Stormy Night Ahead

Slight

Wind

Tor risk

Hail


I will make this a s simple to understand as I can. The SPC has placed us under a slight risk for severe weather. Now most of us seem to think the SPC is over thinking just a bit as far as severe weather. Yes the instability is slowly increasing, the SRH is high enough to maintain rotating updrafts,and the STP is still fairly high, but I do not agree with a 5% tornado risk. Our main threat is going to come from 2-4" of rainfall on top of the still flooded areas across North Alabama. Another concern will be if we get some gusty winds with some of the stronger storms we may have some trees come down since the ground is so saturated, it will not take much to bring them down.
STP Midnight


HRRR SB Cape Midnight

HRRR 0-3km SRH Midnight

Hail potential

HPC valid though 0z Sunday

Notice the HPC is not showing a major rain over the next 24-48 hours, but we may see 2-4" of rain in some spots and that is why the flood threat is the real threat. Make sure you have a reliable source for weather information overnight. A quick peak at Sunday, I would not be surprised to see some parts of central and north central Alabama reach the upper 60s to near 70 degrees, then a deep, negative tilt upper trough north of Alabama will set the stage for more strong storms Sunday night into Monday morning. It will be similar to the event tonight and tomorrow; marginal instability values, but pretty decent shear.