robust than the one on Tuesday right now so we will have to watch it close.

Severe Setup For Tuesday

As most of you have noticed from other forms of social media today Tuesday is shaping up to be a very severe stormy type of day. I could go into a lot of detail but this is from Bill Murry of ABC 3340 in Birmingham and he says enough.

Tuesday seems to be shaping up as a potential severe weather day for Alabama as a strong upper trough and surface low impact the region.

By Tuesday morning, the surface low will be in Central Illinois with a trailing cold front west of the Mississippi River. Showers and storms will be spreading across Mississippi and will reach western Alabama during the afternoon.

Temperatures will be in the 70s ahead of the front, with dewpoints in the middle 60s. Instabilities will be between 750-1,000 j/kg. There will be a decent low level jet at 5,000 feet and bulk wind shear will be sufficient for sustained updrafts. There will also be divergence at the Jetstream level, which is another factor for severe storm development.

So, several ingredients will be in place for a significant severe weather outbreak across Alabama Tuesday afternoon and evening, including the potential for supercell thunderstorms.

The threat will mainly affect areas west of I-65 between noon and 6 p.m., shifting eastward as the afternoon and evening progress. It is a situation that will have to be monitored closely.

Needless to say, all Alabamians should carefully monitor this developing weather situation.

STACK THE ODDS IN YOUR FAVOR:

1. Have a method for receiving tornado warnings, whether it is NOAA Weatheradio, an app, social media, email or the television. In fact, have more than one method, because as April 27th proved, systems fail at critical moments.

2. Know what to do when severe weather threatens. Underground, under something sturdy is the best rule. But know what you will do when that moment comes and a tornado warning is issued for you. Here is a complete list of safety suggestions, broken down into actions during severe weather threat days and during tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood watches and warnings. Please use it to help formulate your family’s personal severe weather plan.

IF you have a warnings source and know what to do to get to a place of absolute safety, you are nearly 100% certain to be uninjured by a tornado. Stack the odds in your favor…it’s easy to do.

HAVING SAID ALL THIS…THIS EVENT IS NOT APRIL 27th
The April 27th tornado outbreak hopefully is a once in a lifetime event, but it doesn’t take a historic outbreak to produce tornadoes and severe thunderstorms that can injure and kill people. We need to treat all potential severe weather events as life threatening. This means knowing your plan and executing it when warnings are issued. Then you don’t have to worry!

Tuesday outlook

Tuesday probability

NAM 1km SRH 1pm

GFS SB Cape 7pm

NAM Sb Cape 7pm

4pm SuperCell Composite

4pm Sig Severe

4pm Sig Hail

7pm STP

4pm STP

Coldest Temps So Far This Year

Below are some local reports from the cold this morning. These are by far the coldest temps since last winter. Could this be a precursor to our winter this season only time will tell.

19 Broomtown/Cherokee County

21 Russellville Airport

22 Haleyville, Black Creek

23 Hanceville, Addison, Valley Head, Meridianville, Vigo

24 Oak Grove, Pinson, Scottsboro, Kimberly

25 Rockford, Camp Hill, Decatur, Gadsden, McCalla

26 Crossville, Centreville, Dora, Coker, Fayette, Muscle Shoals

27 Fort Payne, Huntsville

28 Boaz, Alexander City, Cullman Airport

29 Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Troy, Bessemer, Gardendale

30 Albertville, Hytop

Wednesday Tornado Confirmations So Far

ALABAMA
...TORNADO 1...
...SUMTER COUNTY TORNADO...

EVENT DATE: NOVEMBER 16, 2011
EVENT TYPE: EF-2 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 120
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 1 INJURY
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 32.3633/-88.0894 AT 707 AM
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 32.3763/-88.0689 AT 709 AM
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 1.50
DAMAGE WIDTH (IN YARDS): 600 YARDS

AN EF-2 TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN IN WHITFIELD AND MOVED
NORTHEAST...AND LIFTED NORTH OF COUNTY ROAD 42. ALONG ITS SHORT
PATH...APPROXIMATELY 150 SOFTWOOD TREES WERE SNAPPED...50 HARDWOOD
TREES WERE UPROOTED...AND FIVE OUTBUILDINGS WERE DAMAGED. SIX HOMES
AND ONE DOUBLE WIDE MOBILE HOME WERE DAMAGED. ONE HOME WAS DESTROYED
ALONG COUNTY ROAD 42 WHERE ONE INJURY OCCURRED.

...TORNADO 2...
...MARENGO COUNTY TORNADO...

EVENT DATE: NOVEMBER 16, 2011
EVENT TYPE: EF-0 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 85
INJURIES/FATALITIES: NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 32.4813/-87.8567 AT 732 AM
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 32.5032/-87.8174 AT 736 AM
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 2.57
DAMAGE WIDTH (IN YARDS): 250 YARDS

AN EF-0 TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN IN DEMOPOLIS ALONG MARIA AVE
AND MOVED NORTHEAST WHERE IT CROSSED JEFFERSON RD. IT LIFTED ALONG
US HIGHWAY 80...EAST OF US HIGHWAY 43. APPROXIMATELY 20 HOMES IN THE
EDGEWOOD SUBDIVISION SUSTAINED MINOR ROOF DAMAGE. SEVERAL BUSINESS
SIGNS ALONG US HIGHWAY 80 WERE BLOWN DOWN. THE CENTRAL FARMERS COOP
SUSTAINED SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AS A PORTION OF ITS ROOF WAS
REMOVED.

MISSISSIPPI

MARION/JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY TORNADO:
BEGINNING POINT: 8 N COLUMBIA AT 411 AM
ENDING POINT: 3 SE BASSFIELD AT 425 AM
RATING: EF-1, MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WINDS 100 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 11 MILES MAXIMUM WIDTH 0.25 MILES

SUMMARY OF DAMAGE: THE TORNADO STARTED IN MARION COUNTY ON GOSS
BUNKER HILL ROAD WITH MOSTLY MINOR TREE DAMAGE. AS IT MOVED
NORTHEAST, CROSSING STUCKEY ROAD, MORE MINOR TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED
ALONG WITH HOME TV AND RADIO ANTENNAS BEING BLOWN DOWN. AS IT MOVED
ALONG E. RESERVOIR ROAD, MORE SUBSTANTIAL TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED ALONG
WITH ROOF DAMAGE TO A FEW HOMES AND MOBILE HOMES. AS IT CONTINUED
NORTHEAST, MORE MAJOR TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED ALONG WITH SNAPPED POWER
POLES ON BUFKIN AND GRICE ROADS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE
OCCURRED ALONG BUNKER HILL ROAD WHERE HOME WITH ROOF DAMAGE OCCURRED
ALONG WITH MANY TREES UPROOTED AND SNAPPED. SEVERAL METAL SHEDS WERE
EITHER SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. A CATTLE TRAILER WAS PICKED UP
AND THROWN APPROXIMATELY 200 YARDS. AS IT CROSSED HWY 35, MAJOR TREE
DAMAGE CONTINUED WHERE PINES AND HARDWOOD WERE EITHER SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED. A CARPORT WAS COLLAPSED AT A RESIDENCE NEAR BRYANT ROAD.
THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST CROSSING ROBBINS AND F. MCNEESE ROAD
WHERE MAINLY TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED. AS THE TORNADO CROSSED S.
WILLIAMSBURG ROAD, THE ROOF OF A NEWLY BUILT BAR WAS TORN OFF ALONG
WITH MAJOR TREE DAMAGE. AS IT CONTINUED NORTHEAST FROM THERE, MOSTLY
TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED UNTIL IT ENDED NEAR GATES ROAD, JUST SOUTH OF
HWY 42 IN JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY.


JONES COUNTY TORNADO:
BEGINNING POINT: 4 SE HEBRON AT 503 AM
ENDING POINT: 4.5 ESE HEBRON AT 507 AM
RATING: EF-1, MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WINDS 95 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 2 MILES MAXIMUM WIDTH: 50 YARDS

SUMMARY OF DAMAGE: THIS TORNADO DEVELOPED AND DOWNED SEVERAL TREES
ALONG FRED ELLZEY ROAD, AND CAUSED MODERATE DAMAGE TO THE ROOF OF A
LARGE HOME NORTH OF THE ROAD. THE TORNADO MOVED NORTHEAST, SNAPPING
SEVERAL TREES AND HEAVILY DAMAGING AN OUTBUILDING AS IT CROSSED WEST
CREEK ROAD. THE TORNADO THEN SNAPPED A FEW TREES AND DAMAGED THE ROOF
OF AN OUTBUILDING JUST BEFORE CROSSING HIGHWAY 84, SHORTLY AFTER
WHICH IT DISSIPATED.


JONES/JASPER COUNTY TORNADO
BEGINNING POINT: 7 W LAUREL AT 512 AM
ENDING POINT: 2.5 N SHARON AT 530 AM
RATING: EF-2, MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WINDS 130 MPH
INJURIES: 15
PATH LENGTH: 12 MILES MAXIMUM WIDTH: 300 YARDS

SUMMARY OF DAMAGE:
THE TORNADO DEVELOPED ALONG PAT HOLLIMAN AND LEROY HILL ROADS,
DOWNING A FEW TREES. THE TORNADO MOVED NORTHEAST, WIDENED AND REACHED
ITS MAXIMUM WIDTH IN THE AREA OF SPRINGHILL ROAD, WHERE HIGH END EF-1
DAMAGE TO TREES OCCURRED. THE TORNADO THEN NARROWED TO ABOUT 150 TO
250 YARD WIDE PATH OF MID TO HIGH END EF-2 DAMAGE ON EITHER SIDE OF
STATE HIGHWAY 15 IN THE SHADY GROVE COMMUNITY NORTHWEST OF LAUREL.
SEVERAL MOBILE HOMES WERE COMPLETELY DESTROYED, NUMEROUS POWER POLES
WERE SNAPPED, SEVERAL FRAME AND BRICK HOMES SUFFERED MAJOR DAMAGE AND
OTHER MODERATE DAMAGE, AND EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED. A FEW
COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 15 SUFFERED MAJOR DAMAGE. AS
THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST JONES COUNTY, IT
CAUSED EF-1 TYPE DAMAGE AS IT CROSSED SHARON-MOSS AND LAKE COMO
ROADS, SNAPPING AND UPROOTING TREES AND CAUSING SOME ROOF AND MINOR
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO SEVERAL HOMES. THE TORNADO THEN INTENSIFIED
SOMEWHAT AGAIN AS IT CROSSED INTO JASPER COUNTY, DESTROYING THREE
LARGE CHICKEN HOUSES AND CAUSING EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE ALONG COUNTY
ROAD 812 JUST INSIDE THE JASPER COUNTY LINE. THE TORNADO DISSIPATED
SHORTLY AFTER CAUSING THIS DAMAGE. SO FAR, 15 PEOPLE WERE INJURED BY
THIS TORNADO, WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE INJURIES BEING RELATIVELY MINOR.

Fall Chasin in the Ark/La/Tex

Still waiting on some more information on the dynamics of the system. Tomorrow looks to be a big day out in portions of Texas and Oklahoma as some tornadoes are possible. As the system moves eastward we could see some severe weather including tornadoes in portions of Arkansas, Missouri, and Louisiana on Tuesday afternoon. While the system will not be as dynamic then as it will be out in the plains severe thunderstorms is a given. Below is the latest SPC outlook and probabilities for Tuesday as well as the STP (significant tornado parameter) for 4pm Tuesday and the Significant Severe threat for the same time. The STP is at 2 units which for a fall setup is pretty high. Stay tuned for chase details
Day 3 Probabilities

Day 3 outlook

Sig Svr

STP

Severe Weather Possible Next Week???????

The weather pattern next week will favor building warmth over much of the eastern half of the nation with a flow of humid air developing off the Gulf of Mexico over the South Central states.

Meanwhile, a potent storm system is forecast to travel from Texas to the Great Lakes during the middle of the week.

If the currently growing dip in the jet stream in the West were to lunge toward the Mississippi Valley as it is forecast to do, around the same time, we could be looking at damaging thunderstorms including tornadoes in part of an area hit hard by violent weather during the spring, including us here in North Alabama.

It is too early to give much detail on the situation, as it is still a week away. However, it appears the size of the threat area for severe thunderstorms at this time would be rather large and stretch from central Texas to south-central Kansas, eastward to the Florida Panhandle to the Ohio Valley. Are we saying we will have a repeat of the April tornado onslaught, NO. What we are saying is that models are in agreement RIGHT NOW that severe weather is possible in the same areas affected then. So stay tuned for future updates.

Our Secondary Tornado Season Is Upon Us

I just wanted to remind everyone that on November 1st we began our secondary tornado season here in Alabama. Our Fall season has been very active over the last 10 years or so. We may not see the large long track super tornadoes (EF3 or greater) as often as we typically do in the spring season but they do happen and some very memorable outbreak and large tornadoes in our secondary (fall/winter)season are. First we look back at the November 10th 2002 outbreak in Central Alabama. This hit close to home for me in more than one way. Not only was I chasing that day but 2 EF3s hit in my county and 1 in my community. They were part of 11 tornadoes that day that killed 12 people and injured 100. These tornadoes hit after dark with the first just before 8pm and the last just before midnight. Another memorable fall tornado was the November 15 1989 F4 that tore through the Huntsville area killing 21 and injuring 463. This tornado hit right at rush hour as everyone was heading home. Other significant tornadoes not associated with the SPRING season was the Super Tuesday outbreak of 2008 that saw two EF4s tear across North Alabama in the early morning hours begining at 3am and the other at 5:17am killing 5 and injuring 35 in Lawrence, Morgan and Jackson Counties. Two other tornadoes that morning hit Marshall and Cullman Counties. FYI stronger tornadoes hit across Tennessee killing and injuring more as well. One of the hardest hit area in Tennessee as Union University in Jackson. Also in 2008 we had the Christmas Eve tornado in Limestone county. One other fall/winter tornado of some importance to us in North Alabama was the January 21st 2010 EF2 that hit the Huntsville area. So as you can see the fall and winter months also produce some strong tornaodes. All it takes is a day or two of 70 plus degree temps and then a strong cold front to push in and the stage is set. So stay tuned to your local weather info or follow me on Twitter @Ala_StormChaser and on facebook at Tennessee Valley Storm Trackers.