Tennessee Valley Storm Trackers

Cold Weekend On Tap

2012-02-10T15:19:00.008-06:00

Well here we go. It looks as if we will be in the deep freeze over the next couple days. Highs both days may not make it out of the 30s and with the winds out of the NW at 15-20mph the wind chill will remain near freezing all day Saturday even with ample sunshine. Both the GFS and the NAM are showing a low of 20 degrees for Huntsville early Sunday; the actual range will be from near 17 in the sheltered, to near 26 on the ridge tops. As you can see from the RPM models below we could very well see flurries off and on all morning in the metro. Also the next 72 hours look to be interesting in other parts of the country. This will be a short lived cold snap as we rebound very quickly next week.The NAO ensembles are trying to go negative by next weekend but not sure just yet. We will watch it for you. Stay tuned for any and all updates on the potential for strong storms by next Thursday.
Temps Noon Saturday

RPM snow potential for next 72 hours

RPM 6am Saturday

RPM Noon Saturday

Temps 6am Sunday

NAO Ensemble

Interesting Weather On The Horizon!!!!!

2012-02-09T06:17:00.002-06:00

Well it looks as if we have mixed bag of weather goodies in the next few days. As you well know from my previous post we will be cold this weekend and the only tweaks I will make is the temps I will forecast 43 on Saturday and 39 on Sunday for Madison.
The GFS is coming in colder with our lows as well so I say we will see low 20s both days, but some valleys could dip into the teens. Now as you can see on the RPM model it is picking up some snow flurries for North Alabama on Saturday morning. Ground temps are way to warm for this to be a problem but it could make a pretty sight to see it fall. Later in the week it is coming together for a stormy setup on Thursday as you can see from the models below. The GFS and European are in pretty much agreement on it. The GFS is hinting at highs in the upper 60s Wednesday, and low 70s Thursday, meaning we could see some decent surface based instability on Thursday. Still a week out so we will watch and tweak daily. So stay tuned each day for updates.
European Model valid 7pm Thursday

GFS Thursday

RPM valid 8am Saturday

Cold Weekend On Tap, Storms Next Week...........

2012-02-08T15:52:00.003-06:00

A brief cold spell is about to engulf the Tennessee Valley and further into Central Alabama. We are not expecting bone chilling cold like we saw last winter but we could very well struggle to rise above 40 on Saturday and mid 40s on Sunday. We should see low 20s on Sunday and Monday morning. So sheltered valleys could very welll dip into the upper teens as well. Our run of dry weather comes to an end early next week as the GFS is hinting at rain Monday through Wednesday with strong to severe storms on Wednesday, although the European holds the storms until Thursday. The Models outputs below are all from the GFS valid noon next Wednesday and it looks as a few storms could be possible with this scenario, but it is still way to early to tell. We should be able to nail it down by the weekend to really know where, when and if we will see thunderstorms next week so stay tuned.
GFS Noon Wednesday the 15th

500mb VortMax Noon Wednesday the 15th

SB cape Noon Wednesday the 15th

Quick Look at Friday

2012-01-31T18:28:00.003-06:00

Things are starting to look like we may see a few severe storms roll through the Ark/La/Tex region and into the areas in Arkansas affected just 2 weeks ago. The below runs are off the 18z and are all valid at 7pm Friday. Although it is not a classic severe weather event like 2 weeks ago these storms could pack a punch. We look to go mobile Friday and head west if it all pans out so stay tuned.
Supercell Composite

STP

Potential Hail

3km EHI

SB Cape

Big Changes Are Coming

2012-01-30T13:14:00.002-06:00

Just a quick note to all of our friends and followers. We will be making an announcement concerning the future of the Tennessee Valley Storm Trackers pretty soon. The changes will be regarding the way we chase, forecast, Etc so stay tuned and enjoy this beautiful weather the next few days.

Tommy Self

Our Next System

2012-01-24T08:18:00.003-06:00

Well after a rough January storm system that brought flooding rains to North Alabama and deadly tornadoes to Central Alabama we will enjoy slightly above average temps and sunny skies before our next rain chance on Thursday. The next system right now does not look to be nearly as strong as the last so we are not expecting any real major severe weather issues in North or Central Alabama Thursday. The SPC has their standard Slight Risk out for the Gulf Coast on Thursday and by looking at the model outputs below I would tend to agree. All models are pretty much agreement as well keeping the bulk of the instability right along the coast and creeping into SW Alabama. The EHI at 2.08 right of the coast as well as the SRH at 734 is very significant. The only limiting factor right now along the coast is the higher cape looks to remain off shore but if the Cape can creep inland just a little bit more we could see some big time storms down there. As for us across North Alabama there will be a little low level instability (less than300 j k/g) up this way, but the higher shear values will be down south thanks to the low latitude nature of the upper trough. Lapse rates are marginal, so any severe weather threat for the northern half of the state at this point looks pretty low. On a colder note the NAO and the AO both begin to trend negative around the first week of February so the question is when the freezer door opens up will this active southern branch of the jet stream will continue to bring us significant moisture. Only time will tell.

Outlook for Thursday

SB Cape 6pm Thursday

3km SRH 6pm Thursday

3km EHI 6pm Thursday

Stormy Night Ahead

2012-01-20T19:40:00.005-06:00

Slight

Wind

Tor risk

Hail

I will make this a s simple to understand as I can. The SPC has placed us under a slight risk for severe weather. Now most of us seem to think the SPC is over thinking just a bit as far as severe weather. Yes the instability is slowly increasing, the SRH is high enough to maintain rotating updrafts,and the STP is still fairly high, but I do not agree with a 5% tornado risk. Our main threat is going to come from 2-4" of rainfall on top of the still flooded areas across North Alabama. Another concern will be if we get some gusty winds with some of the stronger storms we may have some trees come down since the ground is so saturated, it will not take much to bring them down.
STP Midnight

HRRR SB Cape Midnight

HRRR 0-3km SRH Midnight

Hail potential

HPC valid though 0z Sunday

Notice the HPC is not showing a major rain over the next 24-48 hours, but we may see 2-4" of rain in some spots and that is why the flood threat is the real threat. Make sure you have a reliable source for weather information overnight. A quick peak at Sunday, I would not be surprised to see some parts of central and north central Alabama reach the upper 60s to near 70 degrees, then a deep, negative tilt upper trough north of Alabama will set the stage for more strong storms Sunday night into Monday morning. It will be similar to the event tonight and tomorrow; marginal instability values, but pretty decent shear.

Strong Storms On Tuesday??????????

2012-01-16T18:21:00.004-06:00

Well we have talked in passing about tomorrows potential for strong to even severe thunderstorms. While the SB Cape values are between 500-650 jk/g, we do note that the 0-3kn SRH (as seen on the below output)is between 350-400 units, which is high enough to support rotating updrafts if the form. Also one thing that is concerning for this time of year is the STP at 2 units which is significant. We are not expecting a major severe weather outbreak, but a few strong to severe storms are possible. The time frame looks to be from about 12 noon to 6pm for us here in north Alabama. The SPC has just a small 5% outlook for almost the entire state. Our main threats (if any) across north and central Alabama looks to be in the form of small hail, gusty winds, vivid lightning, and the outside chance of an isolated tornado. Stay tuned for any chase details and further updates.

STP Noon Tuesday

Significant Hail Parameter Noon Tuesday

0-3km SRH Noon Tuesday

SPC Outlook For Tuesday

Another Teaser!!!!!!

2012-01-12T16:19:00.004-06:00

As most can tell the snow that is falling will be nothing more than a tease. This is the 3rd wintry tease so far with nothing more than about 1" total between the 3. The one thing that is very noticeable is the very cold temps we will see the next 24-36 hours. As you can see the HRRR and the RPM models I posted earlier on Facebook and twitter were spot on. Light snow showers across the area and that is about it. Remember that winter is just getting started and we will see more chances for some type of wintry precip again. The temps like I said will be the big thing. As you can see at 1am we are in the LOW 20s and by 1pm we might make 40, might. The wind chill will have us down into the low teens over night and in the low 30s to upper 20s on Friday. We warm into the low 50s Saturday, and mid to upper 50s Sunday. Clouds will begin to return Monday, and a few showers could arrive Monday night. The best chance of rain next week will come on Tuesday with a passing cold front; looks like a setup for about one-half inch of rain around here.

HRRR

RPM

1pm Friday

1am Friday

Interesting Weather Ahead!!!!

2012-01-06T08:10:00.002-06:00

I have been asked to try and do a post here at least once a week to let everyone know what they can expect the next week. So I will do that as well as post on breaking weather or severe weather as I always have. Be sure to follow us on Facebook and tell your friends across North Alabama. After a very cold start to the week with both Highs and Lows being very cold, we have warmed up nicely and today with highs in the 60s it is going to be window opening weather. Now the weekend a system will push through and we will a risk of showers across Alabama on both days, but we are not expecting anything very heavy. Just keep keep an umbrella handy just in case. Temps look to stay in the mid to upper 60s to near 70, yes I said 70. Now with temps that warm in January you pretty much expect some thunderstorms in the future and even thought we have a little model madness with the GFS bringing storms in on Wednesday the European (which has been more reliable this time of year)we will still forecast a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night as a strong upper wave coming at us from the west. Now at the moment forecast instability values look very low, but the models could very well be underestimating the low level warmth and buoyancy of the air so we will monitor it closely. I normally will post some model outputs but it is easier just to tell you what to expect right now. I will say the AO is looking to go negative towards mid month but the NAO remains positive but on the weaker side. With the AO starting to go negative it is possible the NAO could soon follow as cold Canadian air starts to move and the GFS shows a nice snow event around the 19th-20th, but this is all speculation and not a forecast. I will post updates on Tuesdays severe potential as needed so until next week stay weather aware and have a great weekend.

2011 A Year To Remember

2011-12-26T18:47:00.011-06:00

This is some accounts of the amazing 2011 weather season across the US. I am sure I have not mentioned all the events but these were the most significant.
To date, the United States set a record with 12 separate billion dollar weather/climate disasters in 2011, with an aggregate damage total of approximately $52 billion. This record year breaks the previous record of nine billion-dollar weather/climate disasters in one year, which occurred in 2008. These twelve disasters alone resulted in the tragic loss of 646 lives, with the National Weather Service reporting over 1,000 deaths across all weather categories for the year. Previously only 10 events were reported; the two new billion-dollar weather and climate events added to the 2011 total include: The Texas, New Mexico, Arizona wildfires event, now exceeding $1 billion, had been previously accounted for in the larger Southern Plains drought and heatwave event. This is in line with how NOAA has traditionally accounted for large wildfire events as separate events. The June 18-22 Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes and Severe Weather event, which just recently exceeded the $1 billion threshold. With that said 2011 will go down as one of the strongest, costliest ($52 billion), and deadliest (over 1000) years for natural disasters this country has ever seen. From the heavy snows and blizzards across the country to begin the year to the tornadoes, floods, and wildfires. Some of the information and images from this posting are from online events others are from persons sending me the information or from my on personal ordeals.

January
In Alabama just 1 week after the first White Christmas where I measured 5” (measurable snowfall) since 1989, we had a rough New Years Eve. Mother Nature decided to have her on party this year (with 40 reported tornadoes). It all began during the predawn hours on Friday when a tornado tore thru Cincinnati Arkansas killing 3 people. This tornado has preliminary rated an EF3 with maximum estimated winds of about 140 mph. This EF rating is primarily based on severe damage to 3 permanent homes and a destroyed metal (volunteer fire department) building system in Cincinnati. This was a long track tornado as it was on the ground for 21 miles and was 500 yds wide at its widest point. Another severe tornado was in the St Louis metro hitting Cedar Hill, St Louis City, and then to Sunset Hills. This tornado was also preliminarily rated EF3 but NWS St Louis may upgrade to at the least EF4. No track length or width is available at this time.

Then later in the night Mother Nature unleashed her fury on the Deep South as tornadoes raged across portions of Central and Southern Mississippi where the NWS WFO in Jackson had to take shelter from a beast of a storm the tore thru the area. With with lots of damage being reported in the area the town of Byram was hit extremely hard and the local police put the whole town on lock down over night due to extensive damage. I went out around 2am when the line was progressing east thru the Valley to try and intercept some hail but it all fizzled out, which is what we predicted. Then on January 9th the Winter storm that everyone has been talking about has come and dumped the third largest total ever in Huntsville. Even though we were seeing snow on radar beginning around 6pm it was not reaching the ground just yet. The air started out a little dry with dew points in the 20s and as the moisture kept on creeping into the area the dew points came up the moisture was here and the snow began to reach the ground. At 8:30pm I saw the first flake in Madison and began taking pictures of my snow plate with a ruler fixed to it. Below are some pictures from that day including my ruler throughout the night with the times the pictures were taken as well as a short video of the Thunder Snow. The wooden ruler is fixed the black one behind it was there to support it until the snow reached a depth that the wooden one supported itself. This will surely not be our last chance for snow this Winter, as we usually see our snows in February and early March.
Thunder snow about 45 seconds in

9:30pm 1 hour after the snow started to fall

6:30am after the snow stopped

This storm would shut most most all of North Alabama schools down for at least 1 week.

February
The month of February was a month that Mother Nature threw us a mixed bag of weather all across the Nation. From severe weather and tornadoes in the south to record snows across the plains and the Midwest. Here are just a few of the events

On February 26th tornadoes tore across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, And Alabama. Hackleburg Alabama

ON THE EVENING OF THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 24TH, A SQUALL LINE PASSED
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA CAUSING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF STRAIGHT LINE
WIND DAMAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. AS PART OF THIS SQUALL LINE, THERE
WAS ONE AREA THAT RECEIVED DAMAGE THAT WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF A
BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN.

IN RESPONSE TO THIS DAMAGE, A SURVEY TEAM OF NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS COMPLETED AN ASSESSMENT OF THE AREA JUST
OUTSIDE OF HACKLEBURG IN MARION COUNTY. THESE ARE THEIR FINDINGS:

...MARION COUNTY TORNADO...

EVENT DATE: FEBRUARY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: EF-0 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 75-80
INJURIES/FATALITIES: NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 34.2858/-87.8578 AT 1018 PM
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 34.2878/-87.8482 AT 1018 PM
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 0.5
DAMAGE WIDTH (IN YARDS): 100

AS PART OF A SQUALL LINE, THE TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE TOWN OF HACKLEBURG. TRAVELING ON THE GROUND
FOR ONLY 1/2 MILE, THE TORNADO DID CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO A NUMBER
OF CHICKEN BARNS AND OUTBUILDINGS IN THE AREA, EXTENSIVELY LIFTING
TIN ROOFS AND OVERHANGS.

WARNINGS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING #009 WAS IN EFFECT FROM 935 PM
UNTIL 1015 PM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING #011 WAS IN EFFECT FROM
1010 PM UNTIL 1100 PM. TORNADO WARNING #004 WAS IN EFFECT FROM
957 PM UNTIL 1030 PM.

Mississippi Delta Region

EF1 and EF2
Tornado #1 West Carroll Parish La
The tornado first touched down near the intersection of highways 585 and 835 in the northwest part of West Carroll Parish. A grain truck was overturned first. Significant damage occurred to the roof of a church and minor damage occurred to the nearby parsonage. Then, the tornado knocked down a very large tree, which fell on a shed and the corner of a house. Two people narrowly escaped harm from this falling tree. As the tornado continued to move east-northeast, it destroyed a small shed, damaged a larger shed, and blew out some windows of a house. A large antenna was also significantly bent over. A travel trailer was turned about 45 degrees into a garage. The next structure the tornado encountered was a double-wide trailer, which had a large part of the roof blown off. Finally, another trailer was turned over in Kilbourne. Numerous trees were snapped and uprooted along the path.
Rating:EF-1
Estimated Maximum Wind:95 mph
Casualties:none
Damage Path Length:6 miles
Maximum Path Width:75 yards

Tornado #2 Grace Mississippi

The tornado started at Grace, where it downed a few large trees and caused minor roof damage to several homes. The tornado continued into Sharkey County, and just after crossing Dry Bend Road it destroyed a metal outbuilding, scattering tin and other debris a mile downstream. Part of the roof of another larger metal building was taken off at the same location, along with a couple of trees snapped. From here the tornado mainly passed through open fields for a couple of miles, although trees could be seen down along some tree lines. As the tornado approached US Highway 61, it turned more east-northeastward and downed more trees and rolled some equipment at a farm shop. As it crossed Highway 61, it snapped or downed at least 6 wooden power poles. It also caused significant shingle damage to a frame home and downed several trees and large limbs. The tornado then moved back into inaccessible farm fields, and is assumed to have dissipated shortly thereafter.
Rating:EF-2
Estimated Maximum Wind:115 mph
Casualties:none
Damage Path Length:6.5 miles
Maximum Path Width:400 yards

And in the Midwest the month opened with a humongous blizzard paralyzing the Midwest of the United States. Chicago reported its third greatest snowfall on record with 20.2” measured at O’Hare Airport on February 1-2. Tulsa, Oklahoma’s 14.0” accumulation was the greatest on record for that city. Record cold temperatures then plunged southward following the storm resulting in Santa Fe, New Mexico tying its all-time coldest temperature with -18°F on February 3 and Ruidoso broke its all-time record low with -27°F (old record -26° in 1951 and 1971). Readings as low as -36°F were reported from other sites in the state (Angle Fire and Eagle Nest).

Laredo, Texas never rose above 30° on February 3 (coldest maximum temperature since a 29°F high on January 30, 1951) and, ironically, the city reached a high of 103° on February 27, tying the hottest February temperature on record for the site and only one degree short of the hottest temperature ever recorded in the USA for any location in the country for February (104° at Fort Ringgold, Texas in February 1904). However, the data from the official airport site in Laredo is suspect according to Laredo-based weatherman Richard Berler. Richard suspects the actual reading was just 101°F accounting for a +2°F bias at the airport site.

Another blizzard pummeled Oklahoma and Arkansas just a week later when an Oklahoma state record for a 24-hour snowfall was reached at Spaville when 27.0” accumulated on February 8-9. The Arkansas state record for such fell shy just 1/2” with 24.5” measured at Siloam Springs. Following the storm, Oklahoma broke its record for the coldest temperature on record for the state when a -31°F reading was measured at Nowata on February 10.

An unprecedented warm up occurred the following week in Oklahoma with temperatures rising into the 80°s. Some locations reported a 100°F+ rise in temperature within the span of 6 days.

Also in Douglas, Ariz., hits 0 degrees Fahrenheit for the third time in history; Laramie's mercury plummets to -39 F. Tens of thousands of people in Arizona and New Mexico are left without natural gas to heat their homes due to cold-caused shortages. South of the border, 35 animals -- including parrots, snakes, a monkey and a crocodile -- freeze to death in a Mexican zoo.

March

March would be what I would say as a precursor for the next month as far as severe weather goes. On e moderate risk after another was put out by the SPC in Norman Oklahoma and as most of them would burst out and be nothing but rain makers one proved different as a tornado tore through the town of Theodore in South Alabama. I was tracking this storm on my laptop using GR2 Analyst and screen grabbed this as the tornado was reported on the ground.

Another phenomenon in March this year came on the 19th when the SUPERMOON would be the closest it has been to earth in 18 years.
My Image of the SUPERMOON
Most people would argue that with the SUPERMOON comes very extreme weather or other catastrophic events such as the last SUPERMOON in 2005 on January 10th right around the time of the 9.0 Indonesia earthquake. The 2011 SUPERMOON comes 8 days since a massive Earthquake and Tsunami hit the island of Japan. And knowing what happened in the US this weather year I am a firm believer that the SUPERMOON discussion is still a BIG topic. As April is next and we all know what happened in April.

April
April would prove very costly in both dollars and lives lost. Following 2 massive tornado outbreaks less than 2 weeks apart. The first began on April 14th in the plains and moved east over the next 2 days. In Alabama a moderate risk of severe weather also existed for April 15 across much of Alabama and Mississippi. During the pre-dawn hours into the morning of April 15, tornadic activity temporarily waned with only isolated activity. However, by late that morning, supercell thunderstorms developed again over parts of Mississippi, and tornadoes began to touch down again. A tornado emergency was declared for the northern Jackson metropolitan area shortly after 11:00 am CDT (1600 UTC), as a result of a widely photographed tornado that moved through parts of the city and the adjoining city of Clinton. The destructive tornado moved across the area producing severe damage and numerous injuries according to WLBT coverage. That afternoon, Mississippi State University spotters confirmed another large tornado in east-central Mississippi and west-central Alabama and the second tornado emergency of the outbreak was issued. ABC 33/40 coverage reported that the tornado was 3/4 mile (1.2 km) in width. Another tornado slammed into Tuscaloosa, Alabama that afternoon rated EF3,Two additional tornado emergencies were also issued that afternoon for other storms in Attala County, Mississippi and Choctaw County, Alabama, and a fifth such issuance occurred near Leakesville, Mississippi that evening. Local storm reports report at least 7 fatalities from the storms on April 15. With 178 confirmed tornadoes 38 deaths and in the 3 day outbreak and hearing talks of the next big event in AFDs, most knew this would be a long month.

On April 25th-28th An extremely large and violent tornado outbreak, the largest tornado outbreak ever recorded, and popularly known as the 2011 Super Outbreak, occurred from April 25 to 28, 2011. The outbreak affected the Southern, Midwestern, and Northeastern United States, leaving catastrophic destruction in its wake, especially across the state of Alabama. It produced destructive tornadoes in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Virginia, and affected many other areas throughout the Southern and Eastern United States. In total, 353 tornadoes were confirmed by the National Weather Service in 21 states from Texas to New York and even isolated tornadoes in Canada. Widespread and destructive tornadoes occurred on each day of the outbreak, with April 27 being among the most prolific and destructive tornado days in United States history with a record 208 tornadoes touching down that day. Four of the tornadoes were destructive enough to be rated EF5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, which is the highest ranking possible; typically these tornadoes are only recorded about once each year or less.

In total, 346 people were killed as a result of the outbreak. That death toll includes 322 tornado-related deaths across six states. In addition, 24 fatalities were not caused by tornadoes, but were confirmed to be as a result of other thunderstorm-related impacts such as straight-line winds, hail, flash flooding or lightning.[8][9] 239 deaths in Alabama alone were confirmed by the SPC and the state's Emergency Management Agency.

April 27 was the deadliest tornado day in the United States since the 1925 "Tri-State" outbreak, which produced the infamous Tri-State Tornado. Although it has been classified by some news outlets as the second-deadliest tornado outbreak in United States history, the 1936 Tupelo–Gainesville tornado outbreak actually holds that distinction with at least 436 reported deaths split almost evenly over two days. Officially the outbreak is listed by NOAA as the fourth deadliest in United States history and the 24-hour-period from 8:00 a.m. April 27 to 8:00 a.m. April 28 as the fifth deadliest tornado day in United States history. Over 492 preliminary local storm reports were received for tornadoes over four days, including 292 in 16 states on April 27. It was also the costliest tornado outbreak and one of the costliest natural disasters in United States history. With 4 EF5s, 11 EF4s,and 23 EF3s this day may never be duplicated.Hulaco EF4
Piedmont EF5

May

May also saw some violent weather across the heartland.
Midwest/Southeast Tornado Outbreak (May 22-27)

This six-day tornado outbreak killed approximately 180 people, and includes the EF-5 tornadoes that rolled through Joplin, Missouri on May 22, and El Reno, Oklahoma on May 24. Tornadoes in this storm were spawned from central Texas to the Upper Midwest. The whole event is estimated to have done $7 billion in damages.

Mississippi River Flooding

Between the spring snow-melt and two storms that dumped massive amounts of rain in the Mississippi watershed in April, the Mississippi was in for a flood of record proportions. The river began to bulge by the beginning of May, flooding every state from Illinois to Louisiana and Mississippi. A federal disaster was declared by the President in Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi. In an effort to save Baton Rouge and New Orleans, Louisiana, the Army Corps of Engineers opened the Morganza Spillway on May 14, which flooded 4,600 square miles of Louisiana. The NCDC estimates $4 billion in damages from this flood, although the final amount might not be fully realized yet.

June

Midwest, Southeast, Plains Severe Weather Outbreak (June 16-22)

This seven-day outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes featured four EF-3 tornadoes. The worst storm damage occurred in Wheeling, Illinois. The whole event is estimated to have done $1.25 billion in damages.

Texas Drought & Wildfires

Texas is in the midst of one of the worst droughts of its history. As of June 28, 2011, 91% of Texas was in extreme or greater drought, and 47% of the state was in an "exceptional drought," the most severe category. In April and May of 2011, wildfires burned over 3 million acres across the state. The governor of Texas, Rick Perry, has declared a State of Disaster every month since December 2010. As of June 16, NCDC estimates that the drought and fires in Texas have cost $3.0 billion.

August

Hurricane Irene

Hurricane Irene roared ashore over the Outer Banks of North Carolina on August 27, 2011, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Irene made a second landfall on Long Island, NY on August 28 as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Major coastal damage resulted from the hurricane's storm surge and battering waves; two new channels were carved through the Outer Banks, isolating the barrier islands from the mainland. However, the main damage from Irene occurred due to the storm's heavy rains of 8 - 12 inches that fell over much of the Northeast. Record flooding hit rivers in NJ, NY, VT, PA, and CT, resulting in billions in damage and dozens of lives lost.

September

Tropical Storm Lee Flooding

Tropical Storm Lee made landfall on the Lousiana coast on September 4, 2011, as a very wet tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Lee dumped over 10" of rain over Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee, but flooding damage was limited in these states due to pre-existing drought conditions. However, Lee's remnants reached the Northeast U.S. on September 8, where soils were already saturated from heavy August rains due, in part, to Hurricane Irene on August 28. Irene set the stage for what was to become the greatest flood in recorded history on the Susquehanna River. On September 5, a front stalled out over Pennsylvania and New York. Tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Tropical Storm Lee was lifted up over the front, and heavy downpours resulted. The rains continued for four days, and were amplified by the arrival of Tropical Storm Lee's remnants on September 7, plus a stream of moisture emanating from far-away Hurricane Katia, 1,000 miles to the south-southeast. Binghamton, New York received 8.70" of rain in 24 hours September 7 - 8, the greatest 24-hour rainfall in city history. This was nearly double the city's previous all-time record (4.68" on Sep 30 - Oct. 1, 2010.) The record rains falling on soils still saturated from Hurricane Irene's rains ran off rapidly into the Susquehanna River, which rose an astonishing twenty feet in just 24 hours. By noon on September 8, the rampaging Susquehanna River crested in Binghamton at 25.71', the highest level since records began in 1846. Record flood heights were recorded downstream in Pennsylvania as well, where damage is estimated at over $1 billion.

October

October Northeast Snow Storm

The most extraordinary October snowstorm in over two centuries hit the Northeast U.S. on October 29, bringing snow amounts as high as 32" to Peru, Massachussetts. Not since the infamous snow hurricane of 1804 have such prodigious amounts of snow been recorded in New England and, to a lesser extent, in the mid-Atlantic states. Trees that had not yet lost their leaves suffered tremendous damage from the wet, heavy snow, and snapped branches and falling trees brought down numerous power lines, leaving at least 3 million people without electricity. Damage in Connecticut alone was estimated at $3 billion, exceeding the damage from Hurricane Irene.

November
A powerful storm system moving through the southern Great Plains produced tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds and flooding across parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas on November 7-8, 2011. The system initially produced numerous thunderstorms, heavy rainfall and flash flooding over parts of south central Oklahoma during the late evening of November 6th and early morning of November 7th. Rainfall totals of 5-9 inches were reported across parts of Jefferson, Carter and Murray counties.

The system then generated severe weather including tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds and flooding from the early afternoon of November 7th through the early morning of November 8th. Several supercell thunderstorms developed over southwest Oklahoma during the mid-afternoon hours and moved northeast. One particularly nasty supercell thunderstorm developed over northern Wilbarger county in north Texas. This thunderstorm moved northeast into Tillman county, eventually producing at least six tornadoes over a five county area (If you would like to view images of the tornadoes, click here, or click the Storm Photos tab at the top of the page). A preliminary tornado track map is available below. Two of the tornadoes moved near two Oklahoma Mesonet sites, both taking direct hits. The Mesonet site at Tipton measured 86.4 mph before it was destroyed. The Mesonet site near Fort Cobb measured 91.4 mph before it was destroyed. Both sites also recorded significant drops in surface pressure. You can see the recorded data (before malfunctioning) at Tipton and Fort Cobb, courtesy of the Oklahoma Mesonet. Other supercells over southwest Oklahoma eventually congealed into a complex of storms and moved east into central Oklahoma. Numerous reports of high winds (92 mph near Clinton, OK) and hail up to golf ball-size were reported
Tipton Oklahoma

Saddle Mountain

A severe weather event (small scale) unfolded on November 15th with 4 confirmed tornadoes in Alabama.
On Tuesday, November 15th, moisture began streaming northward from the Gulf of Mexico. The moisture surge was just ahead of an approaching upper level low. Surface dew points climbed into the middle 60s and created increased atmospheric instability late Tuesday night. As the upper low approached, deep layer shear increased and led to increased storm relative helicities (SRH) in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. This set the stage for supercell development in Central Alabama. By 5 am Wednesday morning, dew points had increased into the upper 60s and 0-1km SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 across Sumter and Marengo Counties. By 745 am, one supercell dropped 2 tornadoes in these counties. Similar severe weather parameters advected across Central Alabama through the morning hours and caused additional supercell development near Montgomery, Auburn and Opelika.

December
December would again bring a mixed bag of weather in the form of a raging Blizzard to parts of the Central Plains and tornadoes to the Southeast. On Thursday the 22nd 6 tornadoes raked across Central and south Alabama doing mainly minor damage but just reminding everyone tornadoes happen any month of the year. What will 2012 have in store for us all? That yet to be seen but you can rest assure that we will be there to bring you all the details days in advance, reporting from the field during an event, and after it is all over. Thank you for your continued support in 2011 and see you in 2012. Tommy Self Lead chaser for the Tennessee Valley Storm Trackers

6 confirmed Tornadoes From Thursday

2011-12-23T15:54:00.003-06:00

Here are a list of the preliminary findings on 6 confirmed tornadoes from yesterday.
The NWS is still conducting more damage surveys so the list may grow so stay tuned.

#1 Brent [Bibb Co, AL] nws storm survey reports TORNADO of F0 at 22 Dec, 12:57 PM CST -- an ef0 tornado with winds of 70-80 mph briefly touched down 2 miles south of centreville. several large pine trees were uprooted at this location. no other damage was noted either direction indicating a brief touchdown along cr 219.
#2 W Gardner Island [Dallas Co, AL] nws storm survey reports TORNADO of F0 at 22 Dec, 01:00 PM CST -- the tornado touched down approximately 6 miles west of selma along cr 306 where minor tree damage occurred, along with roof damage to two mobile homes. the tornado then traveled further ne to gardner and harville roads where several soft and hardwood trees were damaged or snapped. there was also some structure damage, with one outbuilding destroyed and on one mobile home that was shifted off of the foundation blocks. the tornado lifted shortly after near river rd.
#3 Talladega Nationa [Bibb Co, AL] nws storm survey reports TORNADO of F0 at 22 Dec, 01:25 PM CST -- an ef0 tornado with winds of 70-80 mph briefly touched down between lawley and randolph in se bibb county. damage began along hwy 82 with large limbs broken for 50 yards in width. the tornado then lifted just east of cr 36. here damage was 150 yards wide with numerous trees and uprooted
#4 Titus [Elmore Co, AL] nws storm survey reports TORNADO of F1 at 22 Dec, 02:24 PM CST -- an ef1 tornado with winds of 90-100 mph moved across elmore...coosa...and west tallapoosa counties. the tornaod first touched down on grey ferry rd in elmore county snapping 50 trees. on a ne path ef1 damage was observed on cr 14 east of hwy 231 in coosa county. here hundreds of trees were snapped. max damage width of 300 yards near hissop. a second ef1 rating was observed on cr 89 near hwy 280 in kellyton. here a large metal building was destroyed. the tornaod lifted in tallapoosa on hix rd.
#5 Columbiana [Shelby Co, AL] nws storm survey reports TORNADO of F0 at 01:42 PM CST -- an ef0 tornado with winds of 70-80 mph briefly touched down in columbiana, along county road 47 and moved northeast for 1.8 miles, lifting along county road 25. along its path, 2 homes were damaged due to falling trees. approximately 50 trees were snapped or uprooted. maximum path width was 150 yds.
#6 EVENT TYPE: EF-1
TORNADO ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 90-100
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 0
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 32.7438/-86.2996 AT 224 PM
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 32.9902/-85.992 AT 252 PM
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH
(IN MILES): 24.9
DAMAGE WIDTH (IN YARDS): 300 YARDS

A NON-CONTINUOUS TRACK TORNADO WITH MAXIMUM EF1 WINDS OF 90-100 MPH
MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ELMORE...EASTERN COOSA...AND
LIFTED JUST EAST OF THE TALLAPOOSA COUNTY LINE. THE TORNADO FIRST
TOUCHED DOWN ON GREY FERRY ROAD RESULTING IN 50 SNAPPED TREES.
SPORADIC DAMAGE OCCURRED ALONG THE PATH WITH TWO DISTINCT AREAS
REACHING EF1 STRENGTH. THE FIRST AREA OF EF1 DAMAGE OCCURED ON
COUNTY ROAD 14 JUST EAST OF HWY 231 IN COOSA COUNTY. HERE HUNDREDS
OF TREES WERE SNAPPED WITH A DAMAGE WIDTH OF 200 YARDS. THE TORNADO
THEN CONTINUED ON A NORTHEAST TRACK CROSSING HWY 231 AND COUNTY ROAD
22. THIS IS WHERE THE TORNADO REACHED ITS MAXIMUM WIDTH OF 300 YARDS
NEAR HISSOP IN COOSA COUNTY. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST AND
REGAINED ITS EF1 STRENGTH ON COUNTY ROAD 89 NEAR HWY 280 IN
KELLYTON. HERE A LARGE METAL BUILDING WAS DESTROYED AND A LARGE 100
YEAR OLD OAK WAS UPROOTED. THE TORNADO LIFTED JUST NORTHEAST OF HWY
280 ON HIX ROAD IN TALLAPOOSA COUNTY. TOTAL PATH LENGTH WAS 24.9
MILES. ALONG ITS PATH, 1 BUILDING WAS DESTROYED AND 1 HOME WAS
DAMAGED. IN TOTAL...APPROXIMATELY 400 TO 500 TREES WERE SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED IN TOTAL.

Severe Tomorrow?????????

2011-12-21T09:09:00.006-06:00

Ok after a few emails and DMs on social media about tomorrows threat I will do a quick rundown for you. All of the models below are off the NAM runs this morning except the RPM models (from James Spann).
Question one to me was with it this warm are we going to get some real bad weather. Answer in a nut shell MAYBE. These warm days are not unusual remember this is the DEEP SOUTH and very cold winters are not very common, but when we do get warm temps ahead of a strong cold front it could spell trouble, but not this time. Yes the SPC has parts of NW, West and SW Alabama in a slight risk for tomorrow. The term SLIGHT RISK is the STANDARD RISK the SPC uses and means it is possible to see some strong to severe storms tomorrow in the risk area. There does seem to be enough instability to support it, but in my opinion the best energy RIGHT NOW (and it may change) looks to be south of I-20. With that said if you will notice we it is showing decent SB Cape up here and the STP is near 2.5-3 all across areas from 1-65 to the west. Clearly the best instability is going to be in South Alabama with the RPM SB Cape at 1000-1500 J k/g as well as the NAM SB Cape showing near 500 . We look to have enough SRH near 200 m2/s2, along with decent lapse rates, that might spin off a severe storm or 2 in NW Alabama. The Significant Severe Parameters, Supercell Composites seem to support the SPC thinking of warranting the slight risk this far north. The Surface temps look to keep South Alabama in the REAL Juicy Air with temps near 70 and DP near 60-65, but expect anything. THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SEVERE SET UP but it bares watching. Stay tuned for updates on our facebook page (link in the right task bar) as well as on twitter. If it does seem to jump off and warrants the drive we may be chasing that far south tomorrow. If you have any questions feel frre to email me at TVST@knology.net or contact through social media

SPC Convective Outlook

RPM 4pm

RPM SB Cape 2pm

Noon SB Cape

Surface Temps 3pm

SigSvr 3pm

STP 3pm

SuperCell Composite 3pm

0-1km SRH

Sig hail Parameters 3pm

Severe Weather On The Way?????????

2011-12-19T16:10:00.003-06:00

SRH valid 6am Wednesday

EHI valid 6am Wednesday

SB Cape valid 6am Wednesday

Severe thunderstorms look to be possible over parts of Mississippi tomorrow afternoon, and they could move into West Alabama tomorrow night and into Wednesday Morning, with that the SPC has portions of West and North West Alabama under their standard SLIGHT RISK. The 18z NAM model suggests sufficient instability and shear values for a few severe storms, with decent surface based CAPE values, and Low level helicity might suggest an isolated small tornado is possible with some of the stronger storms as well. Seems like the best risk of severe weather will be to the west of Huntsville tomorrow night,and then move east on Wednesday Morning. The NAM model outputs below are Valid 6am Wednesday Morning and they still suggest we could still be unstable enough to fire off a storm or two.

The primary threat will come from about 9:00 p.m. tomorrow night through 12:00 noon Wednesday, and should be in the form of strong gusty winds, small hail is possible, vivid lightning, and of course a small tornado is also possible. With that said take in mind this is not a classic severe setup like we would get in the spring with large violent tornadoes. If we do have a tornado it will most likely be on the low end EF0 EF1 range. Stay tuned for updates as well as any chase information.

Snow Bust For Some But Pretty To Look At

2011-12-08T13:25:00.004-06:00

Well as we all expected (one reason I did not do an accumulation map) we saw some decent little snow showers, but that was about it. As we had been discussing we would see very little accumulation if any as the rain changed over. Although as I made my way to the top of Monte Sano Mountain in Huntsville the change over was hard and heavy enough that it began to stick very quickly. The one bright spot was I got to share it with my beautiful wife Sharree. The HRRR nailed the accumulation potential as it always has done well. Does this mean we are in for another White Christmas? NO! Does this mean we will see as much snow as we did last winter? NO! Yes we have had 2 rounds of snowfall already and winter is not even officially started yet, but that does not mean anything. We are in a similar pattern that we were in last winter but as of right now we look to stay a little warmer than normal with rounds of rain and thunderstorms instead of snow. That is all up in the air as winter weather is very hard to forecast and difficult to nail down who gets what and when. So take it all in stride as the winter could prove to be very interesting.

SNOW?????????????????

2011-11-27T08:39:00.004-06:00

Still to early to be sure but if these model runs are correct we could be in for a decent surprise from tomorrow night into Tuesday Morning across North Ala, Southern Tenn, and North Miss. There have been some ULLs that have dropped big snow amounts in the past. It looks as if we have any snow issues it will all be north of I-20 and mostly on grassy areas. We are not expecting any types of travel conditions as the ground temps are way to warm, but these ULLs can drop snowfall at a very fast rate (2-4" per hour) so for you to see 2" on grass it would almost be like 4-6" if the ground was cold enough to support it all. These ULLs always bring surprises so expect the unexpected with this one as well

09Z RPM

00z NAM

00Z GFS

06Z NAM

Wet End To Our Weekend

2011-11-25T10:42:00.004-06:00

Well it is shaping up to be a beautiful Friday as we all either shop for those deals or get ready for some college football. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 60s so enjoy it because it is about to fall apart. Our next weather maker is out to our west affecting portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, and New Mexico today. This area of disturbed weather will impact us as early as 3-4pm Saturday afternoon in North Alabama, and will bring 1-2" of rain with it. This system has decent dynamics but with no surface based instability any thunderstorm that develops will be elevated so severe weather is not anticipated, but some lightning and a few rumbles of thunder is possible. The Low Track model below shows a Low Developing right over Alabama Monday and moving NE. This is based on the ECMWF as the GFS keeps it sunny around here with a slight warm up. The ECMWF has it cool with highs in the 40s and rain and the HPC also is in agreement with the ECMWF with a 3 inch bulls eye just north of the Tenn/Ala line near Fayettville valid Tomorrow through 12z Monday. This time of year the ECMWF is the one model that stays consistent I use it mainly during our winter seasons (remember all the winter events last winter).

Next System

HPC totals valid through 12z Monday

Low Tracks Through Monday

Tuesday Trouble then Saturday????

2011-11-21T07:51:00.004-06:00

EHI Midnight Tuesday

NAM SB Cape Midnight Tuesday

500mb Vortmax Saturday 7am

Warm is the word. It is very very warm for the end of November as most areas will be between 73-78 degrees across the state and some areas might even see 80F if the sun comes out. The SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for areas to our west including Texas, South Oklahoma, and SW Arkansas.

A strong upper trough and surface front approaches and showers and storms will increase tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, and much of Alabama is in a slight risk for that reason. The main window for severe weather in Alabama now looks as if it will come from about 3:00 p.m. tomorrow until 3:00 a.m. Wednesday. A tornado threat does not seem overly high with somewhat marginal SRH values ,but a few isolated tornadoes are certainly possible as SRH values will certainly be high enough to support rotating updrafts during the late afternoon and evening hours with any discreet cells that form ahead of the squall line over North and Central Alabama. The main severe weather threat looks to come from damaging winds with bowing segments along the line tomorrow night as it moves through. This looks like the setup last Wednesday when the few tornadoes did hit a few areas of the state, but unlike then when it was just Central and Southern Alabama being effected this one will affect the whole area. The system moves out and Thanksgiving looks great as well as Black Friday, but then comes Saturday. The system on Saturday looks stronger and more robust than the one on Tuesday right now so we will have to watch it close.

Severe Setup For Tuesday

2011-11-20T15:34:00.005-06:00

As most of you have noticed from other forms of social media today Tuesday is shaping up to be a very severe stormy type of day. I could go into a lot of detail but this is from Bill Murry of ABC 3340 in Birmingham and he says enough.

Tuesday seems to be shaping up as a potential severe weather day for Alabama as a strong upper trough and surface low impact the region.

By Tuesday morning, the surface low will be in Central Illinois with a trailing cold front west of the Mississippi River. Showers and storms will be spreading across Mississippi and will reach western Alabama during the afternoon.

Temperatures will be in the 70s ahead of the front, with dewpoints in the middle 60s. Instabilities will be between 750-1,000 j/kg. There will be a decent low level jet at 5,000 feet and bulk wind shear will be sufficient for sustained updrafts. There will also be divergence at the Jetstream level, which is another factor for severe storm development.

So, several ingredients will be in place for a significant severe weather outbreak across Alabama Tuesday afternoon and evening, including the potential for supercell thunderstorms.

The threat will mainly affect areas west of I-65 between noon and 6 p.m., shifting eastward as the afternoon and evening progress. It is a situation that will have to be monitored closely.

Needless to say, all Alabamians should carefully monitor this developing weather situation.

STACK THE ODDS IN YOUR FAVOR:

1. Have a method for receiving tornado warnings, whether it is NOAA Weatheradio, an app, social media, email or the television. In fact, have more than one method, because as April 27th proved, systems fail at critical moments.

2. Know what to do when severe weather threatens. Underground, under something sturdy is the best rule. But know what you will do when that moment comes and a tornado warning is issued for you. Here is a complete list of safety suggestions, broken down into actions during severe weather threat days and during tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood watches and warnings. Please use it to help formulate your family’s personal severe weather plan.

IF you have a warnings source and know what to do to get to a place of absolute safety, you are nearly 100% certain to be uninjured by a tornado. Stack the odds in your favor…it’s easy to do.

HAVING SAID ALL THIS…THIS EVENT IS NOT APRIL 27th
The April 27th tornado outbreak hopefully is a once in a lifetime event, but it doesn’t take a historic outbreak to produce tornadoes and severe thunderstorms that can injure and kill people. We need to treat all potential severe weather events as life threatening. This means knowing your plan and executing it when warnings are issued. Then you don’t have to worry!

Tuesday outlook

Tuesday probability

NAM 1km SRH 1pm

GFS SB Cape 7pm

NAM Sb Cape 7pm

4pm SuperCell Composite

4pm Sig Severe

4pm Sig Hail

7pm STP

4pm STP

Coldest Temps So Far This Year

2011-11-18T12:11:00.001-06:00

Below are some local reports from the cold this morning. These are by far the coldest temps since last winter. Could this be a precursor to our winter this season only time will tell.

19 Broomtown/Cherokee County

21 Russellville Airport

22 Haleyville, Black Creek

23 Hanceville, Addison, Valley Head, Meridianville, Vigo

24 Oak Grove, Pinson, Scottsboro, Kimberly

25 Rockford, Camp Hill, Decatur, Gadsden, McCalla

26 Crossville, Centreville, Dora, Coker, Fayette, Muscle Shoals

27 Fort Payne, Huntsville

28 Boaz, Alexander City, Cullman Airport

29 Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Troy, Bessemer, Gardendale

30 Albertville, Hytop

Wednesday Tornado Confirmations So Far

2011-11-17T07:47:00.001-06:00

ALABAMA
...TORNADO 1...
...SUMTER COUNTY TORNADO...

EVENT DATE: NOVEMBER 16, 2011
EVENT TYPE: EF-2 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 120
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 1 INJURY
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 32.3633/-88.0894 AT 707 AM
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 32.3763/-88.0689 AT 709 AM
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 1.50
DAMAGE WIDTH (IN YARDS): 600 YARDS

AN EF-2 TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN IN WHITFIELD AND MOVED
NORTHEAST...AND LIFTED NORTH OF COUNTY ROAD 42. ALONG ITS SHORT
PATH...APPROXIMATELY 150 SOFTWOOD TREES WERE SNAPPED...50 HARDWOOD
TREES WERE UPROOTED...AND FIVE OUTBUILDINGS WERE DAMAGED. SIX HOMES
AND ONE DOUBLE WIDE MOBILE HOME WERE DAMAGED. ONE HOME WAS DESTROYED
ALONG COUNTY ROAD 42 WHERE ONE INJURY OCCURRED.

...TORNADO 2...
...MARENGO COUNTY TORNADO...

EVENT DATE: NOVEMBER 16, 2011
EVENT TYPE: EF-0 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 85
INJURIES/FATALITIES: NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 32.4813/-87.8567 AT 732 AM
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 32.5032/-87.8174 AT 736 AM
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 2.57
DAMAGE WIDTH (IN YARDS): 250 YARDS

AN EF-0 TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN IN DEMOPOLIS ALONG MARIA AVE
AND MOVED NORTHEAST WHERE IT CROSSED JEFFERSON RD. IT LIFTED ALONG
US HIGHWAY 80...EAST OF US HIGHWAY 43. APPROXIMATELY 20 HOMES IN THE
EDGEWOOD SUBDIVISION SUSTAINED MINOR ROOF DAMAGE. SEVERAL BUSINESS
SIGNS ALONG US HIGHWAY 80 WERE BLOWN DOWN. THE CENTRAL FARMERS COOP
SUSTAINED SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AS A PORTION OF ITS ROOF WAS
REMOVED.

MISSISSIPPI

MARION/JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY TORNADO:
BEGINNING POINT: 8 N COLUMBIA AT 411 AM
ENDING POINT: 3 SE BASSFIELD AT 425 AM
RATING: EF-1, MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WINDS 100 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 11 MILES MAXIMUM WIDTH 0.25 MILES

SUMMARY OF DAMAGE: THE TORNADO STARTED IN MARION COUNTY ON GOSS
BUNKER HILL ROAD WITH MOSTLY MINOR TREE DAMAGE. AS IT MOVED
NORTHEAST, CROSSING STUCKEY ROAD, MORE MINOR TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED
ALONG WITH HOME TV AND RADIO ANTENNAS BEING BLOWN DOWN. AS IT MOVED
ALONG E. RESERVOIR ROAD, MORE SUBSTANTIAL TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED ALONG
WITH ROOF DAMAGE TO A FEW HOMES AND MOBILE HOMES. AS IT CONTINUED
NORTHEAST, MORE MAJOR TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED ALONG WITH SNAPPED POWER
POLES ON BUFKIN AND GRICE ROADS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE
OCCURRED ALONG BUNKER HILL ROAD WHERE HOME WITH ROOF DAMAGE OCCURRED
ALONG WITH MANY TREES UPROOTED AND SNAPPED. SEVERAL METAL SHEDS WERE
EITHER SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. A CATTLE TRAILER WAS PICKED UP
AND THROWN APPROXIMATELY 200 YARDS. AS IT CROSSED HWY 35, MAJOR TREE
DAMAGE CONTINUED WHERE PINES AND HARDWOOD WERE EITHER SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED. A CARPORT WAS COLLAPSED AT A RESIDENCE NEAR BRYANT ROAD.
THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST CROSSING ROBBINS AND F. MCNEESE ROAD
WHERE MAINLY TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED. AS THE TORNADO CROSSED S.
WILLIAMSBURG ROAD, THE ROOF OF A NEWLY BUILT BAR WAS TORN OFF ALONG
WITH MAJOR TREE DAMAGE. AS IT CONTINUED NORTHEAST FROM THERE, MOSTLY
TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED UNTIL IT ENDED NEAR GATES ROAD, JUST SOUTH OF
HWY 42 IN JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY.

JONES COUNTY TORNADO:
BEGINNING POINT: 4 SE HEBRON AT 503 AM
ENDING POINT: 4.5 ESE HEBRON AT 507 AM
RATING: EF-1, MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WINDS 95 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 2 MILES MAXIMUM WIDTH: 50 YARDS

SUMMARY OF DAMAGE: THIS TORNADO DEVELOPED AND DOWNED SEVERAL TREES
ALONG FRED ELLZEY ROAD, AND CAUSED MODERATE DAMAGE TO THE ROOF OF A
LARGE HOME NORTH OF THE ROAD. THE TORNADO MOVED NORTHEAST, SNAPPING
SEVERAL TREES AND HEAVILY DAMAGING AN OUTBUILDING AS IT CROSSED WEST
CREEK ROAD. THE TORNADO THEN SNAPPED A FEW TREES AND DAMAGED THE ROOF
OF AN OUTBUILDING JUST BEFORE CROSSING HIGHWAY 84, SHORTLY AFTER
WHICH IT DISSIPATED.

JONES/JASPER COUNTY TORNADO
BEGINNING POINT: 7 W LAUREL AT 512 AM
ENDING POINT: 2.5 N SHARON AT 530 AM
RATING: EF-2, MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WINDS 130 MPH
INJURIES: 15
PATH LENGTH: 12 MILES MAXIMUM WIDTH: 300 YARDS

SUMMARY OF DAMAGE:
THE TORNADO DEVELOPED ALONG PAT HOLLIMAN AND LEROY HILL ROADS,
DOWNING A FEW TREES. THE TORNADO MOVED NORTHEAST, WIDENED AND REACHED
ITS MAXIMUM WIDTH IN THE AREA OF SPRINGHILL ROAD, WHERE HIGH END EF-1
DAMAGE TO TREES OCCURRED. THE TORNADO THEN NARROWED TO ABOUT 150 TO
250 YARD WIDE PATH OF MID TO HIGH END EF-2 DAMAGE ON EITHER SIDE OF
STATE HIGHWAY 15 IN THE SHADY GROVE COMMUNITY NORTHWEST OF LAUREL.
SEVERAL MOBILE HOMES WERE COMPLETELY DESTROYED, NUMEROUS POWER POLES
WERE SNAPPED, SEVERAL FRAME AND BRICK HOMES SUFFERED MAJOR DAMAGE AND
OTHER MODERATE DAMAGE, AND EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED. A FEW
COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 15 SUFFERED MAJOR DAMAGE. AS
THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST JONES COUNTY, IT
CAUSED EF-1 TYPE DAMAGE AS IT CROSSED SHARON-MOSS AND LAKE COMO
ROADS, SNAPPING AND UPROOTING TREES AND CAUSING SOME ROOF AND MINOR
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO SEVERAL HOMES. THE TORNADO THEN INTENSIFIED
SOMEWHAT AGAIN AS IT CROSSED INTO JASPER COUNTY, DESTROYING THREE
LARGE CHICKEN HOUSES AND CAUSING EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE ALONG COUNTY
ROAD 812 JUST INSIDE THE JASPER COUNTY LINE. THE TORNADO DISSIPATED
SHORTLY AFTER CAUSING THIS DAMAGE. SO FAR, 15 PEOPLE WERE INJURED BY
THIS TORNADO, WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE INJURIES BEING RELATIVELY MINOR.

Fall Chasin in the Ark/La/Tex

2011-11-06T18:40:00.003-06:00

Still waiting on some more information on the dynamics of the system. Tomorrow looks to be a big day out in portions of Texas and Oklahoma as some tornadoes are possible. As the system moves eastward we could see some severe weather including tornadoes in portions of Arkansas, Missouri, and Louisiana on Tuesday afternoon. While the system will not be as dynamic then as it will be out in the plains severe thunderstorms is a given. Below is the latest SPC outlook and probabilities for Tuesday as well as the STP (significant tornado parameter) for 4pm Tuesday and the Significant Severe threat for the same time. The STP is at 2 units which for a fall setup is pretty high. Stay tuned for chase details
Day 3 Probabilities

Day 3 outlook

Sig Svr

STP

Severe Weather Possible Next Week???????

2011-11-02T21:01:00.003-05:00

The weather pattern next week will favor building warmth over much of the eastern half of the nation with a flow of humid air developing off the Gulf of Mexico over the South Central states.

Meanwhile, a potent storm system is forecast to travel from Texas to the Great Lakes during the middle of the week.

If the currently growing dip in the jet stream in the West were to lunge toward the Mississippi Valley as it is forecast to do, around the same time, we could be looking at damaging thunderstorms including tornadoes in part of an area hit hard by violent weather during the spring, including us here in North Alabama.

It is too early to give much detail on the situation, as it is still a week away. However, it appears the size of the threat area for severe thunderstorms at this time would be rather large and stretch from central Texas to south-central Kansas, eastward to the Florida Panhandle to the Ohio Valley. Are we saying we will have a repeat of the April tornado onslaught, NO. What we are saying is that models are in agreement RIGHT NOW that severe weather is possible in the same areas affected then. So stay tuned for future updates.

Our Secondary Tornado Season Is Upon Us

2011-11-01T14:27:00.002-05:00

I just wanted to remind everyone that on November 1st we began our secondary tornado season here in Alabama. Our Fall season has been very active over the last 10 years or so. We may not see the large long track super tornadoes (EF3 or greater) as often as we typically do in the spring season but they do happen and some very memorable outbreak and large tornadoes in our secondary (fall/winter)season are. First we look back at the November 10th 2002 outbreak in Central Alabama. This hit close to home for me in more than one way. Not only was I chasing that day but 2 EF3s hit in my county and 1 in my community. They were part of 11 tornadoes that day that killed 12 people and injured 100. These tornadoes hit after dark with the first just before 8pm and the last just before midnight. Another memorable fall tornado was the November 15 1989 F4 that tore through the Huntsville area killing 21 and injuring 463. This tornado hit right at rush hour as everyone was heading home. Other significant tornadoes not associated with the SPRING season was the Super Tuesday outbreak of 2008 that saw two EF4s tear across North Alabama in the early morning hours begining at 3am and the other at 5:17am killing 5 and injuring 35 in Lawrence, Morgan and Jackson Counties. Two other tornadoes that morning hit Marshall and Cullman Counties. FYI stronger tornadoes hit across Tennessee killing and injuring more as well. One of the hardest hit area in Tennessee as Union University in Jackson. Also in 2008 we had the Christmas Eve tornado in Limestone county. One other fall/winter tornado of some importance to us in North Alabama was the January 21st 2010 EF2 that hit the Huntsville area. So as you can see the fall and winter months also produce some strong tornaodes. All it takes is a day or two of 70 plus degree temps and then a strong cold front to push in and the stage is set. So stay tuned to your local weather info or follow me on Twitter @Ala_StormChaser and on facebook at Tennessee Valley Storm Trackers.

Wet Weather On The Increase.

2011-09-19T19:37:00.005-05:00

Well after a few dry comfortable days that will all change by the end of the week. As I type this a very light rain continues to fall across portions of North Alabama, but this is just a precursor to whats to come. The next two days will be warm and humid, and the sky will be cloudy at times, so we will have the chance of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Highs will be in the 80s, and most communities around here should see 1 to 2 inches of rain by Thursday night (The HPC model below is thru Saturday). We are not expecting any organized severe weather although thunder and lightning is not out of the question at times.

Then cooler and drier air will blow into Alabama Friday with returning sunshine and highs in the 70s across the central counties of the state. But, do not be surprised at all in portions of North Alabama if we get some low clouds our temps does not get out of the 60s with a deep upper low north of Alabama,

The weekend looks to be dry and pleasant, with partly to mostly sunny days and fair, cool nights. Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s, and close to 80 Sunday. Most likely the coolest morning will come early Saturday when some upper 40s are possible across the colder valleys of North Alabama.

Threes A Crowd...

2011-09-07T21:03:00.005-05:00

Well I guess you can say the tropics are as active as they can be with 3 named storms ongoing at one time. Katia, Maria, and Nate all churning at the same time, and while Katia and Maria pose no threat to the US Coast we will need to watch Nate closely. Again no models are agreeing on the track of Nate as you can see. The NHC official track takes him into Mexico as a hurricane, but to far south to help the major drought stricken areas of Texas and they need the help badly. Some other models have Nate almost stationary then moves either into the Northern Gulf or into Mexico. Over the last few days the ECMWF had Nate coming into the Biloxi Ms/ Mobile Bay area, but now it is also on board with the GFS and goes into Mexico. We do note the latest 12z Canadian moves Nate rapidly to the Gulf Coast near Mobile Bay late in the weekend with more wind and rain for Alabama Sunday night and Monday. This model is rarely persistent or correct and is the usual outlier and hardly trusted. So stay tuned for the latest on this and all other breaking weather information.

Nate Intensity Map

Spaghetti plots

NHC Official Track

Spaghetti Plots

Broad Atlantic Look

Lee Update!!!

2011-09-03T14:57:00.004-05:00

Latest spaghetti plots for LEE

Current radar

Precipitation estimates for LEE valid through Tuesday

Current Tornado watch box

We can expect rainfall amounts of 10-15 inches with some local 20+ inch amounts will fall across SE Louisiana, southern Mississippi and Alabama. 4-8 inches can be expected across the Florida Panhandle. Flash flood watches and warnings are in effect.

Although just a tropical storm look for a storm surge of 3-5 feet along the Louisiana coast and 2-4 feet along the Alabama/Mississippi coast.

A tropical storm warning is in effect from the Alabama/Florida border westward to Sabine Pass TX. A tropical storm watch is in effect eastward to Destin.

A tornado watch is in effect for southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi/Alabama and the far western Florida Panhandle.

Late Sunday night into Monday appears likely to be our wettest days, and it would not surprise me any if we saw temperatures staying in the 70s to low 80s.

Remember to that with any land falling system even weak ones such as LEE we could see a low tornado threat. These types of systems can spin up a weak tornado with little to no warning at all. THIS WILL NOT BE A TORNADO OUTBREAK, but a spin up or two will be possible.

Lee or Maria?????????????

2011-09-01T16:11:00.011-05:00

GFS Midday Tuesday

Euro midday Tuesday

Canadian midday Monday

HPC for next 5 days

RPM valid for 3pm Sunday

Spaghetti plot

Intensity forecast for invest 93

We are looking like we could see a beneficial and significant rain event come Sunday into Monday as tropical moisture from the system (LEE or MARIA) in the Gulf. After days of model madness the GFS, Euro, and the Canadian models are starting to get into agreement (12z run) for rain and a few thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday,and Tuesday with potential for heavy rain at times.

We could still see some rain linger into Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday, as the Remnants of the tropical circulation creeps through Alabama very slowly. It is very possible that parts of North/Central Alabama could see two to five inches of rain Sunday through Wednesday with flooding not out of the question. I know no one wants to hear the thought of flooding but we have not seen any measurable rainfall in over 2 weeks so we will have to take the good and bad together. Also another thing to mention is the chance of spin up tornadoes with land falling tropical systems. I AM NOT SAYING WE WILL HAVE A TORNADO OUTBREAK, but you can get spin ups during land falling systems.

Our biggest threat will will come from heavy rain and the flooding potential here in North and Central Alabama as well as flooding and Rip Currents along the coastal areas Panama City Beach has already closed all public beaches. Stay tuned to this developing weather situation as I will be updating on our facebook page all weekend.

Irene update!!!!!

2011-08-23T08:52:00.006-05:00

Well Hurricane Irene now has sustained winds of 100 mph, and will be tearing through the Bahamas as a CAT 3 hurricane or stronger over the next 48 hours.

Most model guidance continues to shift a little to the east, and the highest landfall probabilities look to remain over the North Carolina coast Saturday afternoon or Saturday night so I am sticking with my initial landfall target of Bald Head Island NC. It looks as if Hurricane Irene will be a major hurricane at the time of landfall,if you notice one of the plots below even have it as CAT 5.

There is a chance that Irene will remain just offshore, and with the continuing model trends to the east it could happen, but that is up for debate based on who you talk to at this point.Being 5 days out trying to forecast a land falling system is tough and that is why the NHC has such a large cone in their tracking maps.
The GFS shows Irene (bottom image) heading right up the East coast towards some major cities on Sunday night into Monday… Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston could be impacted in a major way by then. So if you know someone along the east coast please keep an eye on the local weather info and stay tuned here for updates at least 1 per day until landfall is imminent

IRENE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2011-08-22T16:25:00.007-05:00

Well as has been the case each run over the past few days the 12Z models have once again shifted east. So it now looks like a less chance of impact over Florida and increases the risk to the coasts of North and South Carolina. Although with each model run she keeps moving east and might not be a land falling system at all, and could be a coast hugging nuisance causing a major headache for everyone up the east coast. Notice the spaghetti plot/strength models below you see her as a possible Cat4 near South Carolina. So areas from Savannah, Ga to Beaufort North Carolina need to pay close attention to any and all information with this system. If I had to make a guess to where I believe it will make landfall based on today's models I would pick Bald Head Island NC. So stay tuned for updates to see if my landfall point proves correct.

Storm surge forecast for the Bahamas

1 track model

Spaghetti plot

Wind speed probabilities

Strength possibilities

Strength possibilities Carolina Coast

Clear Skies Equal Crisp Morning!!!!!!

2011-08-15T07:54:00.004-05:00

As most weather geeks have been talking about the past few days we woke up this morning to drier air and to some of the coolest temperatures in some time. I had a reading of 60F at my home in Madison and got a 59F reading in Huntsville. Most areas across North Alabama saw low 60s with some sheltered valleys in the upper 50s. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the 80s, but will be short lived as summer and slim rain chances return by the end of the week. Most areas will remain dry but we will mention an outside chance of a shower as moisture levels begin to rise, all in all a very slow and benign pattern. A quick look at the tropics.

Gert is a strong tropical storm with winds at 60mph and is passing just east of the island of Bermuda and will continue to turn out into the Atlantic. While we have seen many tropical waves in the last few weeks and 6 named storms it looks as if the tropical train will keep its right hand blinker on and keep turning them out into the Atlantic, with no models showing a tropical system threatening the U.S. coast anytime soon.

Indiana State Fair Stage Collapse

2011-08-14T13:08:00.001-05:00

A massive gust of wind brought down a stage at the Indiana State Fair on Saturday night, killing at least 5 and injuring 24, officials said.

UPDATE!!!!!!

A fifth person died overnight at a Indianapolis hospital after a stage collapsed Saturday night at the Indiana State Fair just before the band Sugarland was to have performed.

Winds estimated at 60 to 70 miles per hour caused the stage to collapse as a crowd waited for the performance.

About four-dozen people were injured.

Authorities Sunday identified the victims as old Alina Bigjohny, 23, of Fort Wayne; Christina Santiago, 29, of Chicago; Tammy Vandam, 42, of Wanatah, Ind.; and two Indianapolis residents: Glenn Goodrich, 49, and Nathan Byrd, 51.

Byrd died overnight.

All events at the fair Sunday were canceled.

Sugarland canceled a show Sunday at the Iowa State Fair.

The lead singer issued a statement saying the band is "stunned and heartbroken for the fans and their families in Indiana."

Rain chances on the way up, Emily out to sea??

2011-08-03T10:48:00.008-05:00

Well after the last few days with the heaters left running we could get a small reprieve from it all. The massive heat bubble retreats somewhat opening the door for a few shortwave to push close enough to us for a chance of showers and storms. It also is looking like no model wants to agree on the track of Emily while most have her turning out into the Atlantic some of the latest computer model guidance has once again shown a shift more to the west. Emily seems to have stayed on a more westward track than forecasts have shown, So it is really hard to tell. Below is a few model charts and images and as you can see Emily is so disorganized it is hard to even want to call it a tropical system. Take a look at Eugene the CAT 3 monster in the Eastern Pacific man what a storm. We will watch Emily close to see how she acts over the next couple days and hopefully we will get a little rain in the next few days as the HPC shows us getting a little so cross your fingers.

Thursday Forecast Chart

18z Sunday

HPC 5 day rainfall forecast

Current Spaghetti Plots for Emily

Emily Track Possibilities

Emily Sat Image

Emily Infrared

Eugene Infrared

Eugene Sat Image

Don still heading to Texas with Emily a Good Bet in the Next 48 Hours

2011-07-29T08:04:00.003-05:00

Well as you can see Don is still headed towards Texas, the bad thing is it keeps dipping further to the south with each update and if this trend continues most of the parched areas of South Texas will not get much in the way of beneficial rainfall. The rain shield is a lot smaller than the last couple days which is a sign of slight weakening. Now we turn our attention to invest 91L which could become Emily in the Next 48 hours or so. Some models have this storm near Leeward Islands in the next 96 hours, and most intensity models bring this one up to a significant hurricane by then possibly Cat 4. People along the southern tip of Florida and the eastern Florida Coast need to pay attention with this one for now. So stay tuned as Don makes landfall and the possible development of Emily, what could become a major player, but it is to far out to make this one set in stone.

Don Track

Don Track with rain shield

Invest 91L ( possibly Emily)

Invest 91L (Possibly Emily)

Tropical Storm Headed for the Gulf????????????

2011-07-27T06:12:00.003-05:00

Well all signs are pointing that we could have DON on the board sometime today. This system has really intensified over the last 24 hours. As you can see from the spaghetti plots they are mostly in agreement on the track of the system keeping it along the Texas coast anywhere from South Padre Island to Galveston Island. We also not that most models are keeping it below hurricane strength but that can change remember it has been 1047 days since our last US land falling hurricane Ike in 2008. Stay tuned for further developments. Click the title for a IR loop of the system.

New Logo

2011-07-10T21:05:00.001-05:00

What are your opinions on the New Logo? With the counties in the back ground or without?

Hot Day Today with a Few Storms in the Area

2011-07-10T16:05:00.002-05:00

Below are the extremes for Huntsville today, notice the heat index very dangerous today.
High Temperature 91.9 °F at 11:21am
Low Temperature 75.7 °F at 5:33am
High Heat Index 116.6 °F at 12:24pm

As I type this a decent little storm has developed in NW Madison County with torrential rains, vivid lightning and small hail. Although a little heat reprieve do not expect it to last all that long.

Hazardous Weather Outlook For North Alabama Includes Heat Advisories for all of North Alabama

2011-07-10T07:00:00.001-05:00

HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S. AS A RESULT...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO
7 PM CDT TODAY FOR LAUDERDALE...COLBERT...FRANKLIN...LAWRENCE...
LIMESTONE...MADISON...MORGAN...AND CULLMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ALABAMA.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH OR SURPASS 110 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN THE INTENSIFYING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE AREA. LIMIT YOUR TIME OUTDOORS DURING THE AFTERNOON IF AT ALL
POSSIBLE AND BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER. REMAIN IN AIR
CONDITIONED BUILDINGS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE...AND REMEMBER TO CHECK UP
ON FRIENDS AND NEIGHBORS WHO DO NOT HAVE AIR CONDITIONING.

SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDWEEK WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THE
DEVELOP.

2 months 2 weeks later

2011-07-09T17:19:00.003-05:00

I know people have seen these videos over and over again, but you need to see them again. I drove through neighborhoods yesterday and yes some are being rebuilt but some still look as if the storms came through just a few days ago. Help is needed to clean these areas and to help these people effected move on. Yes 2 of these are from 2 different tv stations but once this happen we all became one family. It still brings tears to my eyes to see the damage in these areas.

Isaiah 41:10
Do not fear, for I am with you;
Do not anxiously look about you, for I am your God.
I will strengthen you, surely I will help you,
Surely I will uphold you with My righteous right hand.’

Hot Weekend on Tap, Rain returns by Middle of Next Week

2011-07-09T16:19:00.004-05:00

Today's extremes in Huntsville

High Temperature 92.2 °F at 2:43pm
Low Temperature 73.0 °F at 5:11am
High Heat Index 108.1 °F at 2:58pm

Forecast for the next 7 days

Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

High 96 98 96 95 92 93 90
Low 73 73 73 72 73 71 70
Rain 20% 20% 30% 50% 50% 20% 20%

Heat index values will remain high all week even though the ridge weakens enough to allow a trough or to to push through and give us a decent rain chance at mid week. No organized severe weather is expected and the tropics remain quiet for now.

Starting to watch the Tropics

2011-06-05T07:18:00.002-05:00

Well with Tornado season slowly winding down (man what a season it has been with 5 EF5s this year) we turn our attention to the tropics. While all is sorta quiet right now there is one area that has caught the attention of the NHC. It is located 150 Miles SW OF Jamaica and is moving westward at 5 MPH. As you can see it is not expected to develop into anything over the next 48 hours although heavy rain may cause some flooding concerns in Jamaica and Haiti.

2011-05-04T08:58:00.010-05:00

Well it has been exactly 1 week since North and Central Alabama was decimated by killer tornadoes. I remember it like it was just yesterday. I returned home from work at 6am (with confirmed tornadoes already in the Florence area as well as in Cullman and Arab)and just as a tornado warning is being issued for Madison County, and at that time I was not ready to chase (no gear was ready) so I passed on it which was a good choice since nothing materialized. So I called my two riders for the day and told them the game plan for the day, and as I picked up the first in Madison and headed towards Florence to get the second something caught my eye. I looked out my drivers side window and noticed a huge wall cloud (no warning at this time). I called the second rider and told her that we were on our way and should be there by 10am, well that all changed as the storm I was looking at just went tornado warned for Southern Limestone and Western Madison Counties and since I was still on Highway 72 we turned around and the chase was on. Boy did I mean CHASE this thing was moving at 70mph so we basically kept up with it sorta but never got ahead of it. We did manage to get into some hail but that was about it and soon after that the warning was cancelled. So we turned around and headed to Florence to pick up the rider (near 10:20am). As we arrived in Florence there was a nasty line moving in (nothing tornadic YET) moving to the east at 65mph so once again we were trying to stay out front to be able to see but we were eventually overtaken by tremendous amounts of rain and wind. As we are getting close to the City of Athens spotters report a funnel near Ripley some 10 miles west of Athens headed towards the Tanner area. So we turned down highway 31 and headed south to try and get ahead of it well we did just as we got to Highway 31 and Tanner Crossroads the circulation crosses in front of us (11:33am)and takes out the transformer and we observed some sporadic damage as we drove on thru. In my opinion it is a EF0 or weak EF1 (no survey is complete just yet)

Well as the morning wore on it got a little boring as there were a few tornado warnings up in Tennessee and far NE Madison County where if I am not mistaken a EF2 hit Lincoln and Moore Counties in Tennessee a little out of my target area. I had very high hopes with this system as it was a HIGH risk day, but it just seemed like at the time we were going to miss out again. Temps were in the mid 50s and dew points were low as well so I was wondering if I may have missed my target. We drove south into Cullman County Alabama and got well into the warm sector (temps were in the low to mid 80s at this time (2:30pm) as we are setting in Dodge City (who had no power due to the early morning tornadoes) I notice a nice little storm beginning to strengthen right along the warm front and also watching a decent cell in Walker County as well, we were in the perfect location to intercept either. Well the first cell goes tornado warned as spotters reported a large rotating wall cloud with a descending funnel near the community of Speake, so we let out flying north on interstate 65 by the time the cell gets to us it has weakened into just a picturesque shelf cloud.

Well since we are storm chasers seeing such a beautiful site was not all bad. I then looked at the radar (2:45pm) and the cell I was watching in Walker county had grew into a beast and was bearing down on the city of Cullman so we take off and head towards Morgan Coutny to intercept on the backside. Now at this time (3:10) extensive damage is reported in the town of Cullman and I receive a phone call from Kory Hartman to see if I am on the storm since my GPS is not working correctly. He tells me that ABC3340 has a very large tornado on the ground in the city of Cullman live on their tower cam, and I tell him I am about to intercept on Highway 67 near the Hulaco/Joppa communities. Then about 3:15 we have the beast cross in front of us.

After videoing the tornado for a short while we kicked into rescue mode as the tornado tore thru some houses and mobile homes trapping a few people with debris blocking roads, access to homes. Although no one died at this location as we were there, there were 3 mobile homes that were completely destroyed ans well as 2 well built homes, and there was a local preacher and his wife that lived in one of the mobile homes that was wiped out that were missing for sometime. As of right now I am unaware of them ever being found, I sure hope they have been.

After we were there for a while there was another tornado warning as we got back into the jeep we observed a large rain wrapped tornado cross at almost the same exact spot as the one in the video (it was raining way to hard to hang out the window for video of this one). After an hour or so there numerous rescue units arrived on scene so with everyone at our location in good hands, we headed out to intercept another cell heading into Madison County towards the City of Madison. This tornado happened to be rain wrapped but you can clearly see it cross the highway in front of us. It done very minimal damage as it was over an open field except for knocking over a few power poles and snapping a few trees.

It was only after I called it a day as another tornado hit near my home and I returned to be with my family that I found out about the large tornado that was tearing through Limestone and Madison Counties. (I got on the wrong storm, both looked good but one was the beast). I want to send a prayer up to those who lost there lives as well as to all those affected in anyway. To those that are helping with the recovery in anyway THANK YOU could never be enough to show how much you are appreciated. Stay tuned for updates as it looks quiet for the next couple weeks. More damage pictures are on our facebook page Tennessee Valley Storm Trackers.

Numerous Videos of Tornadoes and aerials of Damage Paths

2011-04-30T06:49:00.004-05:00

Here is a few videos from around North Central Alabama of the Super Outbreak 2s tornadoes and damage. The NWS is finalizing some of their surveys as well, they are as follows. A couple videos are a little large for the page but we will leave them for you all to see.
#1
DEKALB COUNTY
PRELIM RATING OF EF4(MAY INCREASE)
175MPH PATH LENGTH 33 MILES WIDTH 1/2-3/4 MILE
32 PEOPLE KILLED (AT LEAST)
BEGUN IN THE LAKEVIEW
COMMUNITY NORTHEAST OF GERALDINE. THE TORNADO THEN TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD GENERALLY PARALLEL AND JUST EAST OF STATE ROUTE 75
THROUGH FYFFE...RAINSVILLE...AND SYLVANIA.

#2
FRANKLIN AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES
PRELIM EF4
175 MPH PATH LENGTH 39 MILES WIDTH 3/4 MILE
41 PEOPLE KILLED
THE PATH BEGAN AT THE SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTY LINE WITH MARION COUNTY NEAR HACKLEBURG (SEE NWS BIRMINGHAM FOR HACKLBURG INFORMATION)
PHIL CAMPBELL, MT. HOPE, LANGTOWN COMMUNITY NORTH OF MOULTON

#3
CULLMAN/MORGAN (THIS IS THE VIDEO I HAVE BELOW OF THE HULACO TORNADO)
CULLMAN, FAIRVIEW, HULACO
175MPH PATH LENGTH 28MILES WIDTH 1/2 MILE
LONG-TRACK TORNADO WENT SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS CULLMAN COUNTY. SOME LIGHT DAMAGE OCCURRED ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF SMITH LAKE ALONG COUNTY ROAD (CR) 310. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG CR 222 AND
ALONG CR 436 NEAR GRANDVIEW...WHERE SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
OCCURRED TO SEVERAL RESIDENCES AND NUMEROUS LARGE TREES WERE
SNAPPED.

THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TOWN OF CULLMAN
WHERE SOME OF THE WORST DAMAGE OCCURRED JUST NORTHEAST OF HIGHWAY
31 AND 278. SEVERAL SMALL RETAIL BUILDINGS WERE COMPLETELY
DESTROYED ALONG WITH NEAR TOTAL DESTRUCTION OF A LARGE CHURCH. THE
TORNADO CONTINUED ITS TRACK NORTHEAST CROSSING HIGHWAY 157 THEN
CREATING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 69 BETWEEN SIMCOE AND
PLEASANT VIEW. JUST NORTH OF FAIRVIEW ALONG CR 1559 AND CR
1564...TWO HOMES WERE DESTROYED WITH SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF THE
HOMES NOT FOUND. FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG CR 1589...MAJOR STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE OCCURRED TO SEVERAL OLD (EARLY 1900S) HOMES AND NUMEROUS
HARDWOOD TREES WERE DEBARKED. OUTSIDE OF THE CITY OF CULLMAN...
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED IN A 1/4-1/2 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 69...BETWEEN FAIRVIEW AND THE CULLMAN/MORGAN COUNTY LINE.

THIS TORNADO CONTINUED INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST MORGAN COUNTY WHERE
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED AROUND THE HULACO COMMUNITY.

Hulaco tornado in Morgan county Alabama. This is the same tornado that hit the city of Cullman moments earlier

Tuscaloosa tornado from Severe Studios Chaser John Brown

Websters Chapel Near Piedmont

Blountsville Tornado

Calhoun County tornado near Ohatchee

Cordova Tornado (Large Multi Vortex)

Cordova damage aerials from ABC3340

Cullman damage aerials from abc3340

Hackleburg damage aerials part 1 from abc3340

Hackleburg damage part 2

Pratt City (Birmingahm Metro)from skylink 3340(possibly EF5)

Concord/Pleasant Grove (concord was hit by the April 8th 98 F5)

Tuscaloos damage aerials 1-4

Wednesday Severe Potential Update!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2011-04-25T06:09:00.007-05:00

The SPC has issued their day three convective outlook(Wednesday),and they already have much of North Alabama under a moderate risk. It looks like all of the ingredients will be there for this to be a potential tornado outbreak much like the one on April 15th across South Alabama.A surface low will form north of Memphis, which will give very favorable low level shear, and it looks like the capping inversion should break by mid-afternoon sometime around 2-4pm (earlier than that across North Mississippi) with scattered supercells forming over North and Central Alabama, which will have potential for large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes. Based on the forecast parameters, a few strong, long track tornadoes will be possible Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. But we must look at Tuesday first as you can see from the SPC outlook has us under a 30% probability which is still in the slight criteria. While we will most likely see a squall line push in during the pre dawn hours on Tuesday do not expect it to stabilize us to much as the risk is for tomorrow afternoon. Our BIG weather day still will be on Wednesday, as the Supercell parameter, STP, and Severe Hail parameters are near Maxed out. Make sure your NOAA weather radio handy over the next 2 days. Now lets take this with a grain of salt as well because on the 15th the SPC started with a MDT risk over much of North Alabama as well and the warm front did not progress to the north and all of the severe weather was to our South, so we will make our changes accordingly. Stay tuned for our chase and stream details over the next 24 hours.

Tuesday severe probability

Tuesday Outlook

Wednesday Outlook

Wednesday Probabilities

GFS SB Cape 1pm Wednesday

NAM SB Cape 1pm Wednesday

3km SRH 1pm Wednesday

3km EHI 1pm Wednesday

Significant Hail 4pm Wednesday

STP 1pm Wednesday

STP New Algorythm 1pm Wednesday

Significant Severe 4pm Wednesday

Supercell Composite 1pm Wednesday

Supercell Composite 4pm Wednesday

Wednesday Severe Potential Update!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2011-04-24T15:08:00.004-05:00

Well it looks as if a significant severe outbreak is about to be unleashed across the deep south. As you can see from the model outputs below the GFS and the NAM are not in total agreement on this system so it bares to watch to see who wins out. The NAM is pointing towards another potential tornado outbreak South of highway 278 in Alabama. The GFS as you can see has the bulk of the energy across north Alabama with Cape values near 2000jk/g, and the EHI and SRH numbers are off the charts. The only run of the NAM that is in favor of North Alabama getting in on the action is the STP well over 5 units across North Alabama. So stay tuned as all modes of severe weather is possible including very large hail as you can see from the Severe Hail Parameter output below. We will be out streaming live all afternoon on Wednesday so stay tuned for stream details.

Significant Severe Potential

Significant Hail Parameter 21z Wednesday

NAM SB Cape 18z Wednesday

GFS Sb Cape 18z Wednesday

GFS Cap Strength 18z Wednesday

Supercell Composite 18z Wednesday

STP New Algorithm

STP 18z Wednesday

SRH 18z Wednesday

EHI 18z Wednesday

Ms/Ala tornado confirmation update

2011-04-18T08:05:00.006-05:00

Well the NWS is going to be heading out again on Monday to survey additional areas for possible tornado damage in Mississippi and Alabama. We are still awaiting the survey on the Tuscaloosa tornado as well. Below are the list of the confirmed tornadoes and their sizes. 1 EF3, 3 EF2s,6 EF1s, and 2 EF0 in Alabama so far. This list will for sure go up with at least additional EF2s in Tuscaloosa, and possible EF3s in Marengo and Autauga Counties. In Mississippi 2 EF3s, 1 EF2, 4 EF1s, and 1 EF0s so far.

Alabama Outbreak

GAINESTOWN, ALABAMA (SOUTHERN CLARKE COUNTY)
EF2

TUNNEL SPRINGS/OLD TEXAS AREA NE MONROE COUNTY
EF3

FORREST HOME NW BUTLER COUNTY
EF0

SHERLING LAKE AREA N BUTLER COUNTY

EF1

Geiger (Sumter)
EF-2
135 mph
8.6 miles long
1 mile wide

Cuba (Sumter)
EF-2
115 mph
8.9 miles long
200 yards wide

Alabaster (Shelby)
EF-0
70 mph
1.36 miles long
50 yards wide

Wilsonville (Shelby)
EF-1
85-90 mph
4.25 miles long
100 yards wide

Paul M. Grist State Park (Dallas)
EF-1
90 mph
0.1 miles long
75 yards wide

Marion Junction (Dallas)
EF-1
90 mph
0.2 miles long
100 yards wide

Selma (Dallas)
EF-1
90 mph
0.8 miles long
100 yards wide

Mulberry (Autauga)
EF-1
90 mph
2.0 miles long
300 yards wide

Mississippi Outbreak

Hinds County (Clinton/Jackson)
4.5 SW Clinton to 2 SE Ridgeland 10:51 am -
11:17 am EF-3 Tornado
140 mph 10 injuries 17 mi 3/10 mi

Rankin County
1.5 SW Sand Hill to 5 SW Ludlow 11:43 am -
11:53 am EF-1 Tornado
95 mph none 7.5 mi 200 yds

Scott/Leake counties
2 S Ludlow to 1.5 NW Lena 11:58 am -
12:07 pm EF-1 Tornado
100 mph none 6.5 mi 200 yds

Neshoba/Kemper counties
3.5 ESE Tucker to 6.5 E Scooba 12:53 pm -
1:45 pm EF-3 Tornado
140 mph at least 5 injuries 38.5 mi 3/4 mi

Rankin/Smith counties
2 SE Puckett to 5 E Puckett 1:47 pm -
1:52 pm EF-1 Tornado
90 mph none 3.7 mi 100 yds

Attala County
1 SW Possumneck to 2 E Possumneck 2:22 pm -
2:25 pm EF-2 Tornado
120 mph 2 injuries 3 mi 200 yds

Smith/Scott/Newton counties
6 NNE Pineville to 7 SW Newton 2:23 pm -
2:34 pm EF-1 Tornado
100 mph none 6.7 mi 150 yds

Attala County
3 E Hesterville to 6 NW Ethel 2:33 pm -
2:38 pm EF-0 Tornado
75 mph none 4 mi 75 yds

Whoops SPC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2011-04-16T05:59:00.005-05:00

Well let me start by saying that in my opinion the SPC blew it on Friday. They blew it in 2 ways, 1) by issuing a slight/mdt risk for portions of North Alabama. 2) by issuing a MDT risk instead of a HIGH risk for Central and Southern Ala with 57 tornado reports (some will be multiple) but you get the Idea.

Now I question myself "did I miss the biggest tornado outbreak of the year. To date Yes but for the seasons, it is possible. Now I did not miss it due to not chasing I just chased in the wrong area due to bad advice from professionals that get paid to give weather advice. I was constantly told that we would still see supercells after the morning rains and the sun came out. Development across North Alabama as the front pushed eastward was to be a given. WRONG, because when I was told this I was licking my chops because if I could save a little gas ($3.80 per gallon) and chase local and still get some decent storms. Now I am not the least bit miffed that I did not get anything yesterday, because I chose to chase north Alabama although it was on bad advice. Yesterday the SPC did not stand for (STORM PREDICTION CENTER) IT STOOD FOR (SORRY POOR CALCULATIONS). Now I do not fault the locals on TV because they basically go by the SPC forecasts as well. But I will say this THIS IS THE LAST TIME I LISTEN TO OTHERS. Now to the Slight/MDT Risk for North Alabama the risks should have been dropped after the early morning rains. So if I had to compare the way the SPC handled the event I would compare it to the Air Traffic Controllers that have been falling asleep in the towers at these major airports. Congrats to friends of mine Brett Adair on the intercepts he got yesterday and to fellow Tennessee Valley Storm Tracker David Ruffini on getting his first wedge tornado in Tuscaloosa His photo is below and you can follow him and see his video on facebook.com/Severe Troposphere. You can follow Brett and see his video from Friday at Alabamastormtrackers.com. Thanks to all who follow us, and we will see you on the next storm.

Here We Go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2011-04-14T21:19:00.006-05:00

Well as of right now the SPC maintains the moderate risk of severe weather for the western two-thirds of North and Central Alabama, and the eastern half of Mississippi that they issued earlier today. The outlook suggests a 45 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any given point within that moderate risk. We are awaiting to see if the SPC will upgrade any portion of the Moderate risk to a HIGH risk or at the least a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watch. Notice the output models of the upper Low and the Surface Low are vertically stacked right over Wichita Ks. All modes of severe weather will be in play for North Alabama. The Squall line as you can see will be right on the state line around 3pm and the in the Huntsville Metro by 7 pm. Along this line the main threat will be very powerful winds, large hail, dangerous lightning, and isolated tornadoes. Any storm that develops ahead of this line will have the potential to rotate and produce tornadoes. Stay tuned as this severe weather outbreak begins to unfold.
3pm

7pm

Friday Outlook

Outlook probabilities

Upper Low located near Wichita Ks

Surface Low near Wichita Ks.

STP 7pm Friday

0-3km SRH 7pm Friday

RPM SB Cape 7pm Friday

GFS SB Cape 7pm Friday

Severe Wx On The Way Friday!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2011-04-13T16:32:00.004-05:00

OK it is now looking more and more likely that we will have a significant severe weather event unfolding across portions of Alabama on Friday afternoon into the overnight hours. We are expecting Severe Thunderstorms maybe even Tornadic Supercells to develop by mid to late afternoon on Friday as they form ahead of a strong cold front that will push through the state early Saturday morning. While the GFS and the Euro models are beginning to come into agreement the outlier is the NAM as it is a little slower and is suggesting 2 rounds of severe weather, one in the afternoon and one overnight Friday. All modes of severe weather will be possible whether it be within the discreet supercells that are forecast to develop ahead of the line across central and East Mississippi and into West And NW Alabama. Then again with the main QLCS line as it moves in although the main threat with the line will be damaging straight line winds, large hail, deadly lightning, and torrential rainfall. Some areas could see locally 2" of rainfall with heavier amounts with the stronger storms. Stay tuned for updates as this event really starts to unfold. Remember to follow us on twitter by clicking the link on the right side of the page as well as on facebook. We will be going live sometime during the day on Friday.

RPM 3pm Friday

RPM 7pm Friday

RPM 1am Saturday

3km EHI 7pm Friday

NAM SB Cape 7pm Friday

GFS SB Cape 7pm Friday

3km SRH 7pm Friday

STP 7pm Friday

More Severe Wx On The Way!!!

2011-04-13T05:55:00.003-05:00

Well as another severe weather event unfolds across the plains on Thursday (already a moderate risk) we will have to watch it closely. As you can see the SPC has all of Alabama in a slight risk on Friday, but if you will also notice the probabilities are at 30% hatched so it very well could be upgraded to a moderate risk for our area again. Once again the models have trended slower and it looks like the main time frame will be from 1pm Friday afternoon in NW Ala/1am Sat Morning into NE Ala. With it coming in that late in the afternoon and evening our tornado threat does not look impressively high, as it looks like we will be dealing with a squall line event much like this past Monday with straight line winds the primary threat, although hail and isolated tornadoes along the line cannot be ruled out. A stacked low (from the surface to 20,000 feet) will be near Kansas City by midday, and convection will break out in the warm sector to the south during the morning hours over parts of the ArkLaTex region and into Mississippi then move into Alabama later in the day. Stay tuned as this event is beginning to take shape.

Thursday Convective Outlook

Friday Convective Outlook

Friday Probability

Thursday Probability

EHI 7pm Friday

GFS SB Cape 7pm Friday

NAM SB Cape 7pm Friday

SRH 7pm Friday

Front Position 1 am Friday

Another Look At The Next System

2011-04-10T13:09:00.002-05:00

SPC has much of Mississippi, the northern two-thirds of Alabama and Middle Tennessee within a slight risk area for tomorrow. The main threat appears to be damaging wind with the squall line. However, should discrete cells develop ahead of the line as the atmosphere heats and destabilizes, we could see a potential for isolated tornadoes. Looks as if CAPE values should rise to between 750-1500 joules/kg over North and Central Alabama ahead of the front making it somewhat unstable.Once again the main threats look to be damaging winds, hail, and lightning. Stay tuned for later updates.

The Day That Set Off My Career!!!!!

2011-04-08T07:59:00.003-05:00

As most of my friends may know on April 8th 1998 my life changed forever. I was a local volunteer firefighter in Walker County Alabama for the past 5 years. I knew the chances for severe weather that day were high but I did not expect what was to come. Around 7pm a monster supercell Thunderstorm crossed into Alabama from Mississippi and entered Pickens County Ala. This beast would drop The tornado first just south of Gordo and it crossed into Tuscaloosa County to near Northport (17 mile later) and lifted, but the monster was not finished. It then re intensified again and dropped the tornado again in far eastern Tuscaloosa County and tore into Jefferson County (some 30 miles or so)and into at least 9 Birmingham suburbs and then lifted again just before it reached the Metro Birmingham. The storm would then again drop a tornado in St Clair County. My life was changed when I went to the Oak Grove/Concord areas to assist with search and rescue efforts. Fire departments from all over where dispatched to assist as the Concord fire department (they protect the Oak Grove, Concord, and Rock Creek areas) had 2 stations completely destroyed. Now like I said I had been a firefighter for 5 years up til then and I had seen my share of death and destruction, but this was unreal. when you are walking through the pitch black night with the only light you have is from what seems to be a dim flashlight and the frequent flashes of lightning overhead and you hear people screaming for help and you cannot find them you feel totally helpless. Well that was me, small children crying because of their injuries or the fact that they cannot find their parents, or the fact you find someone underneath a wall of debris and you keep the hope that once you remove the pile they will be ok but they are not. I saw so much death and destruction that night I vowed to try and make a difference although it will be a small one, but a difference non the less. I had always been fascinated with storms and being on the fire department I had been spotting for 5 years, but I wanted to do more. So with the next big event I would begin my chasing career to try and help get more accurate ground truth to the NWS offices. So one week later I saw a F5 in Lawrence County Tennessee. Since then I have seen many extreme storms and I would like to think that my reports, pictures, and video will continue to help save lives. 34 people were killed in Alabama 13 years ago today and my thoughts and prayers are with them and their families as it they are every year on this day. The video below is from ABC 3340s Bill Castle about that night and the map is the touchdowns from this storm, can you imagine if it had stayed on the ground the entire time.

Dust foot kicked up from a small Microburst!!!!!

2011-04-05T09:23:00.002-05:00

After further determination I believe the dust being kicked up was caused by a small Microburst out at the Huntsville International Airport yesterday. I went back into my chase logs and found that I noted a 57mph gust at 3:46pm. A little while later a spotter reported a tornado/funnel cloud near Memorial Parkway near the Parkway place mall. I Have also noticed that I am not the only person to view the dust foot so that does help me to verify my latest thinking. Stay tuned as it looks like we may see some more storms in the form off another squall line that could push into North Alabama Sunday night or Monday morning. The SPC has the NW Alabama (Day 6) risk of severe weather for late Sunday night. Still too early to be specific with the timing on this. Other model runs have shown it to be a daytime event Monday so we will have to see so stay tuned.

Few Snapshots From Today

2011-04-04T19:04:00.002-05:00

Monday Severe Threat Update!!!!!

2011-04-03T08:28:00.004-05:00

Well as some parameters do not look as impressive for tornadoes on Monday across the North Alabama area TWC has their TorCon at 5 and at a 7 for North Mississippi on Monday so apparently they are seeing something the rest of us do not. Will there be tornado warnings? I would almost guarantee it, but will it be an outbreak I do not think so. As you can see from the sounding from BMX and HSV it looks as if we will see some decent thunderstorm activity tomorrow afternoon. The SRH is slowly trying to creep back in here and if that happens the chance of the storms to rotate will go up, but it still looks as if the best shear will be out to our west and that is where I feel the better chance for tornadoes will occur. We will be very unstable with SB cape values pushing over 2500j/kg tomorrow afternoon. I have added a different type of output with this post. I have added the VGP (Vorticity Generation Potential). The EHI looks real suspect in parts of West Alabama tomorrow afternoon as well, so if we do have some rotating thunderstorms with tornadic potential I would look here first. So stay tuned as we will have our final tweek and target information tomorrow am.
STP 4pm Monday

Dewpoints 5pm Monday

VGP 1pm Monday

Sounding BMX 1pm Monday

HSV Sounding 1pm Monday
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HSV Hodograph 1pm Monday

SRH 1pm Monday

SihHail 4pm Monday

SB Cape 5pm Monday

Another look at SB Cape 1pm Monday

EHI 1pm Monday

Monday Severe Threat Update!!!!!

2011-04-02T09:05:00.008-05:00

The Tennessee Valley Storm Trackers will be invading North Mississippi on Monday afternoon as the system begins to fire and follow it back east into North Alabama so stay tuned.
Things are beginning to take shape for a substantial severe weather outbreak across the deep south on Monday. The SPC has their standard Slight Risk (which it looks like it will be upgraded to at least Moderate.) Although the upper support will not be favorable for a significant tornado outbreak there will be a few tornadoes across the area I am sure. The best SB Cape values still remain over North Mississippi during the afternoon hours on Monday.If you notice from the outputs below all of North Alabama will be in a decent battle zone as the front gets closer with the STP over 4 units and the Supercell composite as well as the SigSvr models very high. Also the chance of some very large hail is very possible along the line and with any cells that form ahead of the line. This is the HWO (Hazardous Weather Outlook) From Huntsville NWS. As you can see they are concerned about an afternoon threat here across North Alabama instead of a mainly overnight event as they fell the front will push through late Monday evening.

THE THREAT FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE MONDAY EVENING.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA...AND MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

LATEST INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS POTENT STORM SYSTEM. THIS INCLUDES LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS
AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

Stay tuned to local media as well as any other form of weather information on this developing storm system. Our chase details will be posted by late Sunday evening.

Day 3 outlook (Monday)

Day 3 probabilities

1km SRH 1pm Monday

1km SRH 7pm Monday

SB Cape7pm Monday

SB Cape 1pm Monday

SIG Svr 7pm Monday

STP (significant tornado parameter) 7pm Monday

STP 1pm Monday

Supercell Composite 7pm Monday

Significant Hail 7pm Monday

Monday Severe Threat Update!!!!!

2011-04-01T16:32:00.005-05:00

Well the 12Z model runs are now just a little faster with our system on Monday, no looking like the the main window for severe weather will come from 8:00pm Monday through 3:00am on Tuesday. The GFS and the Euro both are showing the primary surface low well to the north,almost into Canada, meaning the primary threat will come from a QLCS (squall line) and damaging straight line winds. There is enough shear for an isolated tornado or two, especially in the cells that can break out ahead of the main line as well in the main line itself. But, with the Helicity values backing off it sure looks like the main threat will come from straight line winds as opposed to a tornado outbreak. We do notice the STP, SigSvr, and Supercell composite (all NAM products) are showing some decent numbers with the STP at 4-5units. So it is a wait and see thing right now, but severe weather is a given on Monday, just nailing down a time is tough with each model runs changing so stay tuned.

Euro 1am Tuesday

GFS 1am Tuesday

STP 7pm Monday

Supercell Composite 7pm Monday

0-1km SRH 7pm Monday

EHI 7pm Monday

SigSvr 7pm Monday

Severe Monday Night On The Way?????

2011-04-01T08:18:00.004-05:00

Well now it is looking like our main window for severe storms will be from around 11pm Monday in NW Ala thru 7am Tuesday. Now all of this may change but most are going with it as the GFS and the Euro are pretty much in agreement on timing. Notice below on the model outputs that the SB Cape via the GFS is pretty much non existent, but the GFS is also painting a high temp of 80-82F and if that happens our Cape values will go up.SO do not buy to much into these runs just yet. Let me say this "THERE IS GOING TO BE SEVERE WEATHER SOMETIME MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA" Most times during overnight events like this the activity to the west evolves into a QLCS (squall line) with the main threat coming from straight line winds, but when helicity values are very high like they are expected to be Monday night and a few tornadoes will be possible as well, in cells ahead of and in the main line itself.So all modes of severe weather will be a concern for us on Monday night. Most times during the over night and pre-dawn hour events our atmosphere usually will stabilize a little,but the upper air dynamics with this system should keep the severe weather threat going pretty much all night long like we have seen on Super Tuesday 2008 when 2 EF4s hit north Alabama after midnight.
Stay tuned as this storm system continues to unfold. We will start looking at what the NAM is bringing to the table tomorrow as it has been a little more reliable during major severe weather events for us.

500mb Vortmax 1am Tuesday

Euro model 1am Tuesday

GFS 1am Tuesday

0-1km SRH 1am Tuesday

SB Cape 1am Tuesday

Major Severe Weather On the Way For Alabama Early Next Week!!!!!!!!

2011-03-31T07:10:00.002-05:00

Well after a couple of low end moderate risks for severe weather it looks as if Mother Nature is fixing to really unleash her fury on us all across the deep south. Below are some model outputs for over night Monday into Tuesday morning. At this time it looks as if this will be an over night event which could be disastrous as this is looking more and more like a classic April severe weather/TORNADO outbreak. The last couple events we have had were not classic just that the ingredients were there for some type of severe weather to occur. Timing right now is still up in the air but for now we will leave it as is. The Helicity values are off the charts with this one ( so rotating updrafts will be well supported) and looks like or SB Cape will be pushing 1750-2000 J/kg. The NAM (North American Mesoscale)and the GFS (Global Forecast System) is painting high temps on Monday between 83F-87F. If this happens we will be a ticking time bomb for lat in the day Monday. With temps that high it will remain very unstable during the overnight hours (sorta like the Super Tuesday Outbreak 2008). Stay tuned as I will post more in depth detail as the system gets closer as it is still 5 days away and has time for change.

SPC Outlooks for early next week

500mb Vortmax Midnight Monday

GFS Midnight Monday

EHI 1am Tuesday

SRH 1am Tuesday

Cold Finish To March Then We Are Watching Next Week!!!!!

2011-03-30T09:14:00.005-05:00

Looking at Thursday the 540 line creeps all the way down to near Cullman, and with that we may not get out of the upper 40s for highs on Thursday.

I will say we should reach a high of 49F Thursday, then back up into the mid 50s on Friday. The weekend looks wonderful right now with highs back into the 70s and lows in the 40s. Now we turn to our next system early next week.
We are starting to watch a system heading our way that should arrive on either Monday night or Tuesday depending on which model you trust. As you can see below the GFS has the system coming in on Monday night and the European has it coming in on Tuesday afternoon and evening. So non the less we will more than likely see some type of severe weather on Monday night or Tuesday. I will post more on the parameters of this system as the weekend comes and we get a better handle on it so stay tuned.
GFS valid Monday Night

Euro valid Tuesday 7pm

JUST MY OPINION ON THIS WHOLE THING!!!!!!!

2011-03-28T17:50:00.008-05:00

OK THIS IS GOING TO BE ALL IN CAPS BECAUSE IT MAKES ME WANT TO SCREAM. ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE NWS OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM RECEIVED A REPORT OF A LARGE WEDGE TORNADO ON THE GROUND. HERE IS THE WORDING ON IT FROM THE NWS:Dangerous Tornado Approaching Birmingham AT 848 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CARDIFF…OR 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GARDENDALE…MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
THIS WAS A FALSE REPORT (1 FOR THE DAY) AND WHOM EVER CALLED THIS REPORT IN USED THE NAME OF A GOOD FRIEND OF MINE AS WELL AS AN OUTSTANDING STORM CHASER AND SPOTTER BRETT ADAIR. BRETT HAS BEEN CHASING LONG ENOUGH THAT HE KNOWS WHEN TO CALL IN AND WHAT TO CALL IN. I AM APPALLED AT THE PERSON THAT CALLED THIS IN FOR MULTIPLE REASONS.
1) YOU CALLED IN A LARGE TORNADO ON THE GROUND AND THE NWS OFFICES TAKE A REPORT LIKE THIS SERIOUSLY ESPECIALLY SINCE THE STORM WAS BEARING DOWN ON A MAJOR METRO CITY LIKE BIRMINGHAM.
YOU HAVE MADE A MOCKERY OUT OF SPOTTERS REPORTING STORMS AND DAMAGE. WITHOUT SPOTTERS ON THE GROUND REPORTING THE TRUTH THE NWS OFFICES THEN KNOW HOW TO PROPERLY WARN THE CITIZENS OF ANY CITY. IF MORE PEOPLE LIKE YOU (THE PERSON THAT CALLED IN THE FALSE REPORT) THE NWS AND THE PEOPLE OF ANY CITY THAT YOU ARE TRYING TO REPORT FOR WILL NOT TAKE YOU SERIOUS. YOU MAY ACTUALLY HAVE A TORNADO ONE DAY AND TRY TO REPORT IT AND NO ONE WILL BELIEVE YOU.
2) YOU HAVE DESTROYED THE REPUTATION OF BRETT ADAIR RIGHT NOW. HIS NAME HAS BEEN DRUG THRU THE MUD WITH THIS AND IT IS NOT HIS FAULT. YOU WILL BE FOUND OUT AND ONCE YOU ARE YOU WILL BE DEALT WITH IN AN ACCORDINGLY MANNER.
3)NOW TO ALL THE MEDIA THAT HAS TRASHED HIM AS WELL YOU NEED TO GROW UP AND STOP ACTING LIKE YOU ARE BACK IN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AND BLAMING SOMEONE FOR STEALING YOUR MILK BECAUSE JOBOB SAID THAT OLE WHATS HIS NAME TOOK IT WITH OUT GOING TO THE SOURSE OR THE ACCUSED. ONCE THIS IS ALL RESOLVED I HOPE THAT EACH ONE OF YOU (YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE AND WHAT STATION YOU ARE AFFILIATED WITH) HAVE THE TESTICULAR FORTITUDE TO MAN UP AND HAVE BRET ON TV AND SHAKE HIS HAND AND SAY I AM SORRY. HECK EVEN THAT WILL NOT HEAL THE EMOTIONAL SCARS HE HAS NOW ENDURED. BRETT LIKE MYSELF SELL VIDEO OF MOTHER NATURES WORST STORMS AND WITH YOU (MEDIA GUYS) DRAGGING HIS NAME THRU THE MUD HE CANNOT SELL A GLASS OF COLD WATER TO SOMEONE THAT JUST ATE A JAR OF JALAPENOS. THE TRUTH WILL COME OUT AND WHEN IT DOES MAN UP. BRETT BUDDY I HAVE YOUR BACK ON THIS ONE.

Saturday Severe Weather Is Looking More And More Likely!!!

2011-03-25T07:53:00.003-05:00

Well here we go our FIRST REAL outbreak is building in for Saturday Afternoon across North Alabama.The SPC has most all of North and Central Alabama in a standard SLIGHT risk on Saturday, and if you will notice they also have it at 30% hatched so what does that mean. That means you can expect an upgrade to at least a MODERATE risk sometime during the early morning hours tomorrow for tomorrow afternoon. As you can see from the 10am RPM model it looks like the warm front should be near U.S. 278 in Cullman County, and most of the rain looks to be along and north of that front. The greater tornado threat in Alabama looks like it would be over the Tennessee Valley close to that surface front where the surface winds will be more backed around to the southeast, but as you can see from the model outputs below some of the parameters are very significant all the way down to Birmingham even though most of the forecast soundings really show a unidirectional type flow for the I-20 corridor. These parameters look to really max out around midnight, so it looks like it is going to be a long night so stay tuned and keep your NOAA weather radio close by.

Outlook for Saturday afternoon and evening

Probabilities for severe wx on Saturday afternoon and evening

RPM valid 10 am Saturday

RM valid 3pm Saturday

STP Saturday over night Saturday

1km SRH valid over night Saturday

RPM Cape Values 7pm Saturday

Harris SB Cape Values 7pm Saturday

Saturday Severe Weather Update!!!!!!

2011-03-24T17:19:00.003-05:00

Well it is looking more and more likely that a potential severe weather outbreak could unfold late Saturday afternoon and evening. Below are a few model outputs for Saturday night. The SB Cape RPM model is pushing 2000 j/kg, and the 1k SRH is very impressive as well. STP values(significant tornado parameter)from the NAM are over 7 units, which is extremely significant. Most times in Alabama we see STP values near 1-3 units which is also significant in its own right. So the slight risk the SPC has us under could very well be upgraded later to at least a moderate risk (which is my thinking not official yet). If we see some sunshine early Saturday, we might reach close to 80F in spots Saturday afternoon, adding to the instability and to what could be a problem.And all models have now trended to a dry Monday, yesterday it looked wet and stormy now dry. Stay tuned for updates and chase information. Remember you can see my stream live by clicking the link on the right of the page or by going to severestudios.com and clicking the live storm chasing tab at the top of the page.

Supercell composite valid 10pm Saturday

STP 10pm Saturday Night

RPM SB Cape valid 7pm Saturday

Severe Chances going Up!!!

2011-03-24T07:53:00.003-05:00

Outlook for Saturday

1km SRH Saturday

Few tornado warnings last night but nothing reported across north Alabama. Now we turn to the weekend, A warm front will move northward through Alabama late Friday night into Saturday. We may see the sun for a bit on Saturday, this will warm us well into the mid 70s and the instability will continue to increase. SB CAPE values rise to near 1,500-1,700 j/kg, and Helicity values high enough to support rotating updrafts it looks like thunderstorms will begin to develop in scattered variety, and they will have a chance of being strong to severe. With that said the SPC has now put much of North Alabama in a standard “slight risk” for severe weather Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Big Time Warmth!!!

2011-03-19T08:45:00.002-05:00

Well I sure hope everyone has enjoyed the BEAUTIFUL weather we have had over spring break this year. Well all good things must come to an end (I am talking about spring break)while we will mention a small chance of a shower today and tomorrow (less than 20% both days) the temps will stay rather warm in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid to upper 50s through next Wednesday.We will need to watch out for a CAD (cold air damming) effect Sunday for our far eastern counties. This does not mean we will see brutally cold temps just while we may have 81F in the Shoals areas like Mentone and Fort Payne could just see upper 60s. I do not really see it happening but it is possible. Our next real chance of rain comes next Thursday as a strong system comes through Wednesday night and highs towards the end of next week will be in the low to mid 60s.

Tonight: As most of you know we have an astronomical phenomenon known as a supermoon that will show itself right after sunset as the moon begins to rise. At this time it looks as we here across North Alabama may be left out of the viewing because clouds will be on the increase all day. Right now we are at about 70% of NONE VISIBILITY for this tonight.

Long Range: It looks like no major severe weather threats for North Alabama or Southern Tennessee until the around the last day of March. So could we go out like a lamb or lion, only time will tell. The NAO takes a big dip into the negative right behind the powerful system that is on the boards for the 30th and 31st days of March. So does this mean we will see another big time freeze? It is very possible just how severe is still on the table for debate.

Until then enjoy the weather and your weekend, as we will start putting these updates out every morning and even more frequently as severe weather approaches.

Wet and Wild Wednesday

2011-03-09T12:52:00.003-06:00

Radar capture at the time the tornado was reported on the ground (pretty cool)

Damage in Food World in Theodore Al

More from Food World in Theodore

Well as we had to deal with flooding rains across North Alabama 2.70" at my home in Madison, our neighbors along the coast had the Severe weather I mentioned on facebook yesterday when I was afraid Gulf Coast Convection would limit our storm development. The NWS in Mobile is out surveying damage from tornadoes that raked across South Alabama early this morning. The pictures below are from Theodore Alabama at a Food World Taken by Jim Loznicka AKA @jimwxgator on twitter and the Radar Image is from GR2 Analyst at the time the tornado was reported on the ground in Theodore. More to come once all surveys are complete.

More Severe Wx On The Way!!!

2011-03-07T15:44:00.002-06:00

Well here we go again more severe weather on the way to the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday. The RPM model is slower, suggesting the storms will impact the state mainly in the 6:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.( in an earlier facebook post it was around the 10am time frame for the squall line to be impacting areas of North Alabama). While it still looks as if this is going to be another QLCS event we can still get a spin up tornado or two along the line somewhere. The SRH is high enough to support a rotating updraft if they form and the NAM and GFS is showing a little SB Cape between 650-800j/kg Wednesday afternoon. With the system slowing down the atmosphere will have a little more time to become unstable so we will watch it closely. Right now the STP is between 1-3 units for our area on Wednesday so we are not expecting a tornado outbreak.We may see some more big time rains with this system as you can see from the QPF and the RPM charts below. We just had some areas recieve 2-3" with the last system and we could see that again with this one as well. Some creeks and river are at or just below flood stage right now so another 2-3"rain event could have some major flooding issues in parts of the Valley. Make sure to have a good source of weather information over the next couple days.

QPF valid thru Thursday

RPM rainfall estimates thru Thursday

RPM valid 2pm Wednesday

1km SRH 12z Wednesday

ML CAPE Noon Wednesday

SB CAPE Noon Wednesday

Stormy Day!!!!

2011-02-28T17:12:00.007-06:00

Well just as I was about to call it quits today as it seemed the CAP was to strong, BAM it broke with a vengeance. I came across this damage in Limestone County as a Severe Thunderstorm was rolling through. The storm had history of 65mph winds in the Shoals so it was no surprise to find more damage along they way. The CAP held strong up until just after the noon hour and then storms began to fire all across North Central Alabama. As of right now no confirmed tornadoes in Alabama but that may change after the NWS survey teams go out on Tuesday to look at damage. Stay tuned as more info from the NWS comes in.

Severe Monday On The Way!!!!

2011-02-27T09:09:00.004-06:00

Ok here we go. As most of you may know the SPC has a moderate Risk for severe weather for portions of Arkansas, West Tenn, West Kentucky,Southern Illinois, and the Boot Heel of Missouri for the 2nd time is less than a week. This is going to be a dangerous situation as this system is not expected to unfold until after dark. Then as the system progresses eastward the SPC has a large area defined in a slight risk for Monday. Yes there is a chance it may be upgraded to a Moderate Risk by tomorrow morning as well, but we will have to wait and see. A squall line into the northwest corner of Alabama around sunrise Monday and push eastward throughout the day. Severe weather parameters will be in place, The Helicity values look to be around 150 to 300, CAPE values are around 1000 and surface dews approaching between 65-70 degrees. Although these values are not overly impressive they are more impressive than the January 21 2010 event that dropped the tornado in Huntsville.
Helicity values are respectable, so an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. We could see tornado watches come out for parts of Alabama beginning in the early morning hours and lasting much of the day. We are not expecting a whole lot of rain with this system at all maybe 1" total in some areas. Stay tuned for further updates and my chase plans tomorrow.

(Below is a look back at the CAPE values during that event)
Jan 21 2010

1km Helicity 12z Monday

SB Cape 18z Monday

12z Monday SigSvr

12z Monday STP Effective

STP Fixed 12z Monday

Supercell Composite 12z Monday

Round 2 on Sunday Round 3 on Monday!!!!!!!!

2011-02-26T15:54:00.004-06:00

Well Round 2 and then I guess you could call it Round 3 is on the way to parts of the deep south. There is a cold front that is draped across the gulf coast today and that will start to lift to the north as a warm front bringing temps back into the low to mid 70s on Sunday. Not really expecting much in the way of rain during the day on Sunday an outside sprinkle is possible but not likely. We are watching a trough as it begins to progress eastward and triggers a decent severe weather event across portions of the Ozarks. As the system moves eastward it should weaken a little but with that said it will be responsible for generating conditions favorable for severe weather, and the SPC has seen that and issued their standard risk (SLIGHT)for Monday across a good portion of Central and North Alabama. While this looks to be a QLCS event there is also some evidence that we might see embedded supercells with the potential for isolated tornadoes. The morning run of the GFS slows our system down a little bit more, pushing the bulk of the activity into the afternoon hours. This timing could spell more trouble, but still instability values are not very high less than 500j/kj (but we have had large tornadoes with less.) The Helicity values are near perfect for sustaining rotating updrafts if they form. The STP, SigSvr, SigHail, and supercell composites are all very impressive as well. This is a system that needs to be watched closely as it draws closer. So stay tuned for updates.

Sunday MDT Risk

Monday SLIGHT risk

12z Monday Significant Hail Parameter

12z Monday Significant Severe Parameter

12z Monday Significant Tornado Parameter

12z Monday Supercell Composite

12z Monday SB Cape

12z Monday ML Cape

3km Helicity 12z Monday

1km Helicity 12z Monday

Tornadoes Confirmed From Thursday Nigths Storms In Louisiana, Mississippi And Alabama

2011-02-26T08:22:00.003-06:00

Hackleburg Alabama

ON THE EVENING OF THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 24TH, A SQUALL LINE PASSED
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA CAUSING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF STRAIGHT LINE
WIND DAMAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. AS PART OF THIS SQUALL LINE, THERE
WAS ONE AREA THAT RECEIVED DAMAGE THAT WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF A
BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN.

IN RESPONSE TO THIS DAMAGE, A SURVEY TEAM OF NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS COMPLETED AN ASSESSMENT OF THE AREA JUST
OUTSIDE OF HACKLEBURG IN MARION COUNTY. THESE ARE THEIR FINDINGS:

...MARION COUNTY TORNADO...

EVENT DATE: FEBRUARY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: EF-0 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 75-80
INJURIES/FATALITIES: NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 34.2858/-87.8578 AT 1018 PM
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 34.2878/-87.8482 AT 1018 PM
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 0.5
DAMAGE WIDTH (IN YARDS): 100

AS PART OF A SQUALL LINE, THE TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE TOWN OF HACKLEBURG. TRAVELING ON THE GROUND
FOR ONLY 1/2 MILE, THE TORNADO DID CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO A NUMBER
OF CHICKEN BARNS AND OUTBUILDINGS IN THE AREA, EXTENSIVELY LIFTING
TIN ROOFS AND OVERHANGS.

WARNINGS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING #009 WAS IN EFFECT FROM 935 PM
UNTIL 1015 PM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING #011 WAS IN EFFECT FROM
1010 PM UNTIL 1100 PM. TORNADO WARNING #004 WAS IN EFFECT FROM
957 PM UNTIL 1030 PM.

Mississippi Delta Region

EF1 and EF2
Tornado #1 West Carroll Parish La
The tornado first touched down near the intersection of highways 585 and 835 in the northwest part of West Carroll Parish. A grain truck was overturned first. Significant damage occurred to the roof of a church and minor damage occurred to the nearby parsonage. Then, the tornado knocked down a very large tree, which fell on a shed and the corner of a house. Two people narrowly escaped harm from this falling tree. As the tornado continued to move east-northeast, it destroyed a small shed, damaged a larger shed, and blew out some windows of a house. A large antenna was also significantly bent over. A travel trailer was turned about 45 degrees into a garage. The next structure the tornado encountered was a double-wide trailer, which had a large part of the roof blown off. Finally, another trailer was turned over in Kilbourne. Numerous trees were snapped and uprooted along the path.
Rating:EF-1
Estimated Maximum Wind:95 mph
Casualties:none
Damage Path Length:6 miles
Maximum Path Width:75 yards

Tornado #2 Grace Mississippi

The tornado started at Grace, where it downed a few large trees and caused minor roof damage to several homes. The tornado continued into Sharkey County, and just after crossing Dry Bend Road it destroyed a metal outbuilding, scattering tin and other debris a mile downstream. Part of the roof of another larger metal building was taken off at the same location, along with a couple of trees snapped. From here the tornado mainly passed through open fields for a couple of miles, although trees could be seen down along some tree lines. As the tornado approached US Highway 61, it turned more east-northeastward and downed more trees and rolled some equipment at a farm shop. As it crossed Highway 61, it snapped or downed at least 6 wooden power poles. It also caused significant shingle damage to a frame home and downed several trees and large limbs. The tornado then moved back into inaccessible farm fields, and is assumed to have dissipated shortly thereafter.
Rating:EF-2
Estimated Maximum Wind:115 mph
Casualties:none
Damage Path Length:6.5 miles
Maximum Path Width:400 yards

Round 2!!!

2011-02-25T14:55:00.006-06:00

Well we got round 1 out of the way with just a few scratches. There were 253 total storm reports as the system fired up and progressed eastward. Of the 253 there were just 12 tornado reports nation wide, with none in Alabama. Now we turn our attention to round 2 which now looks to be a daytime event. With this afternoons model runs the whole system looks to have slowed down and now the main window for storm activity will be 5-6am thru 4-5pm Monday. A daytime event (do not get me wrong) is a better event to have because people are awake and can take cover more quickly and spotters can actually see anything that happens and can report it better to the NWS and EMA. It looks as if the primary surface low will be well to the north, all modes of severe weather will be very possible for us across the South. This setup will be robust compared to the one we just had. Below are a few model outputs valid at noon on Monday,although the SB Cape is not overly impressive that does not matter to much. Notice the STP is over 2 units and the supercell composite are both very impressive and the Helicity is high enough to support rotating updrafts that may develop. The one bad thing about daytime events is the kids will be in school, so Monday will be a day for you to be able to hear watches and warnings that may fire. Stay tunes as we will fine tune this over the weekend.

Day 3 outlook

NAM Supercell Composite Noon Monday

500mb Vortmax Noon Monday

NAM STP Noon Monday

NAM Significant Severe Index Noon Monday

NAM SB Cape Noon Monday

GFS Noon Monday

1km Helicity noon Monday

Round 1 Tomorrow Night; Round 2 Sunday

2011-02-23T16:02:00.004-06:00

ROUND 1
Well the SPC has a moderate risk of severe weather in place tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night from near Shreveport to Memphis, with a slight risk across much of North Central Alabama. I have been talking to a few local meteorologists in Mississippi and we all agree that a few strong tornadoes are possible around the Mississippi Delta region (this could include long track tornadoes). Across Alabama the squall line should enter NW Alabama sometime around 10pm and exit the state sometime during the mid morning hours on Friday. Our primary threat will be strong straight line winds (but we cannot rule out a tornado warning or two)so stay tuned to local weather sources and make sure your NOAA radio has fresh batteries. Below is the RPM model valid at midnight Thursday night. It clearly shows the squall line crossing the Alabama/Mississippi line.

Round 2
This system will be coming in on Sunday, but there is a little model madness on the timing. So lets get Round 1 out of here first then we can get a grasp on Round 2 so stay tuned.

Severe Wx On The Way Thursday

2011-02-22T12:32:00.006-06:00

Well with the the SPC has a large area outline for severe weather on Thursday and Thursday Night Notice the red areas at 30% for severe weather (not 30% for tornadoes). Environmental shear will be sufficient enough for tornado development,as well a damaging straight line winds. An enhanced tornado threat could exist just South of the Surface Low track eastward along the warm front, where the low level shear will be maximized. Stay weather aware throughout the day on Thursday. we will be going live later in the day Thursday as we drive through Mississippi headed towards Arkansas. This route may change depending on later forecasts so stay tuned.

This system will enter the state of Alabama late Thursday Night. It now looks as if this system will have enough CAPE and better dynamic support as well. So people in Alabama will need to make sure they have means to hear of any warnings that may be issued.

Severe Potential About To Start Gearing Up.

2011-02-21T09:48:00.006-06:00

Thursday nigth Midnight

SPC outlook for Thursday/Thursday Night

Well here we go after a long, hard, and cold winter we could be looking at some severe weather This is the day 4 outlook valid for Thursday and Thursday Night. As you can see the SPC has a very large area defined with this outlook and it does include the NW corner of Alabama from Huntsville to the West including the cities of Athens, Muscle Shoals, and Florence. While right now it looks as if the cold front will lose its upper support as it moves into Alabama after midnight Thursday night, we are not expecting anything major with this one south of the Tennessee River, but a strong storm or two here in North Alabama is possible. Points West such as Arkansas and West Tennessee could be under the gun for the bulk of any severe weather including tornadoes on Thursday. We are also watching another system that looks to bring us a decent rain chance and if the GFS models continue to verify we could see our first significant severe weather event of 2011.
00z Tuesday March 1st VortMax

00z Tuesday March 1st

Stay tuned as this begins to unfold and remember you can see my stream live by clicking the link on the right side of the page or at severestudios.com also listen for my field reports on WAFF 48 news in North Alabama

More Cold On The Way

2011-02-02T09:38:00.007-06:00

Anyone remember this Aerosmith song?
I'm back
I'm back in the saddle again
I'm back
I'm back in the saddle again

Well after a couple day Hiatus with the passing of my mother I am back in the saddle again. So lets get started with what might go on this weekend. As you can see from the three NAM model outputs and the GFS snowfall accumulation models below there is a slim possibility of some frozen precipitation Thursday into Friday and then again as the system moves out on Saturday morning. With that said take a look at the RPM models it shows all cold rain for us and a decent ICE event over in Mississippi. So with the models not in total agreement we will have to wait and see the later models as they come in. Now on to next week more Arctic air looks to be headed our way as a whopper of HIGH Pressure looks to be over Montana next week. We will see another small chance of wintry precipitation early next week then brutal cold. While you see some local forecasts with highs in the 40s, it is real hard for models to get a handle on temps cue to the large snow pack to our North So we could find it hard to get above freezing on Tuesday and Wednesday. Then as you can see by the NAO and the AO we look to go very positive towards the middle of the month. So can we guess that this might be our last big Arctic Blast next week, I know a lot of people would hope so. Stay tuned for more as models come in later.

Midnight Thursday Night

6am Friday Morning

21z Friday

6am Saturday

15z Saturday

Precip Type

RPM valid 6am Friday

RPM Valid Noon Friday

NAO

AO

Low Cape/High Shear Event Could Be Unfolding Tuesday Night

2011-01-29T08:23:00.003-06:00

Just a quick update on Tuesday. We will be watching the for development of the Mesoscale because based on the low position on the GFS, it should put us in the warm sector with some reasonably good dynamics for strong to severe thunderstorms. Although even with Low Cape severe wx is still possible. Below is the latest model runs with SB Cape and SRH 9storm Relative Helicity). Across the south we are accustomed to Low Cape/ High Shear Events. So do not let you guard down, below is some examples of these type events. We are monitoring it closely so stay tuned for updates.

1KM SRH Tuesday Night Midnight

SB Cape Tuesday Night Midnight

Low-instability, high-shear severe weather events in the Southeast are a threat during the winter months and one that is not well advertised to the public. While most of the situations noted above were covered by a tornado watch, the threat of severe weather was not highlighted days in advance as with more "classic" severe weather outbreaks; in fact, the January 7, 2007 Day 1 severe weather outlook did not include a Slight Risk in all areas affected by tornadoes until the 1630Z outlook, the third one of the day. The silver lining is that due to the lack of instability, any tornado or severe weather event is usually not as severe as those events where instability is more plentiful, although there are exceptions; a similar setup produced an EF3 tornado in Carroll County, Georgia on February 26, 2008…while a severe thunderstorm warning was in effect, no tornado warning was issued (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/html/tor22608.shtml). While there may not be an official "protocol" to better forecast these such events on the mesoscale, looking at synoptic features that come into play a day or two in advance and treating any bit of convection that develops during the event as capable of producing severe weather, regardless of the amount of lightning or instability accompanying it, could be a better modus operandi in low-instability, high-shear situations. Some forecasting and warning techniques that are employed during tornado outbreaks in tropical systems (limited instability due to the central dense overcast arnd incredible shear values…sound familiar?) could also be utilized in cold season events with a lack of instability. All in all, improved short-term forecasting can help the area be better prepared for the abnormal severe weather setups that sometimes occur in the winter months in Alabama and Georgia.

The winter of 2006-07 was characterized by extreme cold in some parts of Alabama and Georgia, and as a result, moisture was slow to advect into the area after frontal passages. In this span of time, there were a few instances of high-shear, low-instability severe weather events in the area. The first such event occurred on November 30, 2006, in western Alabama. A low-topped line of convection approaching the border from Mississippi that night was energized by a high amount of shear in the atmosphere, as evidenced by the 00Z Birmingham sounding that yielded a 0-3 km helicity value of a whopping 273 m2/s2 and a 0-6 km shear value of 63 kt despite a CAPE value of just 162 J/kg (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/061130/index.html). Despite the lack of lightning or thunder with the line of showers, they would go on to produce four tornadoes in Hale and Marengo counties, one of which was an F0 (this was before the advent of the Enhanced Fujita scale) and three of which were F1's, and several reports of wind damage in the Tuscaloosa and Birmingham areas (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/significant_events/2006/11_30/index.php). While the Hale County storms were warned by the NWS in Birmingham, there was no tornado warning issued for Marengo County, which ironically was the heavier-populated county of the two struck by tornadoes. The unique situation was forecast on the synoptic scale with a slight risk issued by the Storm Prediction Center, but the lack of resemblance to a "classic" severe thunderstorm prevented timely warnings.

Watching Next Week!!!!!

2011-01-28T20:15:00.002-06:00

Well as you can see the AO (Arctic Oscillation) is finally going positive for a change. What does that mean for us? Well it means warmer temps for a little bit, but as we all know warm temps in the middle of winter can spell trouble. That is exactly what we are looking at for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. As you can see from the GFS output below the LOW should be near Memphis Tuesday Night at Midnight and that clearly puts us here in North Alabama in the warm sector, and if there is adequate instability to develop, we will have some risk of severe convection. At this moment it looks as if the main window for any strong or severe storms will be between 3-4pm Tuesday evening thru 4-5am Wednesday Morning. The one thing we are looking for is the Instability values to go up. If this happens we may very well have a decent severe weather outbreak across portions of the Southeast. Also below is the 1km SRH and looks to be off the charts Tuesday Night. Stay tuned for later and more frequent updates.
AO

12z GFS valid Tuesday Night midnight

1km SRH valid Tuesday Night Nidnight

Winter Storm Warning For North Alabama

2011-01-25T13:01:00.000-06:00

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
100 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LIKELY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IN COMBINATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-260300-
/O.UPG.KHUN.WS.A.0002.110126T0600Z-110126T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KHUN.WS.W.0002.110126T0600Z-110126T1800Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...
FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER
100 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED: RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND
THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST
ALABAMA... AND THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES.
THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE
RIVER AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

* OTHER HAZARDS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND
WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

Updated Look At Possibilities For Snow Accumulations

2011-01-25T11:49:00.002-06:00

As most may know NWS Memphis has issued a winter storm warning for North Mississsippi and portions of West Tennessee based on the latest data. As of right now the NWS in Huntsville is still under a winter storm watch so with this data I have changed my accumulation map just a little bit.

At This point the best estimate for significant accumulating
snows will be along and near a line from Holly Springs Mississippi,Sommerville Tennessee,Jackson,Savanah,and Decaturville
Tn. This is where the cold air should interact with the heaviest precipitation.

The strong dynamics and possible heavy banding potential could lead to localized accumulations of 8" or more. Stay tuned for updates as this map more than likely will change again before the day is over.

Snow Overnight Tonight

2011-01-25T08:15:00.005-06:00

Below is my thinking on who will get what and how much. I looked at different model outputs and locations of the precipitation along with other input to reach this decision. It looks like the deformation band should form in South Central Tennessee and rotate SE in to the NE Alabama Counties.Dynamic cooling associated with the upper low, and cold air advection on the back side of the departing surface low will mean rain changing to snow after midnight with the changeover around 1am in the NW corner of the state and 3am in the Huntsville metro. The heaviest snow should be East of I-65. I do believe there will be a few heavy bands of snow will develop and Thundersnow is possible. If you happen to get under the heavier bands the totals will go up. The 5"+ totals are for extreme East Tennessee closer to the low and where I believe some heavier bands will be.. All of our snow is going to come in on the backside of the LOW not with the main system. The snow will be very wet and heavy at times but should all be gone Wednesday night as highs will reach the low 40s Wednesday afternoon. If you live south of US HWY 278 you might see a few flakes is why I went with a mix and for the Birmingham area south should be all rain. Stay tuned for updates later today and tonight on our facebook page (link on the right side of the page). Any snowfall reports and pictures will be greatly appreciated. Please send pictures to Tommy@severestudios.com

Winter Storm Knocking On Our Door!!!!!!!!

2011-01-24T16:41:00.000-06:00

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED: RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND THEN
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST
ALABAMA...AND THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND TWO TO FOUR
INCHES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME HEAVIER NARROW
BANDING OF SNOW MAY OCCUR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH SPECIFIC SNOW AMOUNTS STILL EXISTS.

* OTHER HAZARDS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

* IMPACTS: SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS ACROSS THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND ICE ON AREA
ROADS...GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
SOME SNOW WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

Will It Rain Or Snow????????

2011-01-24T07:58:00.006-06:00

Ok here we go. Over the past few days I have shown you model outputs after model output, well today I am not going to show you anything I will just tell you. All the current models show a very cold rain for Alabama on Tuesday due to warm air at 5000' at the same time, a cold core upper low will move right on top of us and this is were it gets fun. Like I posted yesterday on the December 1997 event forecast highs were in the 50s and 4-8" of snow was dumped on a small part of Alabama/Miss dropping highs into the 30s a good ways of the forecast high. If you will remember last week there was 2 days the forecast high was in the upper 40s to low 50s and we never got out of the 30s. This setup is almost identical to that. Temperatures at 500 mb (about 18,000-20,000 feet up) are forecast to drop to near -25 to -30 degrees (C) over near dawn on Wednesday. So like I mentioned over the weekend we will have dynamic cooling associated with the upper low, so no doubt it will bring colder air down from above. These Cold Core setups can produce a little more snow than you think. Somebody over North Alabama could wind up with 2-4 inches or more,I want to stress COULD While others away from the Core will get nothing but a cold rain. The area that could see snow could be a 100 miles wide or 25 miles wide so be prepared for anything. I will also put out an accumulation map later tonight after other models come in during the day. If snow does fall it will be after midnight Wednesday as the system is on the way out, and no worries anything that falls will only be around about a day unlike the Jan 9-10 storm because no arctic air will be in place. Welcome to the wonderful world of trying to pinpoint winter weather. There is also a system on or around groundhogs day that looks funky as well. Latest runs on it are a little warmer than past runs but it bares watching. Stay tuned

Another Look At The Next System (NOT A FORECAST)

2011-01-23T14:54:00.004-06:00

Well before anyone gets their hearts either broken for the chance of rain instead of snow or excited that it is looking like a rain event just hear me out. Below you can see what each model is saying that could happen at midnight Wednesday. The Canadian, NAM, JMA, and the Euro still are showing a decent chance of snow across North Alabama. The GFS and NoGaps have the rain/snow line well northwest of the state, but with ample moisture. The HPC is going with a moderate chance of (50-60%)4"+ across North Alabama. We are in the same place we was in December 14th 1997 when Several inches of snow accumulated along a narrow band across central Mississippi and Alabama on December 14th 1997. This snow band occurred beneath a deformation zone that formed just to the north and northwest of the cold cloud shield "pivot point" associated with a nearly barotropic (vertically stacked) closed low (500 hPa | 350 hPa) along the Gulf Coast. Dynamic cooling by falling precipitation was sufficient to maintain surface temperatures near or just below freezing, allowing the snow to accumulate along the northwestern fringe of the precipitation shield. The slow movement of the deformation zone/snow band also contributed to the heavy snow totals (4 to 8 inches). Some model guidance suggests mostly rain here with no major snow on the back side of the system, but we all know how wrong guidance can be with a big time ULL passing overhead. Dynamic cooling can make for some very large snow amounts.
I will look at the models tomorrow morning after the 006/00z runs are complete and way my official forecast with any accumulations that may happen. This can still go in either direction for us.

Probability of 24 hour Snow from the HPC

NoGaps Midnight Wednesday

NAM 6am Wednesday

JMA Midnight Wednesday

GFS Midnight Wednesday

Euro Midnight Wednesday

Canadian Midnight Wednesday

Ok Here We Go Will It Rain Or Will We Have snOMG part 2

2011-01-22T15:24:00.007-06:00

We must get through Monday first as a weak disturbance looks to bring a small chance of rain, sleet, and some snow late Sunday night into Monday morning. NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. Then it should turn to all rain later in the morning. With all the rain on Monday is a good thing because the atmosphere will already be saturated unlike last week when you could see snow on radar for an hour before you started seeing it fall. Now to Tuesday: First let me stress the importance of this as right now THIS IS NOT A FORECAST. There are a few things that can go wrong with this system. #1 the Low could track further to the south and give us absolutely nothing, and #2 the lack of arctic air at the surface might keep us from a massive snow totals, in that there is still some variation in the models about the depth of the cold air and the specific position of the deepening surface low. But with that said The NAM, GFS,ECMWF, Canadian, UKMET and the JMA are all on board for what could be a pretty decent snow event for parts of Alabama Tuesday.Good model agreement means a higher confidence in the possibility of snow in Alabama sometime between noon Tuesday and noon Wednesday Each of the Models below show amazing snowfall potential with the rain/snow line in a prime position for all of North, Central, and East Alabama. Does this resemble 1993 in one way sorta, as the LOW looks to track up the east coast the same way. The ways it does not #1 no hurricane force winds, # no record breaking cold, and #3 if it happens we could see more snow in Huntsville than in 93. Right now we really need the cold air to dip further down in our direction because if it does not we may see a very cold suckish rain event. We can get snow at 36 degrees and if it the LOW takes the northern track as it looks to do it could snow hard and fast enough to bring the temps down to 32F or colder. I believe it will happen but I want to see tonight's models before I put out an accumulation map. Forecast highs for Huntsville/Madison are around 34-36F with the LOWS in the mid 20s so that will help. Stay tuned for updates on Twitter @Ala_StormChaser and on Facebook Tennessee Valley Storm Trackers

Canadian Model valid 18z Tuesday

GFS model valid 18z Tuesday

Euro model valid 18z Tuesday

12z run of the NAM 500MB vortmax valid 12z Wednesday

12z NAM run valid 00z Wednesday

12z run of GFS valid 00z Wednesday

JMA valid 12z Wednesday

Well 3 Snows Down, More On The Horizon.

2011-01-20T21:24:00.004-06:00

Here we go again. The latest snowfall although small amounts it was measurable with 1/2" here in Madison is finally over. We now turn our attention to next weeks systems as they are two out there. We are going to look at the early system first. As you can see there is a little model madness on timing with it some have it Monday and others on Tuesday. Below are a few models we look at, the GFS, NAM, EURO, CANADIAN, and the JMA. Each one shows enough moisture as well as cold enough temps to support another possible Southern Snowstorm. At this time we are not even going to look at possible amounts because we really do not want to get your hopes up or hopes smashed. We will touch on that aspect over the the next couple days. There is a chance this will all disappear and be nothing but rain. As you can see from each model the 540 line is just barely into north Alabama so it will be a fine line to watch. The moisture should not be a problem as the QPF from 6pm Monday to Noon on Tuesday average .31"-.47 so far. This will go up and down depending on how the models see the Gulf Low Tracking so we will see.

Canadian 18z Monday

Euro 18z Monday

JMA 12z Tuesday

GFS 00z Tuesday

Euro 00z Tuesday

NAM Surface Temps 12z Monday

DGEX surface Temps 06z Monday

GFS Surface Temps 00z Tuesday

Snow Possible Overnight Thursday into Friday

2011-01-19T08:34:00.006-06:00

Ok here is the latest look at what if any potential we will see over night Thursday. The GFS is fairly dry on the latest run but the NAM is real bullish on the moisture and shows a decent accumulation for the Tennessee Valley. Now the NAM is the outlier model here but it did nail the last to events so it is possible. I will look at the models this afternoon and put out my accumulation charts tonight. Any snowfall should begin falling after about 8pm on Thursday and be ended by 6am Friday 1-2" possible. We will continue to watch systems along the coast over the next few weeks as 1 LOW after another develops and throws moisture our way. There now is a good chance of rain Monday and it will be a close call on wintry precipitation so we will not forecast any right now so stay tuned.

GFS Surface temps at 12am Friday

GFS accumulation snow possibilities 12 am Friday

NAM surface temps 12am Friday

NAM moisture potential 12am Friday

Another look at the NAM snow accumulations 12am Friday

NAM snow accumulation forecast