Thursday severe potential

Big time slight risk has been issued by the SPC for day 3 which is Thursday. with a 30%hatched area covering all of North and Central Alabama. This could change a little for the better (it goes away) or the worse (it is upgraded to a moderate risk). Right now it is still to early to be real specific on it, the NWS office in Huntsville has issued their HWO and are saying that lightning looks to be the main threat on Thursday, but I do not think the SPC would issue such a broad Slight Risk including the large hatched area for lightning. Below are a few model outputs valid at 7pm Thursday and yes the SRH is still very high and the NAM SB Cape is high enough, but the GFS is not so strong so madness rules the roost. The STP is still very high based on the fact the SRH is so high, and the EHI and Supercell parameters are also extremely high Thursday night. At the bottom is the SPC text on the potential for Thursday
Slight Risk Thursday

Thursday Severe Probability

Supercell Parameter

Potential Hail Size

NAM SB Cape 7pm Thursday

0-3km SRH 7pm Thursday

0-3km EHI 7pm Thursday

STP 7pm Thursday

GFS SB CAPE 7pm Thursday

POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST THURSDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

STRENGTHENING SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEWD
TRANSPORT OF MODIFYING GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 60S
OVER SRN AND ERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES TO NEAR 50 OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY. GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE PLUME
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT EWD AND OVERTAKE THE WRN EDGE OF
THE MOIST AXIS. MLCAPE IN THIS REGION COULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500
J/KG. HOWEVER...THE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
MUCH OF THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY EVENING IN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING WAVE AND STRENGTHENING
LLJ. ACTIVITY WILL EXIST WITHIN A STRONG KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AS
LLJ INCREASES TO IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH UPSCALE GROWTH
LIKELY OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD.